Jump to content

donsutherland1

Members
  • Content count

    11,966
  • Joined

  • Last visited

4 Followers

About donsutherland1

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KNYC
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    New York

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Daily and, in cases, monthly record heat stretched from the Middle East to Europe today. On account of several remarkable outbreaks of heat, the global temperature anomaly of +0.98°C for 2019 ranks 3rd highest on record for the January-May period. Nine of the ten and 17 of the 20 warmest January-May periods occurred 2000 and afterward. All occurred 1990 or later. Nevertheless, the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas have yet to experience excessive heat. However, that region could see its warmest readings so far this summer during the next several days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -3.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.569. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 24, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.696 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.708. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 57%. In addition, the probability that New York City will receive 50" or more precipitation is currently 72%.
  2. After some showers and perhaps thundershowers tonight into tomorrow, a taste of summer will be on tap for several days. Some locations in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could experience their warmest readings so far this summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -0.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.155. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.3°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.708 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.850. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. The latest run of the EPS weeklies has now retreated from its cool outlook for the first 10 days of July. It has moved closer to the idea that the period will wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 50%.
  3. The pattern is undergoing a transition that could lead to some of the young summer's warmest readings to date from the middle of this week onward across parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -18.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.434. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.638. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall. The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.
  4. Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall. The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.
  5. The sun's return this afternoon ushered in what will likely be a drier period that could last into the first week of July. In addition, more typical summerlike warmth will develop, especially next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -35.29 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI was -38.91 on February 20, 2019. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.291. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the magnitude of the previous round blocking. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.639 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.688. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such a warmer and drier outcome. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies has turned cooler. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 54%.
  6. Through 9 pm, Philadelphia's 2-day rainfall total was 4.63". That was the most rainfall since 5.18" fell during the September 6-8, 2018 period. A drier pattern appears likely to develop starting tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -19.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.757. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.688 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.047. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such an outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.
  7. donsutherland1

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    As of 8 am, Allentown had picked up another 0.03" rain. That brings the year-to-date total precipitation during 2019 to 30.00". 2019 now ranks as Allentown's 103rd wettest year on record, just ahead of 1980 when 29.82" precipitation was recorded. The 102nd wettest year on record is 1965 when 30.55" precipitation was measured.
  8. donsutherland1

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    4.42" at PHL overnight.
  9. Tomorrow, a cold front will press eastward, The potential exists for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Parts of the region will likely see heavier rain than had occurred in today's more limited rounds of showers and thundershowers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.864. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.043 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.506. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some the extended guidance is suggesting just such an outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 53%.
  10. donsutherland1

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded: 1952: 67.69" 2011: 71.72" 2018: 66.96" Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".
  11. At 8 pm, an area of rain was moving away from the greater New York City area. Additional areas of showers and thunderstorms stretched from northeast of Macon to Annapolis. Overnight, things should quiet down, but additional showers and thundershowers are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow. Through 8 pm, year-to-date precipitation at Allentown stood at 29.53", which surpassed the 28.76" that fell in 1941 (driest year on record). At Newark, year-to-date precipitation was 26.34", which surpassed the 26.09" that fell in 1965 (driest year on record). At New York City, year-to-date precipitation was 25.35". Select probabilities for annual precipitation amounts included: 45" or more: 86%; 50" or more: 65%; 55" or more: 39%. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -7.41 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.492. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.505 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.850. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 53%.
  12. donsutherland1

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

    Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.
  13. Today, readings remained in the 70s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, temperatures reached the 90s in such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC. A disturbance heading eastward will bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tonight through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -7.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 16, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.425. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.
  14. Excessive rainfall totals were recorded over the past 24 hours in the Ohio Valley. Locations near Cincinnati picked up more than 5" rain. Over the next several days, parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be in line for above to possibly much above normal rainfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -3.66 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.376. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.423 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.115. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.
  15. Yesterday saw a high temperature of 81° in New York City. Overall, the June 1-15 temperature averaged 68.6°, which was 0.7° below normal. The probability that June will finish somewhat warmer than normal has diminished, but remains plausible. A wetter than normal June remains well on course. Some photos from Pike County, Pennsylvania yesterday where rainfall totals have been much above normal recently. The photos were taken in the Dingmans Falls area (Dingmans Falls is the larger waterfall and Silver Thread Falls is the smaller one). Temperatures were in the upper 70s there and rain showers passed near the area during the evening.
×