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About donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1

    Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change

    Since the time I posted about the article, I have seen her piece. As I was traveling in China and just got back, I could not access it until my return to the United States. Based upon some of the criticism, Dr. Curry's included, my view is that the general ideas likely hold up, especially when it comes to "new media" coverage. In areas where the differences were small e.g., certain major media outlets, the conclusions may not hold up e.g., (the small advantage in coverage for contrarians may, in fact, be a modest advantage for the climate scientists). It would be interesting to see what the numbers look like if things are re-run to take into consideration some of the criticism e.g., one climate scientist who debated the contrarians at the Heartland Institute was grouped as a contrarian (the general category for all Heartland participants).
  2. donsutherland1

    Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change

    Washington Post feature on climate change: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/
  3. Today saw New York City reach 90°. As a result, August now has a positive monthly anomaly near 0.4°. Overall, August remains on course to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +7.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. On August 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.348. Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.
  4. donsutherland1

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    On August 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.635 million square kilometers (JAXA). Arctic sea ice extent remains on track of the second lowest figure on record. If Arctic sea ice extent declines at the 2010-18 mean rate, it would achieve a minimum figure of 3.695 million square kilometers. The median rate would produce a minimum extent of 3.672 square kilometers. Implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis: 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 84% 3.750 million square kilometers or below: 57% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 26% Highest 25th percentile: 3.905 million square kilometers Lowest 25th percentile: 3.486 million square kilometers In sum, Arctic sea ice extent will very likely fall below 4.0 million square kilometers for only the second time on record.
  5. donsutherland1

    NASA’s Climate Change Portal

    Very good piece, Tip. I’m really not focused on those who reject climate science and the overwhelming body of evidence that supports its fundamental conclusions. An anti-science rigidity and motivated reasoning preclude meaningful prospects of evidence-based reconsideration of their conclusions. There is a distinct difference between honest skepticism where one seeks additional evidence and then refines one’s thoughts based on that evidence and denialism where one seeks or contrives all rationalizations necessary to reject the conclusions drawn from the evidence. I do think this subforum has the potential to become a useful source of information on climate change and its realities. Others have been providing some good information. I have decided that I should also participate to a greater extent than I have.
  6. donsutherland1

    New Paper on West Antarctic Ice Melt

    This paper can be found at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0420-9.epdf
  7. donsutherland1

    NOAA: July 2019 was the Hottest Month on Record

    The GISS dataset also showed July 2019 as the warmest July on record (+0.93 degrees C anomaly).
  8. donsutherland1

    Trump is serious about buying Greenland

    My hypothesis is that the idea was floated with the hope that a purchase could be secured and an achievement registered just in time for Campaign 2020. Of course, my guess could be wrong, especially as I might lack some details on account of still being abroad.
  9. donsutherland1

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Today, Kodak had an 86-degree reading. That tied the all-time record high, which was set on June 28, 1953.
  10. donsutherland1

    Trump is serious about buying Greenland

    Yes, but Denmark would have to agree to any purchase. Fortunately, things won’t reach that stage. Greenland has now weighed in. It rejected Trump’s idea.
  11. The scientific understanding of AGW is based on far more than models (which are also widely used in scientific fields). Some uncertainties exist, but the fundamental understanding (the reality of ongoing warming, the role anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have played in raising the atmospheric concentration of such gases, and that rising concentration’s being the principal driver of recent warming) is essentially settled in the climate science field. No credible alternative has been advanced, much less withstood robust scientific scrutiny. Finally, the ongoing warming is indisputable. The NOAA observed in its July 2019 climate summary: Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. In a relatively stable climate regime, the statistical probability of 415 consecutive months with warm anomalies is vanishingly small. Such streaks are almost certainly only possible during climate change, in this case toward a warmer state.
  12. donsutherland1

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Back in late July, both the average statistical decline (2010-18 period) and sensitivity analysis indicated that it was likely that Arctic sea ice extent would fall below 4.000 million square kilometers at its minimum for only the second time on record. Since then, things have remained on track for such an outcome.
  13. donsutherland1

    Trump is serious about buying Greenland

    I doubt that Denmark will “sell” Greenland for any price. Greenland’s small population lives in freedom. U.S. military access does not require U.S. possession of Greenland. Such a purchase would serve few, if any, American interests, even if the President seeks to be immortalized as a 21st Century William Seward (who was instrumental in the nation’s purchase of Alaska). Exploitation of its raw minerals would be incompatible with trying to arrest the erosion of its ice sheet and preservation of its environment.
  14. From the NOAA: The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. The previous hottest month on record was July 2016. Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005 -- with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. Last month was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201907
  15. donsutherland1

    NASA’s Climate Change Portal

    This portal addresses many issues over which the public has received inaccurate or worse information from sources whose aim is to undercut public understanding, often to serve political, ideological, or other non-scientific ends. This portal can be found at: https://climate.nasa.gov/ The shortcut for facts about climate change is here: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/