donsutherland1

Flagstaff finished with an all-time daily snowfall record of 35.9" yesterday and daily record precipitation of 1.44". Flagstaff's two-day snowfall was 37.4". Phoenix also picked up a daily record precipitation amount of 1.01". There is a strong correlation between precipitation in the Southwest and a negative SOI.

I don't think it will reach or exceed the 54.0" record. It should surpass 40.0".

As of 5 pm MST, Flagstaff had picked up 31.6" snow today. That snowfall set a new daily snowfall record. The previous record was 31.0", which was set on December 30, 1915. So far, Flagstaff has picked up a storm total of 33.1" over two days. The two-day record is 51.0", which was established during December 30-31, 1915. The three-day record is 54.0", which was set during December 29-31, 1915.

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. There have been just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C since 1950. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall. During the most recent storm, all three cities had accumulations that fell short of 4.0". Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -27.27 today. That is the 11th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 11 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.486. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.005. Should the AO average +0.068 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.156 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 19-adjusted figure of 1.833. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February. Late February high amplitude MJO Phase 8 cases have not always led to a snowy March. March 1978 saw 6.8" snow fall in New York City. March 1988 saw no measurable snowfall in New York City. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths. Since 1950, 43% of New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during March 1-15 occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern and 27% occurred with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

I wouldn't be too surprised of Flagstaff reports a storm total and possibly daily total of 30" when the daily climate report is posted around 6 pm MST (8 pm EST). That would bring today's snowfall close to the all-time record. That record will likely be challenged, if not broken. Overall, the snow-liquid ratio has been about 25:1 during the event. Flagstaff's greatest daily snowfall (24" or above): 1. 31.0", December 30, 1915 2. 26.8", December 13, 1967 3. 26.0", March 1, 1970 4. 24.0", February 2, 1901

Some crocuses are already in bloom in the region.

FYI: 23.8" snow at Flagstaff. Snow continues to fall. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=fgz

There's still a window of opportunity. Overall, it has been a really disappointing winter.

Ice accretion from the recent storm: New Rochelle, New York

While February 2019 is nowhere near as warm as the record-warm February of last year in Central Park, it is poised to finish 2° or more above normal. Sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance provides the following implied probabilities: Warmer than normal: 92% 2° or more above normal: 58% 3° or more above normal: 34%

000 NOUS41 KOKX 210640 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-211840- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 140 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 7 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Weston 2.0 915 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter 1 NE Mill Plain 1.2 700 PM 2/20 Social Media Easton 1.0 856 PM 2/20 Public Bridgeport Airport 1.0 700 PM 2/20 COOP OBSERVER ...New Haven County... North Haven 0.7 750 PM 2/20 Social Media NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 1.5 700 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 1.4 950 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... West Orange 2.2 900 PM 2/20 Public Cedar Grove 2.1 915 PM 2/20 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 2.1 845 PM 2/20 Co-Op Observer ...Union County... Elizabeth 2.7 700 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter Newark Airport 2.5 700 PM 2/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER NEW YORK ...Kings County... 1 SSW Bergen Beach 1.0 1140 PM 2/20 NYC OEM CERT ...Nassau County... Wantagh 1.5 745 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter New Hyde Park 1.5 700 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter East Williston 1.3 730 PM 2/20 Public East Meadow 1.1 730 PM 2/20 NWS Employee ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 1.3 700 PM 2/20 Park Conservancy ...Queens County... NYC/JFK Airport 1.8 700 PM 2/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER Whitestone 1.7 730 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter NYC/LaGuardia Airpor 1.4 736 PM 2/20 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER Queens Village 1.3 700 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter Elmhurst 1.2 826 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter ...Rockland County... Chestnut Ridge 1.3 700 PM 2/20 Public Stony Point 1.1 830 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... North Babylon 1.8 915 PM 2/20 Public Islip Airport 1.4 1200 AM 2/21 FAA Observer Lake Ronkonkoma 1.3 824 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter Upton 1.0 900 PM 2/20 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Rye Brook 2.0 1030 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter ***********************STORM TOTAL ICE*********************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS ICE OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Danbury Airport 0.21 1253 AM 2/21 ASOS Bridgeport Airport 0.20 952 PM 2/20 ASOS ...New Haven County... Meriden Airport 0.15 1253 AM 2/21 ASOS New Haven Airport 0.11 1253 AM 2/21 ASOS ...New London County... Groton Airport 0.10 1256 AM 2/21 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... 1 E Washington Towns 0.10 1115 PM 2/20 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Caldwell Airport 0.27 1253 AM 2/21 ASOS NEW YORK ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 0.16 1251 AM 2/21 ASOS ...Orange County... Montgomery Airport 0.27 1254 AM 2/21 ASOS ...Rockland County... Chestnut Ridge 0.11 104 AM 2/21 Public ...Suffolk County... Westhampton Airport 0.09 953 PM 2/20 ASOS Shirley Airport 0.06 956 PM 2/20 ASOS Islip Airport T 956 PM 2/20 ASOS &&

That could well be the case. Not only does the guidance break down the pattern shortly afterward, the EPS weeklies go into a prolonged warm pattern beginning a few days before the 10th. I'm referencing the historical data to point out that the upcoming March very likely won't resemble last March (into April) where winter hung on for a prolonged period of time.

Some estimated freezing rain totals as of 10:40 pm based on the hourly observations: Bridgeport: 0.16" New York City: 0.11" White Plains: 0.18" Light freezing rain is continuing to fall at all three locations.

Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Today's storm proved consistent with historic experience. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist through February with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. Under such a scenario, the probability of a significant snowfall (6" or more) will be well below climatology for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The SOI was -38.91 today. That is the 10th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 10 consecutive days was April 12-23, 2016. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.112. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.035. Should the AO average +0.371 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. On February 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.839 (RMM). The amplitude rose from the February 18-adjusted figure of 1.550. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8 before moving slowly into Phase 1 during the closing week of February. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. Another storm could bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East this weekend. Afterward, the pattern could evolve toward a colder one. Unlike with February when neutral-warm to very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive to significant snows in the Middle Atlantic region, the frequency of such snowfalls during such ENSO conditions increases in March courtesy of shortening wave lengths. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall.

If NYC has had no double-digit snowfall through February, the odds become increasingly low afterward. The last 10" or greater snowfall in March was the 1993 superstorm when NYC picked up 10.6". There have been 8" or greater snowfalls in 2009 (8.3") and 2018 (8.4"). The window may close after the 15th and possibly even a little earlier if some of the extended guidance is correct.