donsutherland1

A strong offshore storm will spread clouds into the region tonight into tomorrow. A period of steady rain and gusty winds is possible into tomorrow, especially on parts of Long Island. Showers could extend into and just west of the New York City Metro Area. The first five days of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures with the NAO below -1.000. Today's preliminary value was -1.541. That surpasses the previous daily record of -1.356, which was set in 1975. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. However, the limited pool of cold air available to be tapped this year could result in a shorter-duration period of cool readings than is typically associated with such patterns. Cooler air could return near April 10. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution, especially as the NAO could remain predominantly negative through mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -10.67 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.399. On April 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.181 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.578. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

After a cool start, the temperature rose into the middle 50s across much of the region today. A strong offshore storm will spread clouds into the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night. A period of steady rain and gusty winds is possible into Friday, especially on parts of Long Island. Parts of Alaska, British Columbia, and Alberta saw near record to record low temperatures earlier today. Hoonah AK had a low temperature of 13°, which smashed the daily record low figure of 22° from 1996. Juneau had a minimum temperature of 14°, which tied the record set in 1920 and tied in 1948. The first five days of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures as the NAO heads below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below--today's preliminary figure was -1.056--the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. However, the limited pool of cold air available to be tapped this year could result in a short-duration period of cool readings. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution. Some of the guidance suggests that cooler air could return near April 10. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +5.33 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.895. On March 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.583 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.010. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Morning thoughts... 1. The NAO has now dropped below -1.000 with a preliminary daily value of -1.056. 2. The temperature in New York City had risen to 47 degrees after a morning low of 38 degrees. March 1 was very likely New York City's last freeze. 3. Near record to record cold covered parts of Alaska, British Columbia, and Alberta this morning. At Hoonah, AK, the temperature had fallen to 13 degrees at 7 am local time. That smashed the old record low figure of 22 degrees, which was set in 1996.

For purposes of looking at the GFS (FV3) cold bias, the model blend I use for my sensitivity analysis has a departure of +1.5° for the April 1-17 period vs. the GFS's -2.0°. It will be interesting to see the actual number.

March 2020 will finish with a mean temperature of 48.0° in New York City. That made March 2020 New York City's 7th warmest March on record. In the South, New Orleans will likely finish with a mean temperature of 73.1°, easily making March 2020 the warmest March on record there. The old record was 70.7°, which was set in 2012. The first week of April will see somewhat below normal to near normal temperatures, as the NAO, now at a preliminary value of -0.297, heads below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -1.48 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.653. On March 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.012 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.002. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. April will likely be somewhat warmer to warmer than normal in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April.

Clouds broke late this afternoon. Readings topped out in the upper 40s.

Morning thoughts... Recently, the MJO moved through Phase 3 at a very high amplitude. There have been two distinct clusters of outcomes for April following such passages during the March 20-31 period. Despite the most recent CFSv2 forecast, Cluster 1 (warmer outcome in the East) is the more likely one. First, the closing 10 days of March have seen the presence of much less cold air than the colder cluster. Second, some of the large-scale hemispheric changes that have been evolving in response to ENSO conditions also favor a milder outcome in the East. Third, the 3/30 run of the EPS weeklies were warmer than the 3/27 run. Fourth, the core of the cold on the CFSv2 is more consistent with the warmer cluster with the primary difference being its showing modest cold anomalies that extend to the East Coast. Overall, even as much of the East Coast will likely be on the mild side of normal, warm anomalies very likely won't rival those of February or March.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.2 -1.0 0.7 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -1.5

An exceptionally warm March is now concluding on a cool note. The first week of April will likely be somewhat cooler than normal to near normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution. New Orleans will likely record a monthly average temperature near 73.1°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012. It is very likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). It is increasingly likely that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -6.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.189. On March 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.007 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.931. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be at least somewhat warmer than normal in the East. Although recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown cooler, the latest run of the EPS weeklies was warmer.

An exceptionally warm March is now concluding. The first week of April will likely be somewhat cooler than normal to near normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included: Charleston, SC: 87° (tied record set in 1985 and tied in 2012); Jacksonville: 91° (old record: 89°, 1907 and 1991) ***Record 5th March day with a high temperature of 90° or above (old record: 4, March 1907)***; Mobile: 87° (old record: 85°, 1879); New Bern, NC: 89° (old record: 88°, 1985); New Orleans: 84° (old record: 83°, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2017); Pensacola: 87° (old record: 83°, 1884 and 1974); and, Savannah: 90° (tied record set in 1907) New Orleans is on track to record a monthly average temperature near 72.8°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012. It is very likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). It is increasingly likely that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -11.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024. On March 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.875 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.786. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Morning thoughts... 1. The system responsible for the rain yesterday and overnight will be moving well north of the region today. The area of steadiest rain is now moving eastward across parts of upstate New York, Ontario, Quebec, and parts of northern New England. 2. Select rainfall amounts through 8 am include: Allentown: 0.77"; Boston: 0.25"; Bridgeport: 0.28"; Islip: 0.49"; New York City: 0.47"; Newark: 0.23"; Philadelphia: 1.14"; and, Providence: 0.74" 3. More record heat is likely in the Southeast. Following its March record high temperature of 94° yesterday, Jacksonville could reach 90° for a record-breaking 5th time in March later today. 4. On March 28, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 13,559,443 square kilometers. That was the lowest figure on record for March 28. The old record was 13,572,036 square kilometers, which was set in 2017.

I agree. The sooner this pandemic is stifled, preferably ended, the better.

Temperatures held mainly in the 40s this afternoon. Nevertheless, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures. The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City was 49.3° and for Philadelphia it was 50.5°. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. The core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States. The cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City. In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included: Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 85°, 1921 and 2007); Beckley, WV: 85° (old record: 81°, 1989); Charleston, WV: 87° (tied record set in 1945); Crestview, FL: 87° (old record: 2007, 2009, and 2017); Jacksonville: 94° (old record: 89°, 1994 and 2009) ***New March Record***; New Bern, NC: 91° (old record: 85°, 1939); New Orleans: 88° (old record: 84°, 1972); Orlando: 93° (old record: 92°, 1923 and 1994); Pensacola: 84° (old record: 83°, 2009); Savannah: 90° (old record: 89°, 1907); and, Tampa: 88° (tied record set in 1989) New Orleans is on track to record a monthly average temperature near 72.7°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). It is also possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -15.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.043. On March 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.789 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.710. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

I think such a summer is a real possibility.

Morning thoughts... 1. The region is in line for a moderate rainstorm from late morning into mid-day tomorrow. Cities such as Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia should pick up 0.50" - 1.00" rain. Boston will likely see 0.25"-0.75". 2. Following the storm, temperatures will rebound. 3. The first week of April looks to be cooler than normal, but not exceptionally cool.