donsutherland1

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4. The SOI was +0.36 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.622. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 98%. There is also an implied 72% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 52% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The 5 Warmest April Mean Temperatures were as follows: 1. 57.9°, 2010 2. 56.9°, 1941 3. 56.2°, 1981 4. 56.1°, 1921, 2002 5. 55.9°, 1969　 On April 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.080 (RMM). The amplitude sharply higher than the April 21-adjusted figure of 1.313. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

Yesterday, Boston picked up 2.30" rain. That set a new daily precipitation record for April 22. The old record was 1.89", which was set in 1937. Yesterday's rainfall was also Boston's highly daily precipitation figure since July 17, 2018 when 2.68" rain was recorded.

Boston wound up being among the wettest spots. It will be interesting to see if an updated PNS is released later this morning.

As of 10 pm, Boston had picked up 2.02" rain. That sets a new daily precipitation record for April 22. The old record was 1.89", which was set in 1937. Today's rainfall is also Boston's highly daily precipitation figure since July 17, 2018 when 2.68" rain was recorded.

There was a sharp cut off. The difference was noticeable from White Plains to Mamaroneck, as well.

An offshore storm backed toward the coast bringing periods of rain to Long Island and the New York City area today. Daily rainfall amounts through 7 pm included: Bridgeport: 0.75"; Islip: 0.79"; New York City: 0.23"; Newark: 0.09"; Poughkeepsie: 0.03"; Westhampton: 1.12"; and, White Plains: 0.19". In the wake of the storm, sunshine will return tomorrow. Temperatures could soar well into the 70s across the region. A few locations could approach or even reach 80°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4. The SOI was -3.46 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.598. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 98%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 61% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area. The 5 Warmest April Mean Temperatures were as follows: 1. 57.9°, 2010 2. 56.9°, 1941 3. 56.2°, 1981 4. 56.1°, 1921, 2002 5. 55.9°, 1969 On April 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.312(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 20-adjusted figure of 1.010.

Persistence. 2002's high monthly mean temperature was largely the result of a historic April heat wave. Average High: 2002: 64.8; 2019: 63.5 (through 4/22/2019) Average Low: 2002: 47.4; 2019: 47.1 (through 4/22/2019) Mean: 2002: 56.1; 2019: 55.3 (through 4/22/2019) % Lows 50 or above: 2002: 30% days; 2019: 36% days (through 4/22/2019) % Highs 60 or above: 2002: 57% days; 2019: 77% days (through 4/22/2019)

This afternoon, the clouds broke and the sun returned. The temperature soared into the middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see even warmer temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -12.84 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.721. The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 97%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area. On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.009(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 19-adjusted figure of 0.878. The April 20 amplitude ended the 37-day stretch during which the amplitude was below 1.000. That was the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

This afternoon, the clouds broke for sunshine. The temperature soared to 66° in New York City. Some scenes from the New York Botanical Garden from this afternoon:

There’s a shower in Harrison, NY. The streets are wet.

Rainfall totals in the New York City area were generally well within the expected range of 0.50"-1.50". Amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.55"; Islip: 0.61"; New York City: 0.71"; Newark: 0.58"; Poughkeepsie: 0.49"; and, White Plains: 0.88". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -17.67 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.363. The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 96%. There is also an implied 76% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area. On April 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.875 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat below the April 18-adjusted figure of 0.928. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 37 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015. Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.

There was. 2019 has a real chance to have a higher mean temperature, especially if some of the near record and record heat being experienced in Kansas and Colorado can make it to the region.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden from late this morning and early this afternoon. The temperature was 60° and the rain came to an end. Skies remained overcast.

Although the warmth this April has not been as extreme as it was in 2002, it has been more persistent. There is a distinct possibility that the mean temperature for April 2019 could approach or reach that of April 2002.

Earlier today, the temperature soared to 80° in New York City. That was New York City's first 80° temperature since the mercury topped out at 80° on October 10, 2018. Last year, the City had its first 80° reading on April 13. Since 2000, only 2000 and 2014 saw no 80° temperatures in April. Even as the temperature reached the warmest levels so far this year, a storm was bringing severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to the Southeast. Overnight and tomorrow, that storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible, especially to the west of I-95. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -17.59 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.712. The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 91%. There is also an implied 67% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 54% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.927 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.752. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 36 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015. Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.