Typhoon Tip

oh i know - ...just bustin' balls... Frankly, I hope that we ( finally ) get a front loader winter... Man, ... okay okay, so it's not statistically on point to expect that, but still... 2 in 7 should be at least more active between Thanks giggedy and spendmas...with 1 and 10 down right performing. ...it's the 1:10 that we're due on.. and by that, pack the whole way... Gee say it like that, it's 1:28 I think 2010 is the last big Dec we had but don't quote me... Otherwise... 2007 and 2008 back to back were good front winters ... I think... I know the best I ever experienced was 1995 while living on campus at UML. We had still morning cold fall leaf litter in early November ... Rivulets of ice on the shade side of the Canal where the the water trickles from betwixt the granite blocks... And one afternoon 3:50 or so...with the sun oblique upon the western horizon, the ice still clung at 44 F ... Meanwhile, NYC couldn't get below 60 - kind of a gradient look I suspect... Either way, a week later we had 3-5 mix/snow/zr ... and that was it. No idea what Earth looked like until the super nova thaw of late January, '96... Now THAT is how you run an early loader. Anyway, mix feelings on the prospects for early antics this go. We've seen an astonishingly persistent -AO in summer and it's been readily observable in modeling and verified height nodes retrograding across high latitudes. Stockholm syndrome alone would argue we sail into colder climes with blocks sending cold loads and up against unusually warm west Atlantic/bite waters? Mm mm tasty. Buuuut... the QBO is out of whack with the AO... The two are persistently expressing in the negative correlation ...which by definition should imply it's unstable and can't last - yet it has. ...Four months and counting. I'm almost inclined to believe that concurrent phasing may be a artifice of summer ...and that the hemisphere operates more so in quadrature as opposed to more like seamless integral. I mean it never is...seamless ... but, there's a reason the PNA isn't even correlated to the other indices at CDC, JJA,...because the R-wave construct concomitantly breaks down the standard teleconnector models... So, ...intuitively... it may stand to reason that the +QPB/-AO unlikeliness is merely an accident of season. If so...oy - ...that may not be so good for winter... Because, when the gradients increase the thing winds up again ... the integral tightens, the correlations turn back on... does that mean the -AO flips into the preferred statistical suggestion. Which is positive. I hope not... Because nothing is worse for a weather enthusiast than 30 straight days of inactive dearth in a positive temperature anomaly in winter.

Good thing there's no support for that sort of look in the extended, too -

wonder what'll it be after this ...

Hmeh... It's a nice air cleansed summer day... not much more to me, not when it's going to be 82 or 83 this afternoon. Nice to have a lowered DP though... sure. It's funny how our minds work... First sniff of cooler anything and we rev up of the deep autumn nostalg. Kinda like My Cousin Vinny: " ... It appears to me that you want to skip the arraignment process, go directly to trial, skip that, and get a dismissal," only here ... we want to dismiss summer. It was Aug 4 the other day and I read someone suggesting it's almost over because a swamp maple tinged.. ah..yeeeah I kinda of think of that as fantasizing baseballs return because pitchers and catchers happen to report on Feb 1 - ...nah, unfortunately the season is a long, long, long-long way off... haha. Summers have cool patterns... I'm not even sure this is the "shot across the bow" air mass that heralds the summer's decline, actually ... Unfortunately...having said that ... I have to risk sounding hypocritical though - this is an unusual summer. First of all the QBO has been in a robust westerly phase ...and rather inconsistent with that, the AO has been predominating in the negative phase state. It may be that the instraseasonal linkage/physical processes that do so ... break down in the summer, then reassert in the winter. I'm not sure.. .But,...sustaining +10 to +20 QBO with a mean minus 2 SD AO is not a typical correlation ... not a concurrent phase state I've read about. Supposed to be the other way around... I think perhaps the summer is different than the winter. The QPF phasing may channel through the Ozone dispersion science...which is partial in the SSW stuff... That much I know is winter only - but I'm speculating there. I'm not sure how that parlays as we the summer weeks really do wane... I wonder if the AO flips signs "just in time" for the stronger cold season correlations to kick in? Possible.... Stolen summer ( relative sense ...) followed by muted winter .... Just exactly what everyone wants to read in this particular social media, huh - Kidding, but ... we have less likely hemispheric phase states going on ... so offers some lowered predictability ...

It's an interesting dichot ... We seem to be teetering between hotter than normal summer ( enter reason here...) and a -AO persistence. The latter is/should promote a shot before the shot across the bow at some point over the next three weeks but the former may flip matters unusually far in the other direction. Big swings.

Source?

Oh k. Yeah Brian. Guess that one was a slam dunk

Yeah. Not sure. At the time I glanced ... there was a discerned DP slope NW-N of Albany with linear activity ... seemed the assumption to make

Well ... if nothing else you certainly come across deeply passionate as a de... wait, you didn't actually deny climate change - unless I glossed over that particular declarative. Haha Which otherwise your contribution is rife with declaratives ... which unfortunately, fall well short of substantive refutation. But think what you're getting at is that a particular weather event can not be causally linked to climate change ... mathematically that's the proper conclusion, because the arithmetic goes in the other direction - climate is N-weather terms divided by the number of events ... yada yada we know this just saying however the frequency of these kinds of intense heat waves is increasing globally - that should be noted. It should also be noted that that, among many other realizations, were also predicted by these climate models which are currently under fire by this discussion. At the end of the day the climate is warming. The numbers bear that out. And if your point is that this single heat wave cannot be blamed on climate change I agree ... but I would caution not using that as some kind of escape from acceptance..

I'm noticing this too... small but perhaps the beginnings to a modality that... frankly, humanity has no choice but to become massively committed to - yeah...long way to got. I'm not mincing words... There are two choice my friends, either control yourselves, or, Nature will impose that control. How do we want it. If it's continued profligate management and selfish lording over the environment in this disposable, selfish entitled attitude? This will all inexorably lead to a forced population correction - In fact... one is probably more necessary ...whether we control that ... or, it happens to us, in spite of us. I hope we're right. These 'warnings' ...they are now being met with a growing database of empirical evidences... And I argue that is the impetus behind this ... call it evolving sentiment we're discussing - for now I'm only giving it that much. 40 C at 40 N in Europe's developed industrial societies has a way of lifting chins.

there's a boundary poorly or non-analyzed extending wsw to ene somewhere between our latitudes... It was 88/67 here out runnin' errands ... Prolly 82/66 or something by the feel of it now

speaking of shots.... jesus -

We're hotter than normal around here and any record breaking is always edging out to do it... for the most part. How come we are not "smashing" them...like they do every else in the world. Put up a 108 at Logan or go f itself... This protecting the biggest environmental pig culture from first hand account of their own shit is really annoying... Norwegians don't deserve it... we do.. just sayn' .... What's going on is that we're barely breaking climate temperatures monthly this and that... but just packing in a lot high nocturnal lows with 93 uninspired days

When I was 10 years old I was balancing along a felled log in the woods behind the house/ Unbeknownst ...what was once hollowed was full of European honey-bees ... Foot punches through, air's a whir with a hideous irate scream...I'm running home in a square-mouthed rage. 14 stings... two of which were on my forehead and my brow line swelled enough to star in a Geico commercial... Oh...and three stings below the waste, above thigh - ...mm hm. Yup. Along with their dead bodies. The rest were back of neck and forearms. Contrary to the fairy tales honey bees are not fun lovin cartoon Disney bugs - I didn't go to the hospital... just sorta hung out on the couch with cold compresses. No reaction beyond anger -

It's a synergistic feedback where they positively re-enforce the others effect/affect - ...

These updrafts are leaners... The vils and mamma bulbs are way out ahead of that activity and rippin' seaward... Too bad there wasn't some lower level shear to go with -

Catch -22... Most people ... they don't really respond. Not beyond nods and brow raises around water coolers, and social functions ...when it comes to these sort of macro-threats. Part of the problem? ...well, most of it actually ... is that it's just too big to be mentally tenable. It's fascinating dystopian novel work and akin to Hollywood cinema ... more so than anything anyone has seen. Therein in is another aspect to the general peril. Humans primary only respond to threats directly perceived via the corporeal senses... Taste, touch, smell, sound and sight... if we don't taste the acid, feel the heat ( though that's changing), smell the rotting carcasses, hear burning woods or see the tsunamis coming over the horizon... meh. We give those polite head nods and acknowledging brow raises...but no one is going to amend their ways without seeing these calamities actually unfolding,. There's the catch-22...by the time they see, them... it's too late. And what makes this catch-22 extraordinarily textured ( ...if ironic), evolution provide the human species with this incredible power of ingenuity... to master its domain and manipulate the environment. It brought us out of the primordial dependency on just the ecological provisions ( like all other animal species on this planet ), to supplant those guiding proxies over our survival prospects. Now... those inventions that were made to do so? Will end said species -

at work

Jokes aside.... take the average monthly departures over say the past 240 months and divide by 240 - That's probably a reasonable numeric first guess and probably a good one as it creates base-line/launch pad off empirical data - We know that DJF is likely ( intuitively ) to be above normal... barring a weird 2015 Feb I wonder if the -AO summer maginally turns into a +AO winter ...

Let's do a sub-forum contest ... Someone throw up at thread, and everyone that cares enough can put up some numbers - maybe Brian or someone can lock posts once they are submitted? Whatever ... prolly not necessary, as we'll know who posted what... I'd say +3.3 ... which should accommodate ( the base-line propensity for above normal + the blocking AO summer buckling early bow shots post the 15th )/2

The other option is poke it and run ...

64 outside is above the normal low. Funny. It's an acclimation thing ... I suspect. A lot of overages on cool descriptions coming

Home stations keyed into Wunder down 'round deez parts are mid 80s ... Dps... 57 to 61... It's certainly subjectively lowering the HI's but ... but we're objectively heading for above normal despite yesterday's cfropa - This is could be how August behaves ... sort of genetically not having fallen far from the 2019 summer weather genetic tree. The color of this summer's eyes are +3 or +5 ... and it'll just find a way to get there. Fun metaphors aside ... I am noticing the CDC PNA and negative and the CPC variation is also fallen ... even though that tele is almost in-germane at this time of year. But the negative NAO was more east based and is neutralizing ...and that may be more telling that the correction in the GFS trough sag is plausible - yet again... I'm also noticing the LIs are modeled to tank regionally already by tomorrow so... 26 C in the T1 (980 SIGMA) with -4 LI ...prooobably signals more humidity lurks by Sat.

The Yankee fans would say ... "Too bad that's not Fenway ... with the Red Sox IN it"

I happened to step to a large picture window here at the office in Shrewbury as that warned cell was slipping past ... four miles south of this location at most, and was lucky enough to catch a CG that did that exact same "branching" That cell was fantastically proficient with CG of all types, btw. There were countless CGs. ... overlapping at times as they descended from different origins of the over hanging storm cloud structures... Some of the strokes were singular bolts with the typical kinks here and there, but would pulse as many as three times. Then... within a moment later, ...one like that above with the branching. Those did not pulse however. Just bright and instantaneous... I'm wondering if that's polarity of the distroke ... ? Not sure ...but I did notice that the branched distroke CG types were not pulsers.. The single bolts were fantastic blinkers though.