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donsutherland1

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About donsutherland1

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    http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KNYC
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    New York

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  1. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    There was lots of frost on vehicles and the grass in southern Westchester County this morning.
  2. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Islip's monthly low temperature of 36° occurred on October 29. On October 27 (low temperature of 40°), Islip had a trace of snow. New York City's (Central Park) monthly low temperature of 38° occurred on October 26.
  3. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    This morning, the temperature fell to 42° in New York City’s Central Park. Some of the guidance had suggested that the temperature could fall into the upper 30s. The next shot at such a low would be Monday morning. The GFS MOS currently forecasts a low temperature of 40°. Outside the City, low temperatures fell into the 30s including (as of 8 am): Bridgeport: 39° Danbury: 37° Morristown: 39° Poughkeepsie: 37° White Plains: 39° Tonight, many of those locations will see even colder temperatures on account of radiational cooling. Places such as Danbury, Poughkeepsie, and Westhampton could see readings fall below 30°. New York City has seen an increase in October cases where the temperature has not fallen below 40°. This increase has been occurring after 1950, by which time the City had a mature urban footprint. During the period beginning in 2010, October cases with the lowest temperature of 40° or above have become as likely as those with a monthly minimum temperature below 40°. Return Times for October Cases with a Monthly Minimum Temperature of 40° or Above: Historic (1869-2017): 4.7 years 1869-1950: 5.9 years 1950-2017: 3.8 years 1980-2017: 3.5 years 2000-2017: 3.6 years 2010-2017: 2.0 years At the same time, cases with at least one October temperature of 32° or below have diminished in frequency. Since 1950, there have been 11 such cases. The last such occurrence was October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31°. Given the latest guidance, New York City will likely extend that stretch to 30 years when October concludes. The previous longest such stretch was 25 years and 7 days (from October 22, 1940 to October 29, 1965). Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that October will finish with an above normal monthly temperature despite the cooler second half of the month.
  4. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    That was October 2016. NYC, though, only got down to 38° and ISP to 36°. In October 2017, both locations had their lowest monthly readings as 42° and 40° respectively.
  5. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    There have been some heavier snow showers and squalls in parts of the Adirondacks this afternoon. Winter is approaching.
  6. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Through October 15, the temperature has averaged 66.2° in New York City’s Central Park. That makes 2018 the 11th warmest October 1-15 period on record. Records go back to 1869. The second half of October looks to be notably cooler than the first half. In fact, it could be among the coolest periods to close October from among the cases where the first 15 days had averaged 65° or above, with a mean temperature of 54° or below for the 10/16-31 period. Select data for 15 prior cases with an October 1-15 mean temperature of 65° or above: October 16-31: Mean temperature: 55.7° Lowest: 49.8°, 1922 Highest: 60.7°, 2007 October Monthly Average Temperature: Mean temperature: 61.1° Lowest: 58.1°: 1922 Highest: 64.1°, 2017 Sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance: Probability of a warmer than normal October: 66% Estimated range for the October 16-31 period: 49.0°-54.0° Estimated range for the October 2018 mean temperature: 56.8° - 59.7° The relatively cool conclusion to October after a very warm start has often coincided with a snowy winter. From among the 15 cases cited above, 6 had a mean temperature below 55° during the October 16-31 period. Four of those cases saw 30” or more snow during the following winter. Even as the GFS has persistently signaled the potential for a significant storm to close October, the forecast state of the teleconnections suggests that such a storm could take a course in which the heaviest precipitation misses the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. Areas on Long Island into New England could have a better chance of seeing 1” or more precipitation. Much can still change, as the period in question is approximately 9-12 days away. Finally, the latest EPS weekly guidance is colder than the CFSv2 for the first week in November. The former maintains a fairly deep trough in the means in the East.
  7. donsutherland1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Tyndall AFB:
  8. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    That’s very impressive, as they radiate much better than the City does.
  9. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    This morning's temperature of 47° was New York City's first reading below 50° this fall. 2018 became only the 8th year on record that New York City had not seen such a temperature through October 12. Despite what is likely to be a cooler than normal stretch, October remains on track to finish warmer than normal in NYC with a mean temperature just under 60°. Normal is 56.9°. In addition, with the 0.04" rain that has fallen so far, New York City's total precipitation for 2018 has reached 49.87". That ranks 2018 as the City's 33rd wettest year, just ahead of 1934 when 49.84" precipitation was recorded for the year.
  10. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Some areas around the City have received significantly more precipitation. It has been super wet in parts of the area.
  11. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    In the wake of the rainfall associated with a passing cold front and tropical storm Michael, New York City's 2018 precipitation has reached 49.83". That figure ties 2018 with 1936 as New York City's 34th wettest year on record. New York City still has more than two-and-a-half months to add to its figure. 2018 is already among the 20 wettest years in numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic, Southeastern, and southern New England regions. Select locations: Baltimore: 55.41" (8th wettest) Bridgeport: 45.52" (21st wettest) Harrisburg: 51.16" (8th wettest) Islip: 47.34" (19th wettest) Richmond: 52.18" (16th wettest) Washington, DC: 51.34" (13th wettest) Wilmington, NC: 87.36" (wettest year on record) The rankings relate to total annual precipitation figures, not year-to-date figures. Based on both the historical climate record (1869-2017) and recent period (1971-2017) when a wetter regime appears to have developed, it appears more likely than not that 2018 will be among New York City's 10 wettest years on record. Some probabilities: Historic Data: 50" or more: >99% 55" or more: 91% 60" or more: 41% 65" or more: 4% 10th wettest (58.42"): 60% 1971-2017 Data: 50" or more: >99% 55" or more: 92% 60" or more: 56% 65" or more: 13% 10th wettest (58.42"): 71% Historic extremes (October 13-December 31): Least precipitation: 3.14", 1998 Most precipitation: 20.37", 1983 Mean precipitation: 9.42" 1971-2017 mean precipitation: 10.78"
  12. donsutherland1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I agree. Danville must have gotten 6" or more rain before the data stopped being transmitted.
  13. donsutherland1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    If there were any doubts that Michael remains a tropical storm, the following was the 8:54 pm observation from Richmond: 11 20:54 N 41 G 56 1.50 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy BKN010 OVC015 68 66 93% NA NA 29.31 992.9 1.02
  14. donsutherland1

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    As of 5:20 pm, Richmond had picked up 0.41" rain. That brings 2018 precipitation to 49.00". As a result, 2018 now ranks just ahead of 1923 as Richmond's 31st wettest year on record. During 1923, Richmond had 48.96" precipitation. 7 pm update: Richmond's annual precipitation reached 50.00". 2018 is only the 24th year on record with 50.00" or more precipitation in Richmond.
  15. donsutherland1

    October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    A downpour near 5 pm brought New York City an additional 0.23" rain in just 10 minutes. The 2018 figure has now climbed to 48.97", which ranks 2018 as the City's 38th wettest year on record.
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