Typhoon Tip

good ole fashioned under-estimated deepening event... Like the days of lore ..Reminds me of the 1990 through 2005 era where if a TC was bound to 'cane status, it seemed mandatory that NHC estimate it's max a solid category below reality -

Euro brings chilly rain/marginal to the lower Greens and Whites D6 too -

155.4 mph ... nope, not a Cat 5 -

May be a situation where if this had another 20 miles of sea surface to cross the wind merely hasn't responded to the pressure nadir - up to this point this system's been pretty tightly in sync with typical pressure to wind relationship so 919 ....mm one can make a case. We'll probably get some post-mortem clarity (maybe) based upon building science -

yeah Looks to me as though this is pullin an Andrew - peaking "AS" it is crossing on shore... about the worst plausible scenario relative to all hells that can take place outside an asteroid impact -

Models are trying to move the needle in the dailies more than spot freezes for next week, too. I don't wanna admit it, but - we'll go ahead and assume that's overdone. heh Thing is, since ... I dunno, 2002 sometime, lot of Octobers, I might have to imagine 1/3 of them, have either packing pelleted a couple of instability CAA afternoons ...if not cat pawed a slushy inch or two at the tail end of wood-smoke cold rains event. Because of that clear and coherent uptick in what by life experience simply was "just too earlly..." I dunno. ...Once or twice was a lot more than I ever remember that taking place in the prior 30 years of my time on this planet; now I have almost come to expect it. Not sure how it stacks up against other people's experience, but for me... now having seen something like 7 or 8 Octobers with measurable white since the early 2000s, that "might" be pushing the mere noise argument's credibility for me. Yeah yeah... we could certainly settle back into the previous dynamic where it was more like once every 20 years or whatever it was. But this isn't just a instrumental sensitivity and/or measuring standard difference in play. Before 2002, I rarely even heard of snow in Octobers... There was the 1987 thing out in the Capital District, but - to me ...that's the 1::20 rearin its head. The last three cycles of the operational GFS for next week carry one of those open wave deals with attendant low ...right over us, with cold profiles easily white cappin' matters up N... Does it really seem so hard to get it done nowadays - gee

it's a good point though .. storm surge expectation -

It's also notably left of near-term track guidance ... 20 miles inside of 3 hours is significant - but... perhaps a 'wobble'

Ah ahahaha oy vay

Ray and I were discussing this the other night... Personally, over the decades of experience I've had, the statistic bearing out a tendency for weakening as these GOM storms approach the coast, I mainatain, appeals to be more of a geo-morphological coincidence based upon intensity timing/schemes with the geography of that region more so than anything else. In simple terms, it's "where" they bomb that is paramount - Storms tend to move over the so -called "loop current" but... just the shape of the GOM is such that a storm's get free and clear of disruptive influence in that triangulum where Camille, and Micheal, Opal... Katrina all passed through, and at that time they enter the most favorable total kinematic support of deepening... That's "in the means" ... That just means that odds are, they have already achieved their greatest intensity the day before they approach the coast. Purely a numbers game... But it doesn't inherently limit a storms ability to go berserk closer to land-fall either.

Heh, it's just an opinion -... to me, there is DEFINITELY a need to state "things" like that, because it keeps matters in some semblance of realism with checks and balances... What we go through with in every powerful storm is the same people that really shine on with a lust for seeing dystopian carnage unfold, while trying to hide behind dismissive flimsy palm-tipping mantra that "Welp, people love extreme weather" Mm, not good enough for me. The denial/truth therein is that wanting on big events in a posting tenor that appeals as 'gaiety' (for lack of better word) with each surpassed increment of rifle velocity being achieved ... should not be celebrated. Taking joy there? The flimsy excuse side-steps the elephant of the thing. Sociopath is too strong of a word, but there definitely is some sort of pseudo-sociopathic abandon that lusts for this sort of thing while sitting afar and watching images on technology's great cinema. We aren't sitting in a movie theater here.

That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - Interesting

The eye on IR loop over at UWisc CIMS reminds me of that scene in War ofThe Worlds when that tripod first came up from the ground

Snow in October .. meh. I suggest folks get a pattern sustained that makes it "october" first - puttin the cart before the horse The models overdo these early season cool snaps when their late middle range and so forth at this time of year... Usually in shorter terms they normalize some, end up more like a standard deviation BNer

And in fact, the very ageostrophic phenomenon that is primary/required for feeding in cold in the interior contributes directly to meso-low formation down over you guys ... about right on top of SE zones or thereabouts. That only causes those areas to erode even more...

I even wonder if that's based upon a real reanalysis science ... ...if so, how - Seems it'd have to built/assessed almost entirely upon anecdotal accounts. It wouldn't shock me if there was no real tropical system here over SNE, and say that track is just not right. In Dec 2005 we had something similar to what you described entirely from an unusually potent mid level jet structure and attending bombogen running along SE RI ... It was exceptionally well handled by the ETA in its twilight years - since retired to this NAM: "Not A Model" That one brought wind speeds of ... 110 mph in gust to the Cape and Islands from a singer... I don't doubt that a TC was in the vicinity? But "vicinity" in Met terms can be Va Capes to SE of CC... where as if an early season Dec 2005 type compact nuke was bombing and perhaps thefting diabatic streamer ...or perhaps outright absorbing, that's not the same as "Snow hurricane" per se ...But, given to the shimmering clear state of the art recorded satellite imagery, radar, as well as infrastructure for ground truth data networking that was miraculously in place 180 years before its time, I'm sure they nailed all the culprit players on that thing...

No... PNA... I discussed that earlier... The EPO is collapsing and the PNA is rising, heralding in a ridge expression at mid latitudes over western N/A ... which subsequently ensues trough in the east. -EPO vs +EPO can more directly effect the wave spacing across N/A (more so than transitive/indirectly...), but that usually happens in the mid winter when the wave lengths are much longer.

Technically our region ...meaning y'all up there and throughout SNE, are not even in the warm sector yet as of this hour. You can see it sort of "washing out" ...but, the boundary is curvi-linear from midriff Jersey through middle NYS...E-N of that boundary is wave form inversion clouds stationary...albeit warm anyway - Interesting if we do pop 80 tomorrow

Looks like a low-amplitude 'relay event' .. or perhaps an autumn version of one. It's when the EPO is negative and the block then retrogrades and/or collapses S ..melding into the PNA, which lag rises with ridging more in the middle latitudes over western N/A.. Meanwhile, the EPO is neutralized. So the EPO loads cold into the Beaufort sea/NW territories, first... then with the subsequent PNA rising/ridging grabs, the flow over western Canada tips NW and that relays cold thickness into to the Canadian shield and onwards. **** Scott mentions 'first flakes' around New England. No argument... I see 540 thickness and long isobars from western JB ...yeah, okay. But when I was child in western lower Michigan and all the way up through my college years living out here in SNE... Snow in October was excruciatingly rate... It seems since 2002 or so...it's like every year or every other year, you either get a glop synoptic job or a packing pellets CAA instability day. Interesting...

Historical damage assessment and building standards/science can hone a close approximation...if they did not measure it directly. What I'm curious about is how to get a full bird 'cane over to cold core that quickly - I don't think that specific aspect has been papered/scienced, that I'm aware that is... I've never read about "speed" in getting that done. Fascinating - Sandy did some indirect multi-seasonal stuff...

Agreed... and my only horse in that race is that I'd rather folks don't figure for less intensity, automatically, like we do everywhere else in our entitled attitudes about reality in western cultures (haha).. .but doing so, merely because more seem to behave that way than don't - I guess... It's a Darwin award to lower one's guard but we know that. I tell you... I recall the day after Charlie ... I think it was Charlie... did that slight right jog on the west side of Florida as it was deepening into Cat 4 territory, and these idiots at a club diner were ticked off at the weather service because the storm didn't hit all of 20 or 30 miles further up the coast - ... it was mind boggling, the temerity of these aholes. I mean seriously ..it was like, "the weather never get's it right" in a frothy anger. So the roof peels off while they were elbows deep in egg yokes and toast and I'm like ....what the F were you doing out at a diner on that day at all - ... man.

Yeah I don't believe so... the trough that is presently approaching (~) west Texas, never really interacts ...most of it's speed momentum/height falls bipasses ...leaving the flow flat with no height falls interacting with this thing.. What it is doing is contacting and moving along with the westerlies, ...once it has cleared moving inland and continues to do so over land... Ironically, the Euro does flirt with transition as it races then between CC and Bermuda somewhere. "Saving face" is beside the point for me... I happen to have read papers about hurricanes depending near the loop in the Gulf and it's not a huge theoretical leap to see how normal timing of intensity profiles within a day of an RI simply parlays favorably to TCs not happening to be at their greatest intensity the next day as they approach land. Charlie never weakend ...course it was on the Gulf/interior side of Florida...still, that one passed near the loop and bombed as it was coming ashore because it was geographically closer to that region where pulsed stronger.

Mm... it's more an artifact of intensification timing... When TC's pass over the heat content, provided the deeper layer mechanics support strengthening, they'll tend to do so rapidly (whether that means official "RI" or not, notwithstanding...). Extra tropical transition is not that common to those latitudes and the phase diagrams for land falling storms don't really reflect that taking place. Then, nearing the coast they are entering replacement issues and so forth - in other words, it's more a geophysical coincidence based on that region's physicality.

Funny ...that reminds me of current surface temps during a late March back-door butt bang pattern -

Why ...? completely random imagination here -