donsutherland1

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  1. Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain unseasonably mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Afterward, cooler air will arrive. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.25 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.667. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 3, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.818. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 85% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.
  2. It's unfortunate if the choice is to leave things as it is. I ran a regression analysis for Jamaica Plain (JP) and Boston's January-February average temperature (1963-2017, excluding 2004-08 where no Jamaica Plain data is available). The resulting equation for Boston's January-February mean temperature was (0.923*JP)+4.129. The coefficient of determination was 0.936. The mean error during the 1963-2017 period was 0.6° (same as the median error). The minimum error was 0.0°. The maximum error was 1.9° in 1965. Based on where things currently stand, the 2020 error would be 2.1°. As noted above, should the choice be made to leave the ASOS where it is, that outcome will undermine the integrity of Boston's climate record. It would amount to a bad scientific decision. Finally, Jamaica Plain is on track for its 3rd warmest January-February period (34.0° through 2/23 vs. 34.9° for January-February 2002).
  3. As of 1 pm, the high temperature in Boston was 63°. That is the warmest temperature this February. In addition, January-February 2020 remains on track for a two-month average temperature of 37.6°. That would easily surpass the 36.5° recorded in 2002 for the warmest January-February on record.
  4. At 1 pm, the temperature was 61° in Central Park. That ties the 61° recorded on February 4 as the warmest reading this month.
  5. Morning thoughts... 1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning. 2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002. 4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.
  6. Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.
  7. At 10 am, the temperature was 45° in White Plains after a morning low of 24°. In nearby Rye, daffodils were now blooming in spots.
  8. Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.
  9. Yes. It does favor a wetter spring.
  10. I agree. Considering the exceptionally strong polar vortex and the reality that its impact on the pattern will likely linger even after it weakens, the kind of extreme cold that had periodically shown up on the GFS or the large-scale cold anomalies for March/spring on earlier CFSv2 runs are likely far-fetched. The GEFS and GFS both have pronounced cold biases, as well. Finally, it increasingly appears that snowfall prospects will be limited even after February if historic experience is representative. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.
  11. At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region. Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.
  12. I just looked at the January 17-31 anomalies for the Central and Western U.S. It seems that the climate maps are wrong. They don't reflect the "brutal Arctic air" that was supposed to engulf practically all of Canada (warm anomalies, too!) before plunging into the United States. At second glance, early blooms are reported in many parts of the U.S. The promised cold never materialized. And that outcome is consistent with what one is seeing on a global scale more and more often with a warming climate.
  13. Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +6.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.
  14. Today was another springlike day at the New York Botanical Garden. Under bright sunshine, the temperature reached 50°. Some tourists were overheard stating that they did not know New York City was so mild during the winter. Four photos: