donsutherland1

Although the value of knowledge is realized more broadly than within the field in which the knowledge was developed once that knowledge is applied, that does not mean that such knowledge lacks intrinsic value. The potential value from understanding of the changing climate and its predominant cause would be unlocked from taking the appropriate steps to move toward net zero emissions. The value of the benefits would be substantial. In the fossil fuel-centered status quo, there are enormous adverse externalities (health effects, disasters from extreme events attributed to climate change, reduced productivity during heat events, agricultural losses from more frequent/expansive/intensive drought, fire damage, etc.). Those externalities are covered by society at large, rather than the major fossil fuel producers. That’s why they go unnoticed, but not unpaid. An IMF working paper estimated that the post-tax value of such externalities in the U.S. currently exceeds $640 billion per year (and $4.7 trillion per year globally). That’s about 3% of GDP. Realization of net zero emissions would eliminate that massive externality. That societal saving would represent a benefit of climate science understanding. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019089.ashx That confirmation bias/other cognitive biases, motivated reasoning and an unethical disinformation campaign waged by climate change denial sources (barriers over which climate scientists have little influence) impede a timely human response, does not diminish the value of climate science. It only impedes realization of that value.

The preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 91°. That would break the daily highest minimum temperature record of 88°, which was set in 1986 and tied in 2008. It would also be the earliest 91° minimum temperature on record. The existing record was set on June 22, 2017 when the minimum temperature was 91°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 79° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.3°; 15-Year: 80.1° Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.0° A warming trend will begin tomorrow ahead of a very warm weekend. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Phoenix will likely see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record today. Daily Records for June 17: Phoenix: 114°, 1896 and 2015 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) Tucson: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015 (Forecast: 110° to 114°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop as some of the heat baking the Southwest moves into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Albuquerque: 100° (tied record set in 1980) Blythe, CA: 113° Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1988) Death Valley, CA: 125° Denver: 100° (old record: 96°, 2020) Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940) Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 1940) Needles, CA: 118° (tied record set in 2000) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1974) Salt Lake City: 97° Tucson: 114° (old record: 109°, 1985 and 1988) ***5th consecutive record high temperature*** At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That ties June 24-28, 1990 for the second longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. At Denver, the temperature reached 100° for the second consecutive day. This is the earliest two consecutive-day period on record where the temperature reached or exceeded 100° at Denver. The prior record was set during June 22-23, 2012. The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 17-19 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017 Record high minimum temperatures: June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record tomorrow. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +17.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.172 today. On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.265 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

The thunderstorm passed north of Central Park and LGA.

At what location?

This is a great site: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

The preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 90°. That would surpass the daily record of 86°, which was set in 1988. It would also be the second earliest 90° minimum temperature on record. The earliest such reading occurred on June 14, 2018 when the minimum temperature was 90°. All 90° minimum temperatures prior to June 23 have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 6 such readings (including today's preliminary figure) occurred 2010 or later.

120° High Temperatures (June 15, 2021) Death Valley, CA: 124° Needles, CA: 121° Blythe, CA: 120° Palm Springs, CA: 120° ***Earliest 120° temperature on record***

It should be cooler today (upper 90s to near 100). The heat has peaked there.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8° Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7° A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 16: Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 113° to 117°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the modeled values*** Tucson: 109°, 1985 and 1988 (Forecast: 111° to 115°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Yesterday, Denver had a high temperature of 101°. Since 1872, Denver has had 16 days on which the temperature reached 100° or higher in June. Just 1 (6%) day occurred prior to 1980. In contrast, 11 (69%) have occurred 2000 or later, including 9 (56%), which have occurred 2010 or later.

Thanks. I was able to avoid the coronavirus and am now fully vaccinated. Welcome back. The more voices to defend science, the better. Stay well.

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°. Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record*** Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record*** Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000) Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993) Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974) Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009) Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974) Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record*** Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record*** The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +24.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today. On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

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