donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Sunday. Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. There is potential for a moderate to significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +10.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.489 today. On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.593 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.591 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. There is growing potential for a significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was +8.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.628 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.598 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.449 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal).
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Canon EOS 70d
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow could start with additional smoke and haze. However, the New York City area has likely seen the worst of the smoke. The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. Early next week has potential for at least a moderate rainfall. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was +6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.540 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.441 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.228 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).
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Smoke from today:
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View in the Bronx:
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Smoke forecast for this evening:
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Another smoky sunrise.
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The 5 boroughs.
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Tomorrow evening will again see very thick smoke in the New York City area.
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow will be another smoky day in the region. The smoke could again be especially thick during the evening. The generally dry weather will continue, though early next week has some potential for at least a moderate rainfall. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was -1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.496 today.
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This evening, well before sunset, the thick smoke from Quebec's distant wildfires obscured the sun from view. The heavy musty smell of the acrid smoke hung through the air.
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Some small hail is falling in Rye Brook and Port Chester, NY as a thunderstorm passes through. Pea-sized hail in Rye Brook (photo from Angella): Near dime-sized hail from Port Chester, NY (photo from Silvio).
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Smoky sunrise. The sun was not visible until 29 minutes after sunrise.
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