Typhoon Tip

By the way ... I also am wondering if we may see a more robust period of TWs squirt off western Africa over over the next two weeks at some point. Not for not, right amid the climate bell-curve anyway. However, there are some clues in play that favor that. The orientation/distribution of larger scale UVM tendencies has arrived at a dipolar negative western -central N. Atlantic, with a pervasive and coherent positive tendency over all of the African continent extending east to west along the sub-Saharan TW conduit region. There are features also embedded in that monsoonal band a bit more robustly now than prior times. Supposition/hypothesis... But my personal feeling is that ... yes, Saharan Dust/dry air has been present this year, but frankly, I've monitored that metric spanning some fifteen years and this year has not seemed appreciably worse than any other year - despite other's opinions to the contrary. Nevertheless, I am willing to nod to that mitigate as being present to some degree. What really stands out to me as causal in the dearth thus far is the lower TW frequency emerging off of Africa/in transit prior to doing so. If you mix up weak wave tendencies with SAL mitigation ( and it probably doesn't help that the QBO is statistically out of phase for greater activity this season ) that combination is more likely culpable. If we are right about a period of stronger TW ejecta off of Africa, that might give the CV region some entertainment value.

Remarkable agreement among the GFS ensemble 12-member suite provided at PSU E-Wall's web-source, that Dorian will modestly intensify through 120 hours, ending in a position abeam of midriff Florida over the western Bahamas. I haven't seen the individual EPS members but the blend is a bit more smeared comparing to the GEFS. Nevertheless, they do average a weakly bounded cyclone in that similar vicinity just E or partially eclipsing land at 120 hours. One curious note: both the EPS and the GEPs ( Canadian ensembles ) are attempting to develop what looks similar to an October 'climate low' in the mid Gulf - it's not a real Glossary expression. Anyway, the GEFs do hint of this, but it is much more coherently materialized in these other two ensemble cluster means. I'm curious why they are doing so, but have hypothesis - From late September thru early Decembers, it is not uncommon for models to attempt this sort of Gulf of Mexico vortex look. This is classic looking in that regard, the only problem is, vastly earlier than normal. Nevertheless, I suspect it wise to consider it in the same vane. The rub there is that sometimes quasi-asymmetric systems do sort of bend over initially from baroclinic instability at that time of year, in the Gulf, and then acquire warm symmetry in time. Usually up underneath an early/amplified Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP ) construct when it does. I'm wondering if these models are over sensitive; they have been trying at least excuse imaginable on every run to suppress the mid latitude summer ... all summer long, with western heights, and structuring some sort of trough ( usually over blown) back East. It may be more than muse to consider that entity. Because the vitality and most important, reality of any such object in the Gulf at the beginning of the middle range would play a plausible role in the future of Dorian. Some of these operational versions attempt to then vaguely Donna-analog Dorian.. Heh, fun entertainment but, too many uncertainties concomitant with tropical modeling at that range, and particularly endemic to the pattern next week is uncertainty. The introduction of trough in both space and time, inducing that coastal scrape this is all new, and troughs have been tending to flatten in mid ranges --> short range all season long. Past doesn't dictate the future... What are we leaving out here ... basically .1% confidence out of 99.9% uncertainty.

Mm... No not likely. "Year round," as in 'never' gaining ice back at all? That's not likely to be a reality in anyone's lifetime. If you/we mean that N. Hemisphere summers experience transient open sea conditions; that may occur at some point. Who knows if that would be a decade. Timing such a reality would depend upon how "accelerated" the acceleration is, as per recent studies go. There will be an ice-cap-transition period where there are summers with open seas that fluctuate back to ice cover the following winters. In fact, it's entirely possible that would happen with irregularity, too - some years the summer retains a small ice-cap, and then the next year ... the summer sees it disappear again. Only to repeat either scenario. That may go on for quite a while actually, long before any kind of Paleo./eocene thermal max -related sort of redux fully takes over. Anyway, there's going to be some growing pains. These longer term changes can and do take place in shorter orders of time, and acceleration in the present climate models, as well as empirical data do send alarming signals that "shorter" may favored over longer. But, we have to remember, shorter in the context of geology is still a bit of an existential misnomer. But this is not to dissuade you It's better for the world if folks are open-minded, vigilant toward more dire plausibility, because obviously it is the dire realities that cause the extinctions - not the relative utopias.

Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones. Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. Right now, TD 6 looms out there. It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels. But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate. This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah. In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no? But it is by definition a meso model so -

It is long been scienced and introduced via attribution studies/papers, just how sensitive the Arctic is. The question of ice morphology would certainly play into that mystique, especially when the domain is "teetering" with thermal resonance that is near melt point(s) - and there may be some variation there, too, based upon saline content. Up a degree, ice melts; down a degree; it-honeycombs/softens, but may remain in tact. I was just mentioning to Will that the NAM is rising. Those areas recently released could refreeze, but either way, the ablation rates would slow in a system that is on the thermal fence so to speak, pretty markedly over a rather narrow range of temperature input.

That's what I've been hitting at yup. We'll see. The AO mode is shifting more positive in the means. Not sure what the general level of knowledge is re that particular atmospheric index but, when it is positive, we tend to warm at mid latitudes around the 45th parallel of the Hemi, while the polar vortex strengthens. That is concomitant with height falls and cold genesis within the mean PV - so essentially diametrical to our correlations. +AO cold up there, warm down here; -AO vice versa... What I am getting at is that maybe we see a slowing coming into the end here and that bumps 2019 out of contention for top apocalypse indicator, to something more like we be dire-f'ed

This doesn't prove anything other than one's lack of any real understanding in the physical processes guiding the greater environmental system... particularly that Time is a variable in it, or any causality-link to pernicious influence in a system... And, also, this stuff above is just horribly blanket applicated and is incorrect.. No one said in the 1980s the Acid Rain was going to result in that. No one said in 1990 that the Ozone Layer meant that... Both those were warnings...both those were dealt with both at home and abroad, in global efforts to curtail their negative impacts and guess what? It worked.. Acid rain reduced by scrubbers at stack release points...and thought obviously still exists...the technology is there to prevent it/mitigate ..because of those sciences of those eras. This is complete garbage. Non-reality-based shit. Period. As far as everything else on this list... 2000 to present ... it's just too stupid to comment on.

What Invest are y'all talking about ?

NO... I don't think we do haha But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season... When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about? The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938. There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm... Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics - Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway... The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck" ... and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay... I can dig it

SandySurvivor - If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period.... That said, at this time this is no threat to you. NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous. Nothing. This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency. Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint: THERE ARE NONE. It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included... that tells us there are no signs. Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise... by all means, enlighten us. Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME. Am I gettin' thru. Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this..

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ? .... sure... Problem is.... 'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? geometry. That's all If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...) the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs... By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.

I'm curious if the ensemble push for an elevating NAM might help in preventing a nadir quite as deep as 2012 ... We're still likely doing a bottom 3 ranking ( or so...) either way, but if the oscillation/mode relaxes toward neutral we could be on the verge of a slowing in the melt rates. + annular modes are actually inversely temperature distributive to middle latitudes and tends to favor land-based cryo ... in addition to cooling the polar vortex domain space. But not sure about sea ice though. Particularly this early in the in the boreal autumn ...and also considering the melt- inertia, which is also a factor.

yeah...it's interesting to see 2019 be within decimals of those floor values when there's an average bottom date of Sept -16 among those other years, and we're only on August 21

This is gonna be close ...

There are solutions to the entire power-grid aspect of this that are completely obscured(ing) from masses. Partially by design ... partially by habit. There are "exotic" technologies in the private sector that no on even knows about ...buried, quietly... be it Trumpian morality and ethics, ...or just the hand-me-down dogmas of generational traditionalism within people's ways of life - basically ...culturally suppressed. But because of the suppression ... oblivion, and what probably should be more obvious has to now be 'out of the box thinking.' It's not that it is out of the box, ...it's just that we've been conditioned by a combination of convenience and apathy not to consider. It is possible to sequester electrical charge straight out of the ambient atmosphere. Yup... free energy. But therein is the problem ... that poke in the craw of the sociopath, "free" ... "hmmm... shit. That means I don't get to con Humanity into dependency on Oil and other pernicious means of energy extraction ... wantonly ignoring morality along the way in reaching the goals of my quarterly reports ...! God damn it..." It kind of reminds me of the "Mosquito Coast" Think about it - even you are not a physicist ...you should be able to intuit the plausibility. There can be a way to draw power directly from any gaseous volume that contains energy (thermal resonance) greater than absolute zero - ... we're living on a planet where there is just such a volume, and guess what... it's got so much thermal energy in the free static air that any quantization would be so large a number, it would escape all effective meaning... And, these devices have been invented... It's called the thermoelectric effect ...basically, it's theoretically known spanning multiple generations... where it is possible to convert temperature differences, directly to electric voltage ... ( and vice versa...which could be harnessed in home heating and cooling without too much imagination ... etct) And it's all done through the physics of thermocoupling ... ...etc..etc.. But nope - Humans can't seem to evolve away from that pesky evolutionary advantage that no one would ever concede was necessary along the way: GREED... Hoarding and me-firstitude favors the individual. See...the way that works ( crude model): when the collective cooperation spirit of the community is about to cause the extinction of the village that hoarder survives his/her genes into the next generation - greed lives... It is why greed is actually a core instinct along with all others, in the genetic make-up of humans. It's sneaky, stealthy ...furtive presence in all dealings has piggybacked along with cooperation instinct along the evolutionary tract. Any moral ( morals can be bad or good by the way...) we can learn to avoid them? ...suppress is more like it... But, greed is no longer necessary in times of surplus and opulence ...and at present state of evolution, human ingenuity has long outfoxed the basic ecological model of survival by provisions therein. We produce our own provisions...is surplus. Perhaps if the asteroid does strike one day, or the Carrington Event shuts this thing done and there's an immediate jolt back to primal living ...greed will have it's stealthy place again... But until that happens... it's an instinct that hasn't turned off...but is causing all this... And is hugely exposed. Because it's morality is now competing with the morality and ethics of that which would provided a greener vision for the world. That's really all it is... that simple. Humans can't do anything truly altruistic. Nope. They have to invent a illusory system of value, Economics... ( which sorry for the soulless among us who are so bought in they're oblivious to reality... money has no intrinsic value outside the parlance and tragic comedy of Human affairs - we all merely agree on it's value... ) and then hold individual's ability to survive for ransom by making profit off that dependency

Within a Millennium seems a bit conserved to me.... Particularly when the GW is accelerating ... I didn't look very closely at their math but on the surface ( heh...pun) they didn't appear to have logr effects due to accelerating variable values... This whole thing with synergy is just not being taken very seriously -probably more like less understood. Unrelated ... but Sanjay Gupta was recently extolling human beings are simply not wired to process the specter of climate change - I further that sentiment by re-iterating some of my recent opine material, related to " ..humans have never responded very well to threats that do not readily appeal via one of the corporeal senses.." - it's commentary routed into the same concepts... and GW/climate change is an insidiously quite stalker. This is particularly true, when the one force that is causing the ballast of the pernicious changes ( Human activity ) is uniquely adaptable ... thus making it easier to deny for readily evading its harmful effects via that same adaptation. I further again that synergistic effects ... acceleration, and gestaltian under-estimates can under calculate ablation ...the atmosphere accelerates further... that complicates their application - I'll have to read the article again... ( I'm on about 7 of these today - my god..) But the ocean levels rise at a greater rate than these linear application of rudimentary mathematics will imply given acceleration.

Yeah that product I posted is the MASIE ... or the augmented IMS ... hints at that in the lower right text block ...which for some reason had previous escaped my attention. Heh... anyway I found a different site that describes similarly when searching this shit - anyway, I think these curves have to converge at some point - thing is... we're so close to shared curve space that's probably splitting hairs at the moment... 2012 vs 2019 I mean

Okay ... .this is just quick and dirty Web goop but... IMS is being used by the National Snow and Ice Date Center ... IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis at 1 km, 4 km, and 24 km Resolutions, Version 1. This data set provides maps of snow cover and sea ice for the Northern Hemisphere from February 1997 to the present from the National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). That's what's confusing ... if we say "...2nd lower behind NSIDC" ( which I'm not trying to refute...) but this statement above says they are using the same IMS tech, and said tech is showing 2019 has been lower than 2012 the whole way... that's a discrepancy.

I have a question - which may be fairly 'duh' but since I haven't been by those other sources ... Are those more comprehensive than "sea ice only" ? That IMS product is sea ice only ... And also, just fyi ... the IMS product comes from NSIDC - we may be able to put the pieces together here on why the disparity. It's gotta just be some dumb product thing I'm not seeing shit

I don't doubt there is/was relevant science and/or postulate content that predates the shenanigans that go in here I mean ..it's a public forum ... to which a social media outlet certainly qualifies, and folks rarely cite their sources, anyway. That said ... this came up back in Eastern days... from which this site really owes it's heredity of users ... (initially anyway ...that's probably obscured by now), but unfortunately, content didn't follow. Also, I frankly wouldn't put it past anyone in the general ambit of research ... regardless of affiliation and rank, elsewhere ...to poach ideas from dialectical free-for-all sources ( like the Web when it's not degrading into vitriol ) and then run with it using the wherewithal they have at their disposal. Much of that wouldn't even be malfeasance ... not the point. If I'm in a conversation with someone and it triggers a thought progression...and I science it and make discoveries... It's just where the 'idea zygote' took place. But like I said...like mindful quorums and consortia and who-knows-what intelligentsia ... they will tend to converge on similar ideas at the same time - this has taken place throughout human history. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it as an afterthought .. .

Firstly ... I like the opening thought here ... There are indeed vying forces ...some more dominant than others, in every multiplex system of Nature - to which the governing atmosphere/climate forces certainly fall into this give and take. Secondly ... you know it's funny - this business about "fossil" fuels... It took this planet some 100's of millions of years to sequester carbon out of the global biota ...and inter it all into these VOC chemistries ... then, Humanity comes along. With its ingenuity ( which has clearly out-paced any pragmatic checks and balances in the evolutionary sense of it...) we've managed ( ..if left to our own devices ) to liberate all of it back to environment in unbounded form in just 1,000 years. 100s of millions 1,000 The idea that there is anyone at all who would have the audacity to even try and ask anyone to negate ramification - ...that's incredible. I suppose it is possible ( tho proven not the case on Earth...) to find a system somewhere in Nature where you can completely forcibly infuse change without actually witnessing change ...

Fwiw - as of two days ago ( 18th ) from IMS: https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/