Typhoon Tip

Yeah ... battery powered airlines ... Come fly united! that'll be cool... it would be really neat if there was a discovery of some way in which to manipulate space and time and energy like they do in Star wars or Star trek .. it's like glowing rails and the object lifts off and cruises with no exhaust. 2 growing to 4% according VOX data and so forth ... so, it's like remove all other forms of A VOX contributions - heh. If we can heat all homes and drive all cars and ship all boats without puffin' out industrial farts ... maybe we can then have our lawn mowers and flights without the moral and actual physical price tag of ending our existence on this planet... because I absolutely loath raking lawns!

It's the new GW standard ... model's admit to winter next summer

So some wavering in the tele- mass fields. After a three days of a more coherent signal ...we still see the Pacific paradigm shift as more possible than less, however, it is harder to determine if these recent distractions are legit or something more in typical of transition season sending red herrings - I tend to thing less the latter though. This is a time of the year when these determination methods are subjected to increased variance.. The MJO aspect is still interestingly stagnating in a moderate phase strength in the phase 8-1-2 region in both the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means. With the PNA at both the CDC and CPC showing a neutralization and plausible rise into positive SD after the 15th of the month ( or so .. ) that is a positively augmented signal typically enhanced when there are modeled/expectation of typhoon fluxing in the west Pacific. I'm still not certain which is the egg and chicken in that relationship: does the MJO lead the typhoon genesis and track ... or is there something super scope that supports both and they happen to orient at the same time... Perhaps that matters less compared to the significance of statistical correlation and now that we are getting deeper into autumn that correlation is awakening. Higibis should enter the westerlies E-NE of Japan .. All this spells an active pattern spreading down stream across the remainder of the N-NE Pacific and probably into N/A toward week two.

It's just over deepening that at mid/u/a levels from seemingly less momentum input/geo-physical sourcing, so it makes it less than clear why that's so gale-ed out

hey... it was just a suggestion lol Nah, I still would suggest that is the case. There are peculiarities about that whole way in which that sets up, so given that it is beyond D6 and is strange ... typically that doesn't end well for deterministic efforts in the field of operational Meteorology.

I'm actually 50/50 on a snow chance between the 20th and perhaps Novie 10th .. ( obviousy the ending dates are hugely skewed..) Comparing signals? I'd say this is about half that which preceded the October snow event in 2012, when it was some two to three weeks out in the tele's back in those faithful run-up days to week(s) ahead. I was going to pull a trigger on a thread specific to that interval, yesterday, but having waited for the teleconnector output, I decided to hold off. Half a signal in October can make a huge bustable difference! The problem is the handling the EPO, and to some lesser degree the NAO domain space... In 2012, the Pacific had more coherently modeled -WPO --> -EPO relay ( northern arc of the Basin) during a modeled 7-8-1 robust MJO WAVE underneath, and so the solid AB phase signaled was well correlated... ( that means the meridional flow type) This time WPO-EPO has been off and on. What both eras did/do have is a very clear and coherent and pretty much amazing phase reversal in the PNA; recovering some 3 or 4 SD in every member is a whopper modality. That usually comes with a paradigm shift to put it nicely. I'm also impressed with the MJO crumbling up in the Phase 8-1-2 in both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble means. The PNA/MJO is thus a very potent constructive wave interference pattern; the 'synergistic' result could send the operational runs into more of a western ridge, eastern trough couplet than even the models show at this time, ..when that two-or-so week span gets going. I just don't know if the EPO will cooperate... if it does, this has the same tele prominence as 2012 did in my mind - and it could still happen It's also possible the PNA/MJO synergy ends up driving a -EPO given time/correction forthcoming... The PNA tends to relay back and forth between that index and back.. +PNA --> -EPO/neutral PNA --> -PNA tends to be the cycle there... but the ending -PNA can be transitory prior to reload - in big years or cyclic +PNA's that takes place.

yeah... notwithstanding, there's alternative technologies, both plausible and coming out, such that rip and roar machinery isn't really the only option anymore. And, it can't be so there we go. As far as 'precious metals' in batteries; I'm less impressed with that as any form of limitation. Those are easier to reclamation than plastic. Besides, those options are vastly more appealing in the nearer term than the definite consequence of profligate combustion of fossil fuels. I guess one of the aspects I was dancing around there is that this whole AGW stuff ...if true ( and to some percentage I wouldn't care to debate in here, most likely is...) the total spectrum of contributory sources is more vast than we may think. It's childish not to consider the entire frame-work of modern Industrialism in that. Par for the course ... The industrial revolution and pretty much all of society's constructs are scaffolded by oil and fossil fuels. You didn't ask but ... I've often thought it funny that it took the planet say ... 100,000,000 to 500,000,5000 years to sequester all the presently accessible fossil fuel stows, both solid and liquid... Humanity, with conceit and ingenuity ... comes along and threatens to liberate all that reactive chemistry back to the reactive system in as little as 200 or 300 years: No problem. what ? We expect to do so without consequence? I mean... it seems so intuitively preposterous that the debate can't actually happen before the pitchers of water are set upon on the folding tables and the hall even starts to fill. There is no debate. Intuition tells us alone that we own the vast majority % of the cause of jolt environmental changes that are empirically being measured... But, maybe the intuitive model is wrong - who knows. You're right...that 'free-lunch' thing? I don't actually blame humanity for the "crisis" - should it ultimately deemed so. Evolution started this - we did our best as species to adapt and survive, and as the peregrinations of mutation and Darwinism would have it, we ended up with brains as our beast - that is how we've won - so far - this fight. Otherwise, folks may not realize this but a human being is, pound vs pound, the weakest organism on the planet. That's the trade off - unfortunately, the irony of the weakest beings owning the greater power comes greater responsibility. One thing I wanna add in this hugely inappropriate discussion for a winter outlook thread ( haha, sorry guys ), it bothers me when mankind refers to inventions of mankind, as unnatural. I got a mathematical wake up call for us all: what ever is inside the foreseeable cosmic boundaries ( i.e., the Universe itself) IS f'ing natural, and that includes whatever, nature invents. Plastic - totally natural Global warming by man kind - totally natural why? Because the men and women that made it happen are totally natural. Take humancentric egoism out of the equation, nature invented plastic and a warming planet. When one really sets down and thinks long and hard what that means... they may start to melt away the morality of it all, as just as constructed as the society that is doing the "damage" - nature does not care ... this planet... it doesn't care. But that's not what is paramount. We care... we care because, if we want to have a planet, a planet that requires a complex self-sustaining and healthy ecosystem at all scales and dimension within which we indirectly, but all importantly, need for our own survival we need to use what evolution provided humanity with: moral circuitry. It make us ..instinctually compelled to conserve that which promotes our own survival... And if self-preservation is an instinct we should ( and actually do... ) all possess, than not exacerbating the egregious situation of climate change is a recourse we need to set upon. I think all this bear relevancy because the problem with the denying this and that counter-culture is a sociological one, and that starts with how those with wisdom present to those that have less. A good part of which is in not being accusatory for what we needed to do to survive - we just need to strive to do it a different way. That intuitively seems like a better tact for reaching people. As far as captains of Industry that don't care to consider beyond their own life span, so they may as well reap now ...thankfully, that form of sociopathy is not more powerful than the masses, should they concede to the better form of the message and approbate accordingly.

mm...not sure what the consensus is ..or if the subject matter was even broached but to the straw man in the room, I suggest that coastal out there on the 00z GGEM/Euro is bullshit.

Interesting... Man, who sells snowblower's requiring internal combustion engines spewing contributory greenhouse gasses to the on-going AGW thing ... which concomitantly increases the odds of lesser and lesser snow fall, bets on more snow fall. The only reason that fails the obvious irony is that it'll take probably beyond his immediate generation/life before it is realized - but that's fascinating. If there were cross-generational moral culpability even capable in this species called Human Kind - which dey ain't - that philosophically becomes substantive. heh. Tongue-in-cheek, still true.. I mean, obviously.. the carbon footprint of a snowblower ..negligible. 20 or 30 million? mm.. It's funny this opportunity to soap-box presented its self. Because I just dropped my lawn-mower off at a repair shop yesterday, because the rip-chord had come out of it's housing and slipped under the cutting draft and got sucked in and ...well... eegh. Anyway, I was out there mulling in the lawn, culling the reminders of the season... when it dawned on me: why am I paying for a device that I really should not be using? One of the many thoughts that pass through the transom of one's mind. A single lawn-mower doesn't mean much ... but, 100,000,000 of them across N. America? ...let alone the world when it comes to either of these 'luxury' devices, may add a footprint that's only adding to the problem. I always look around me and these sort of things dawn on me. You know? We think of AGW as smoke-stacks ... and coal, and car industries and the power generation for the grid. It's probable if all these forms of industrialized societies were to be entirely green in some ... utopian future ( which ain't happenin' before a lot of people have to die first most likely... ( cynic, sue me! ) ), then the Earth might be able to absorb the contribution of mower, blowers, and front end loaders.

Agreed on the sentiment. Not sure it’ll be enough though. Utterly prism clear unabated light wind sun and 63 super adiabatic low levels tomorrow and not as chilly tomorrow night then two mild days. Not likely enough

Tonight is the first night that has that smell to it… Hemorrhaging gossamer warmth to alpha Centauri. Wouldn’t surprise me if places bust temperatures a degree or two colder

Page turned as scheduled Pan-continental thickness correction is complete. We’ll get warm days here and there but certainly not sustained. Even the south has had a thickness evacuation ... highly unlikely they’ll return to anything close to what they just went through 50/50 cold signal out there

Also ...I've read several attempted reanalysis type frame-works on that 1804 thing in the past ... To me, it leaps out as an extra-tropical bomb that infused/engulfed an unusually pithy latent heat source/extreme baroclinicity evolved quickly because of it, a bit beyond the standard Norwegian model low - Think 'rogue wave' like, when these more typically vying parametric sources seem to actually super-impose, super-constructively.. Super storm '93 is one.... Sandy is likely another example. As is 1804.. I don't really believe that a hurricane actually had concentric snow bands however -

OH ... it's possible.. sure. Not just because historical annuls actually have cases where > 50% likeness took place... But, truth be told, if it were physically impossible, the model would not have it ( That winking isn't meant for you ..just the royal setting... ) Anyway, my point is, the peregrinations of the runs way out in time are because of quasi-fractal effects, but at the end of the day ...the processing is still railed along by mathematical/geo-physical principles. If the runs were engaging in solutions that were mathematically impossible ..heh, that'd be one helluva of forecast model, huh - It's always a matter of when something is going to happen "like what" we see in one of these fantasy movies, and also.. considering that in order for something like that to happen, too many things have to take place to "cause the air-plane to crash," that is why they are always rarer than the norm. Duh. That's all code of very very low odds

it's been doing that for the last couple of weeks ever 2nd or 3rd run.. Honestly ..it seems like I see that them in extended range every year. It may be just a modeling artifact of letting these tool run infinitum out to the edge of nowhere and then expecting them to appropriately handle a full fuel tank ( tropics ) of energy 'nough to power the Global grid for 100 years or more

Every once in while in early to mid autumn a model run saunters out an extended range run that attempts to do this ... Usually it's the GGEM ... and to be fair... Sandy was often depicted this way some 12 days before it's legacy unfolded - I think that was the first time a dream-range vision of the GGEM dropping of a full bird cane into a cold core tropospheric well actually kinda sort happened.. . I give the GFS plenty of latitude given that this is far too far into the future than any model should be allowed to run ... but it certainly makes for interesting cinema from the 12z, huh -

Brian ... I recently had a 30 hour back spasm episode in my lower back... A coworker was out two days the week prior with a similar condition - short duration but borderline severe. She an I were considering if there something possibly pathogenic about it - just thought I'd mention.

You should preface with something close to this bold statement ... maybe adding this, 'which this is only pertinent to the cape and islands,' THEN, proceed with the rest of your paragraph ? Yeah...cuz otherwise, when one blurts out of left field, it tempts others to roll-eyes. Without providing context, they will invariably figure for gooberism -

Okay ...and seeing as 99.9% of civility accessible/accessing this social-media pass-time do not and most likely will not be present around those locations during snowstorms of major magnitudes and --> snow <-- ... no matter the intensity of the --> storm <-- ( lotion and kleenex) ... what do Banana High Pressures mean for them ? Oh ..I see - heh. Your post was in deference to that immediate conversation spin-off... I thought you were itching to posit some profoundly moving insight about the proximity of Cape and Islands whole world to typology of cold weather phenomenon -

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that..

Whatever sucks the tip of his narcissism and is needed regardless of morality to fulfill his celebrity lust -

Short answer(s) ? No, it doesn't necessarily mean either of those two things ( technically the terms 'Nor'easter' and 'coastal' should be interchangeable in this context ). Quick clarification: I wasn't really meaning to comment as to the whether or not the phenomenon can occur. Thinking back to those massive events ... Jan 1978 in the Lakes, and again in Feb back here in the east that year, as well as the Jan 5-8th 1995 "Megalopolis" slow moving blizzard: Those fateful events of lore slowed to a crawl while maxing out. When systems do that, they are perfect for exposing the "lucky" impact regions to proficient precipitation mechanics, as well as any other storm-related parametrics such as wind/chill... drifting ... effects on tides where that matters, and so on. Storms in fast flows max out, but they don't hammer a region inside the bears cage in the same protracted measure. The impact aspect in the now-vs-then discussion has sparked many -a debate. Somewhere, somehow, there is an objective comparison, and out of that a reality "precipitates" ( haha ) that a foot of snow falling in 1978 was more impacting than 1995, which was more impacting than 2005, which was more impacting than 2020, "driven" variously improving tech/infrastructural standards. At some point "NESIS" probably would need to be considered for revision - if that hasn't happened already - to factor in relative Impact potential/part of that acronym. Not sure we are there yet... but I am fortunate in that I am old enough to remember a time when 6" of snow was more of an obstacle to common societal business affairs/operations than it is today, first hand. In fact, anyone whose childhood was in the 1980s should be able to vouch for this change. But I'm digressing.. The fast flow is still going to produce cyclogensis ... and those regions are still going to be favored where they always have been. But, when they engineer in a region that is speed saturated, they'll tend to conserve the back-ground state and end up moving right along whether they are deep and moving slowly or moderately so, and zipping in and out.

I would argue that modeling tenor(s) is/are just increasing gradient - so far - amid a pattern that's maintained the same scaffold it has all summer since April. I have noticed ... or had it dawn on me mid way through, the models overall have had a subtle bias in both ridge and troughs in the D6 to especially 10 range - and that includes the Euro in it's own inimitable way ( despite it's correction schemes, which really are not apparently as effective in smoothing beyond D5 anyway). When either trough or ridge is distantly fetching into the edge of the runs they end up having normalizing into a dullard complexion in nearer terms. Troughs and ridges being over done in the extended is par for the course of most guidance, anyway. But this has been very almost machine like in regularity - and given to the shared ownership of that bias across all of them, it makes me wonder if it is something about the whole gestalt of the circulation that is causing the models to do that ... As an aside, it is possible that the peregrinations of technology, et al, have just wended these tools into a scenario of shared tendency.. Anyway, the current heat in the S/SE was supposed to at least time-share up our way and never really did. That's an example of this correction shit, among countless.. And, I suspect the packing pellets while hurrying a final lawn maintenance afternoon as wafts of wood smoke pass by Scott's nose look of the D10 Euro may also be too much when time comes. That all said, I do think that with the ENSO taking a back-sea, while there is some suggestion that the hemisphere is in a -AO longer term tendency .. I wonder if a 1995 similar autumn could take place. That was fascinating year. It still is my number 2 ranked winter behind 1978 ( but it's arguable...), just because these were uniquely delivering/satisfying winter pummeling over multi-regional spaces of the eastern continent. 2015 was too localized to SNE, but .. yes, if we choose to look at the world as flat-earth ending at the end of the street, the whole world had that greatest winter since the Pleistocene advance ... I realize this sparks vitriol. It's like you dare bring an objective analysis about Tom Brady's short comings to a sports-radio talk show that services Patriot fans .. and holy hell it's a good thing no one knows where you live. The reality is, the impact of that snow was mitigated some by the fact that 90% of it happened with DPs less than an inCREdibly lofty pwat, 10 f'um F degree temperature ... Jesus, one storm I blizzard walked was like shattered down-feathers to 20" that I was able to cut foot falls through for over a mile with almost no increased heart rate it was so gossamer .. Yet all there was was trophy hoisting. All that winter did, over a somewhat goegraphically reduced area, was inflate tallness of the numbers. In a way like that pro athlete that owns all records, but his/her teams never win any championships. But in deference and compassion to incensed sanctimony ... yes of course 120" in five weeks did some damage and lives on in infamy. The winter is a solid #3 Both the 1978 and 1995 were -AO dominant winters ... or in the least, timed pulses negative with Pacific ejections... I almost see this year as having a chance ( at least ) to see something similar. But again... the fast fast fast flow that is present [ and probably more likely to plague winters going forward ] adds an element of uncertainty.

It's just unfortunate for those of us that have no more room to grow or improve

Thank James... just adding to the bold' text: ...I did not go into the following, because of much of it is hypothetical just yet, but the ENSO may be losing the battle to global warming's disruption of the previous statistical packages. Example, a +1 SD El Nino may no longer be as effective in forcing as it were say ... 100 years ago, when the slightly cooler gestalt of whole atmosphere meant that a +1 SD warm ocean was a larger "differentiable" drive. Following from that logic, "an average winter" would be less forced to emerge/culpably assumed by a neutral Pacific. In fact, even a +1 or -1 SD warm(cool) ENSO may be less observably forcing. So I guess being picky ...I don't like the term "therefore" in your context Something like this may have taken place recently, actually... The El Nino last year failed to register (*per NCEP) in the atmosphere until deep into February, when the hemisphere was already nearing spring ... It seriously f-up seasonal forecasts, from multiple sources, both official and amateur. Going further back, the super NINO of several years ago also did not appear to 'trigger' as many known consequences around the globe - quite plausibly because though it's SD was derived from the longer termed data set, that longer term data is not as meaningful to an atmosphere that has changed into a new paradigm. Others have opined that the ENSO numbers are maintained/assessed based upon a sliding average .. That helps mitigate some of the 'changing system' uncertainty. However, that does not take into account acceleration in the system. The curve is not merely rising; it 'dove-tailing along that ascent, rising logarithmic, so sliding-means would fail that to some degree. These [ apparent ] weak physically manifested warm ENSO's in recent history ( as in atmospheric response) do seem to suggest that outright reliance on the ENSO is more risky than ever, particularly when departures are tepid. Experimental? absolutely ... I'm interested in the winter [ probably ] for entirely different reasons than the average pass-timer in here... I don't care so much about specific snow and/or storm and cold magnitudes ( beyond my native passion for witnessing weather drama, of course...) I'm more interested in testing both the speed of the flow as it relates to the observance of enhancing gradient, as well as whether the AO is in fact a more obvious contributor to forcing the hemisphere's hand this go around.