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donsutherland1

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KNYC
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    New York

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  1. A cooler air mass now covers the region. Although it is not exceptionally cold, it is noticeably colder than the warmth that preceded it. A somewhat stronger shot of colder air will arrive Wednesday or Wednesday night. The low temperature could approach or reach freezing on Thursday morning or Friday morning in New York City. A potential storm will need to be monitored for the weekend. However, details remain uncertain. If the storm tracks close to the coast, it could bring a high-impact heavy windswept rain to the region. If it passes farther offshore, it could produce a gusty breeze and some showers. Coastal flooding at high tide is likely under either scenario, but the former scenario could be a damaging one. Currently, there is large disagreement among the guidance. Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +4.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.897 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).
  2. Final numbers for an exceptionally warm and very dry week:
  3. That includes interior sections e.g., NW NJ. I highly doubt that Philadelphia, Newark, or New York City will see much if any additional snowfall.
  4. Cooler air will push into the region. One shot will begin to arrive tonight. Another somewhat stronger shot will arrive Wednesday or Wednesday night. The low temperature could approach or reach freezing on Thursday morning or Friday morning in New York City. Milder air will begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -3.88 on March 16. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.234 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (5.2° above normal).
  5. Mild conditions will persist through tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn cooler with highs only in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and near 50° in Philadelphia. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, the cold will likely not be severe for the season. Moderation will likely occur later during the start of the following weekend with the temperature returning to the lower 50s. The closing days of March could turn warm. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +11.39 on March 15. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (5.0° above normal).
  6. It will be interesting to see how things hold up should the newer guidance verify. I suspect that the Magnolias that aren’t in bloom might not bloom until April if the weather stays cooler. The Camelias could lose their blossoms. Most of the crocuses are already done blooming.
  7. On account of the warmest first 15 days of March and the earliest 15-day period with a 50°F (10°C) or above mean temperature on record in New York City, the New York Botanical Garden has exploded into bloom. Some photos:
  8. The 15-day average reached 50 during March 7-21, 1990. March 1990 saw an early shot of very cold air with the low temperature reaching 13 on March 7th. Six of the first eight days had lows of 25 or below with three days having highs in the 30s, including 33 on March 6th.
  9. New York City saw the temperature average above 50F (10C) during March 1-15. The previous earliest 50F (10C) or above 15-day mean temperature occurred during March 3-17, 1977.
  10. There was more of an easterly component to the breeze at New Haven.
  11. ISP hit 73. EWR was 75 and LGA was 72.
  12. Under variably cloudy skies and the lack of an onshore breeze, coastal sections saw the mercury rise to daily records. Daily record highs included: Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1990) Islip: 73° (old record: 67°, 1990) New Haven: 65° (old record: 61°, 2022) New York City-JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1986) Westhampton: 69° (old record: 62°, 2014) The generally mild conditions will persist through the coming weekend. However, temperatures will be somewhat cooler than on Thursday or today. Afterward, it will turn cooler with highs only in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and near 50° in Philadelphia. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, the cold will likely not be severe for the season. Moderation will occur later in the week with the temperature returning to the lower 50s. The closing days of March could turn warm. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (4.7° above normal).
  13. Newark's records go back to January 1893.
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