Typhoon Tip

No idea who Ryan Sutter is ... or what his creds are in the field of operational Meteorology, but ... that chart sequence that was ferreted out of the "Twits-sphere" does echo these sentiments I made to Brian yesterday, "but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east. .." It's been odd - the last heat wave really did not come via a classic circulation construct over mid latitude of N/A ... And this secondary sort of "emergent" tendency to succeed heat despite the heat-crippled isohypsotic layout has been a recurrent theme. The bigger heat wave from 10 or so day prior, that one had a bit more 'ridged' look to it, but even it left some to be desired... I don't know how long that behavior of "over achieving warmth relative to the structure of the flow" is going to persist, but... it seems to be a trend.. That sequenced charting by Ryan above isn't a surprise as it seems the models are off to the same antic of figuring out how to get AN with a cooler look. It's funny how these emergent complexions seems to take place ... One really can't accurately get a sense of the sensible weather ... without understanding/considering these emergent trends that are ..more like synergistic -

I warned people last week ... not that it matters - wasn't like it could be stopped. But the models could not have been more clear about sending that terminating planetary wave event ( waa off Europe's heat wave) right over those lat/lons...

yeah...and I realize we're just speakin in jest anyway. but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east.

"shocked" ... heh - nothing shocks me in this thing. geez, most climate models have been underdone... throwin' another +4 or +5er up there doesn't seem as hard to me anyway...

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.

I haven't looked that closely at the synopsis of the day this morning ... but did glance at SPC's 'Slight" for the M/A and wondered how being further away from that factor, they would ( I guess? ) go with CAPE genesis... interesting -

If folks are interested in other evidences abroad... I am sure there are more, but this article out on Phys.org's Earth Science portal related to United Kingdom ... https://phys.org/news/2019-07-scientists-warmest-uk-years.html

It seems there's an underpinning 'agenda' to keep this year elevated above 2012 ... I guess for the sake of records? I'm curious because I'm not sure why we are so preoccupied by finite distinctions and what those mean to specific records, when the specter of what's happening over the last 20 years is far more telling. I would certainly hope that no one is coveting or even abstractly taking comfort in a acre less melt if it comes to that... In any case, last week I mentioned that the heat wave in western Europe was modeled to plausibly affect Greenland and now ..headlines to that effect are indeed foisted. Granted CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/31/europe/greenland-heatwave-climate-crisis-intl/index.html , ... tends to spin toward aggrandizing in any attempt toward ratings that turn the gears of their media-profit-machine ... we'll just have to see if corroboration surfaces ... I believe some acceleration is likely though. The deep tropospheric heat anomaly effectively severed, formulated a high latitude blocking node ...and that feature has since been retrograding toward Greenland. Still carrying along with it actual warm thicknesses within the anomalously tall H500 isohypsotic surfaces - in other words...a balloon of warm rich ice-sheet melting air - I was wondering if this may enhance the seasonal melt rate. Seems to be at least according to CNN's dystopian formula - The question is, if so ... does any of this also effect an acceleration of ice loss in the total arctic?

Hartford was in line as of three days ago.

Catching up in 90 days as well

Boston too

The conjecture in here is akin to water cooler speculation ... but still, we can't really draw conclusions that way. Addiction would have to be science per a particular circumstance before approaching those judgments. Like,... is it even possible that iPhone or Android or whatever the distraction, is capable of countermanding a million years of mother instincts with their kids. I know that phone "addiction" is unsavory to observe and embarrassing ( really ) to think about, but that should still seem unlikely. This is not the same insidious scenario as a couple of heroin users strung out and stooped over in the front seat of a minivan while their three-year-old is square mouthed crying in the back seat ... and the cops trying to figure out how in the hell Humanity ever arrived to that particular point in time ... It's a phone... It didn't 'cause' the mother/father/parent to execute the three to four complete body motions required to securely lock a child in a car on a high sun hot day. The parent did that - is it possible... ? Of course...but that total scenario is less than likely.

- instrumentation? what's at stake? We know that no instrument is exact - that's just quantum physical limitation ... That's one way to look at it. Yeah yeah.. you're talking about bigger errors than decimals (suspecting...) But why exactly does it matter in the present conversation? Frankly, if a given site is off, isn't it ( most likely ) off by a consistent amount? Just correct for that amount. I mean obviously it's better to have a given site calibrated to some acceptable standard for error, but, ...since we don't live in a perfect world - not sure why it matters if Boston is 97 when it's really 95.8 on a hot day ... or whatever. What is gained back by it not quite being as hot by what ultimately is an in-germane amount. It just seems a lot of energy (pun) is being applied to this as of late and it's crushingly obsessing It's warm It's warmer than normal It's probably in some small part GW attributed ... but mostly just the pattern we are in... Whittling down a site from 97.6 to 95.9 doesn't alter the essence and significance of these statements. Hm. I guess it depends on the application - I certainly wouldn't want my physician to be so cavalier with my pace-maker settings, huh haha.

There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W. As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics. I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here. Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands. It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area. Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC 3,500 K miles west. For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges.

Air quality was terrible this morning... Still and stagnant overnight, we've capped civility's farts with unwanted proficiency - In the days of yore ...this would be pure Earth contamination ... bio-mist-related, which I'm sure came with it's own headaches. But this...? it's ( headaches + mankind's putrescence)/2 = some kind of vagarious journey through wafts of various automobile exhaust types, then the ozone faux freshness its self, followed by something that smells like black mold spores... dumpster fires... just eegh Edit, okay ... there is an AQ alert in addition to the heat alert in effect. it's going to be a miserable one boys and girls.

I realize you were not directing this rhetoric toward me... I believe the Siberian/northern Asia cold plume is more likely a 'synergistic' effect ... an emergent property of changing the global circulation engine that is part of the warming world. In other words, cool the planet back down the 5F it's gained in the last 30 or whatever years it took to gather that differential... and Siberia would be just cold as opposed to demonstratively offsetting... If I had to put my money on it...the N-NE Pacific semi-perennial vortex ( also the Icelandic lows) have been deeper and more powerful and the terminating warm advection at higher latitudes is beefing up the bloacking in key geographic areas that subsequently favor dumping ... or rather defaulting cold heights in Siberia/N Asia. I would have to think that it is perhaps multi-century ephemeral ? Sounds like an oxymoron but we gotta consider...when compared to geological million year time spans, 100 years is almost immediate - so in that context it is transient. As the polar regions continue to warm at a disproportionately faster rate ...eventually the ambient gradients will begin to weaken - I mean .. talking ages and ages into the future, barring something really weird... When that happens, the semi-permanent vortexes begin to break down and that stops pumping heights into ridging and the negative nodes concomitantly weaken... But that's like 500 years out there... The fact of the matter is... ( and no one asked for this sentence I'm about to say..) long before getting there, the global ecology and environment will no longer be sustainable to 7.5 billion non-cooperating assholes running around trying to procure for themselves... But I digress -

Yeah in all honestly ... this is just something I have noticed... Some 2/3rds of the months since 1999 ...the global graphical heat source and sink annotations from various scientific sourcing (NCEP ...NASA and University research...etc..) have favored SE Can/NE U.S. with "blue" months... 2/3rds is not every time. And, 33% is still a big number... When it's red here...it's red. So it's probably a subtler tendency/distinction, and probably not really statistically significant compared to the consequences going on all over the place, either, but it's something that I have noticed where we blue more than red. But, blue in that context is till above normal..That's why I was careful to point out, "relative min" I mean ...it's above normal everywhere - what are we talking about ... decimal values of variance where one region's a tenth warmer/cooler than the mean...? Build a nuclear shelter why don't ya... That said, I've counted five France to interior Europe and India big historic heat events comparable to the 2012 heat wave in the heartland to M/A regions of the U.S... to just that one event here. Again, I think since the oceans have empirically been shown to have absorbed the initial global warming, c/o NASA: "... The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969..." I think this is jamming perennial heights higher than normal into the NE Pacific... which would tend to a NW mass conserving flow mean through Canada and that may be a why. This is all muddled further by ( imho ) this mock Maunder minimum return stuff with solar. It's not taken seriously enough ...probably because GW is masking it ( both by numbers...and by media meme/popularity), but... the AO is scheduled to favor negative through 2030... well...

I'm sure you've read my rants on this in this in the past ... but, to paraphrase, this entire last two decades has observed SE/E Canada and the NE U.S. in a relative min compared to the whole planet's "hockey-sticking" climate curve... We keep assessing above normals without the kind of extremes that come with it, while regions abroad suffer severity/frequency we've lagged on. It's hard to know why that is... Heights tend to -EPO the NE Pacific because of the ocean heat source ... I think? That would cause a mass-conserved NW flow over the interior of the continent... tending to mitigate some % of 'big heat' potential... "Some %" not being all -

haha

Tempted to call this a 'sneaky' heat wave ... but I don't know how onto this we've been frankly. I know I tried to bring awareness to this era for being a 'low grade heat wave' potential, whence last week was in the guidance ( suggestively..) but I've been surfacing Narra. this weekend and haven't paid attention. Echo other's sentiments - been doing this trip over 10 years with old college buddies and this may be the best combination of water temp, air temp, sky condition and wave dynamics yet.. Altho - I'm not 24 any more and can feel it after Roman Greco wrestling with the surf under that hot sun all weekend. Holy hell - But lower prone location could be talking 95 and 97s today and tomorrow respectively. Looking around at climo sites and their earlier machine numbers ...looks like they generally busted MOS by 3 on the plus side. I suspect that margin behavior may play out again, given to the stagnant conditions and the elevating overnight lows. Perfect conditions for heating with virtual no cloud, west wind... and DPs not being out of control. 71 at 6:30 am down in the typical cool Nashoba Valley ... and it was already 78 on 290 E heading down the hill out of Worcester around 6:55. That spread/behavior is on part with those big heat days last week. Though the 850s are not as warm, I have noticed they warmed in the guidance as we got closer. It's in the 17 C range just eyeballing the FRH grid. ...and with the lower DPs, I suspect unlike last week, the temp side of this can bust warmer by a little. 95 and 97, where achieved are big heat numbers - we'll see where the HI's extend. The heat alert issuance is warranted -

Not to be dinky sounding but... I usually follow the 582 isohypses ' ... if/when north of our latitude, even in sloped and/or cyclonic curvatures...we tend to find our way above 564 dm thicknesses ..with a shot at 570

Europe's recent heat wave is pinching off a warm secluded ridge node and is modeled to slide west toward Greenland. I'm wondering if that may bring warming conditions to the terrestrial interface/boundary layer

GW as being a fallacy: objectivity elided/forced by an opposition that is more likely incapable of perceiving consequence for their stance - 'else, they would not do that. The reasons for that inability are varied from individual to individual, special interest group to special interest group... But by and large, mostly because the specter of what it all means is probably just too untenable within the vaster multi-facets of society, and would not resonate based on verbal warnings alone. However, written on the epitaph of Humanity's headstone, "this is just a fad concern". The human gestalt has never responded as well to threats that are vocal, ..which, compounding, the early efforts to do so attacked the institutions that have procured multiple generations of successful living ( by and large ...) - very bad PR. Compared to when the perception of the threat is corporeal in nature? If a threat can be seen, touched, smelled, felt, or tasted ... people move out of the way. Even now... as the measurements are arriving in clear, coherent datum ... Pompeiians tried to run - when they could finally see it... For everyone else, it would most certainly be abhorrently stirring to deny what was scienced decades ago...and is verifying in the Global environment today. Akin to being warned not to grab the red hot poker... grabbing it, then attempting to persuade people it is not really hot - the onus of persuasion really falls on the other side of that debate at this point if anything at all.... The correlation to the ending preposition - related to global warming - is more likely true than not, given all science on the matter. This all hearkens to a separate issue having to do with modern technology and conveniences effecting perceptions. People are being protected by the former, in such a way ...a bad decision here and there...is no longer resulting in as dire of consequence for a miss-calculation. Integrate that culturally over... it's not helping the AGW--> consequence model in a positive way. As my professorial circle of associates and I have discussed, ...this is as much a sociological crisis as it is a physical sciences one - and until the former is equally addressed... the solutions for the latter will be partial at best.

Word. I've been advertising this me self - Interestingly, the GFSX MOS teeters with a big heat suggestion for Tuesday ... 93s and 94s... I think that's 95 or 96 accounting for climo dimming - It's probably a fropa in there helping to better mix and transport a bit richer stripe out ahead. It's like we get 1 to 2 clicks every day