donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with a period of rain this morning. Clouds will linger during the afternoon and a shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see temperatures top out in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be much cooler with readings only in the lower and middle 50s.

Clouds broke for sunshine today and temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be more unsettled. A period of rain is likely tomorrow. There could also be some thunder. Tomorrow could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.076 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.983 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

It became partly sunny and quite warm this afternoon. The temperature topped out at 70° in New York City. Many more trees have exploded into full bloom in the New York Botanical Garden.

There may be some breaks in the clouds. I had a short period of sunshine.

Morning thoughts... At 7:48, a developing line of showers stretched from south of Breezy Point to just north of Bedford Hills. That line of showers will head eastward across Long Island and Connecticut over the next hour. Overall, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, where there should be somewhat more sunshine, will likely see temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 72° A period of rain is likely tonight and tomorrow.

Today was partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s in much of the region. Meanwhile, across northern New England, upstate New York, and Quebec, near record and record warm temperatures were recorded. Today's high temperatures included: Bangor: 71° (old record: 68°, 1945) Burlington: 76° (tied record set in 1945) Caribou: 69° Concord: 72° Montreal: 76° (old record: 74°, 1945) Plattsburgh, NY: 73° (old record: 67°, 1981 and 2002) Quebec City: 64° (old record: 53°, 1993) Saranac Lake, NY: 72° Sept-Îles, QC: 56° (old record: 54°, 1961) Sherbrooke, QC: 73° (old record: 63°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 72° (old record: 54°, 2002) A warm front will try to push across the region this weekend. However, it will likely stall within 50 miles of New York City and Newark. As a result, New York City and Newark will likely see mainly cloudy skies this weekend, along with a period of rain. Sunday could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.223 today. On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

There are some areas that are partly to mostly sunny, but the satellite imagery and guidance aren’t very encouraging especially for later this afternoon and onward.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy. There could be a shower. A period of rain is likely during Saturday night or Sunday.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is possible across the region during the weekend. Sunday could be quite mild. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.050 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.426 today. On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.454 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.352 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

It’s possible that the slowing thermohaline circulation might be having some impact.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be party to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is likely during the weekend.

At the onset, some parts of the area saw some rain. Banding also played a role in the snowfall accumulations.

Tomorrow will be another mainly fair and mild day. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s across the region. Some areas could again reach 70°. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Some rain is possible this weekend followed by near seasonable temperatures. Up north, excessive warmth will develop in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from tomorrow through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -7.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.236 today. On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.353 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.422 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

The power of the sea breeze: 5 pm: JFK: 59 degrees Central Park: 72 degrees

During the April 1982 blizzard, New York City (JFK: 8.0”; LGA” 8.2”; NYC: 9.6”) did not see any of its major stations quite reach 10”. Outside the City, Newark picked up 12.8” and Islip received 16.0”. During the May 1977 snowfall, New York City saw a trace of snow. Some parts of New York State picked up 10” or more of snow e.g., Tannersville received 13.0” of snow.