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donsutherland1

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  1. Tomorrow will see spectacular sunshine accompanied by seasonably warm temperatures. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +10.03 The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.020 today. On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.103 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.436 (RMM).
  2. The QBO+ is definitely emerging. It will likely be positive or strongly positive during the upcoming winter.
  3. Galveston, with a period of record that goes back to May 1874, had its warmest April, May, and June on record.
  4. Morning thoughts… Clouds will yield to abundant sunshine. It will be warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be fair and pleasantly warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.5° Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.0°
  5. Some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves across the region this evening. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, it will be somewhat cooler and less humid for several days. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +8.37 The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.329 today. On June 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.436 (RMM). The June 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM).
  6. From across the Long Island Sound:
  7. Morning thoughts… Today will variably cloudy and warm. Thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, are likely High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 86° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 90° Tomorrow and Independence Day will be fair and pleasantly warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 84.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 86.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 87.8°
  8. Cases where U.S. stations with long periods of record (POR) hold three consecutive record warm months are uncommon. To compile a list, the following criteria were used: Stations had at least 100 years of monthly data for the reference months (months for which the records were set) All daily data was available in the record warm months or, when missing values were substituted with monthly minimum readings, the record was still intact. It should be noted that stations with shorter period of record have also had three consecutive record warm months. For example, McAllen, TX saw its warmest September, October, and November in 2016, but its period of record begins in June 1941. Anchorage, which experienced its warmest June, July, and August on record in 2019 with a climate record that goes back to November 1953 is another example. Among the cases from stations with long periods of record that saw three consecutive record warm months, 69% have occurred since 2010. Primarily the cases can be found in areas where aridification is underway. The 1930s Dust Bowl era experienced conditions that mimicked the aridification that is underway in the Southwest on account of anthropogenic climate change. A number of stations having shorter periods of record are influenced by warming from marine heatwaves, which have also been increasing in frequency on account of anthropogenic climate change. Through June 2022, a total of 31 stations report three consecutive record warm months, but in the case of Trenton, the minimum temperature data for July 1865 is suspect and numerous dates had missing data. Most of the excluded stations had short periods of record. A few stations had large amounts of missing daily data for the record warm months. Out of the remaining 30 stations, 24 (80%) experienced their three consecutive record warm months during 2010 or later.
  9. Under strong sunshine, the mercury soared into the 90s in many parts of the region. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 91° Baltimore: 96° Boston: 92° Hartford: 94° New York City: 91° Newark: 99° Philadelphia: 94° Washington, DC: 92° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A cold front will move across the region bringing thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could grow to severe levels. Afterward, it will be somewhat cooler. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +19.39 today. The old daily record was +21.58 in 2009) The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.168 today. On June 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.483 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.555 (RMM).
  10. Morning thoughts… Today will partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Coastal areas will be somewhat cooler. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 93° Tomorrow will variably cloudy. Thunderstorms are likely. Some could be severe. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.6°
  11. Galveston has seemingly been caught in summer's heat well before the summer even began. April saw Galveston edge past its relatively fresh mark of 75.0° from 2017 with a mean temperature of 75.5°. During May, the fire of summer burned all too hot for the close of spring. In terms of temperatures, the calendar had skipped ahead to June. The May 2022 average temperature of 83.0° demolished the 80.4° record that had been set in 2018. Prior to 2012, no May going back to 1875 had ever seen an average temperature of 80.0°. The unrelenting heat continued through June melting the fairly recent record that displaced the prior longstanding record. June 1881 registered an average temperature of 85.5°. That record stood for 130 years until it was eclipsed with an 86.2° mean temperature in 2011. Eleven years later, that record was erased, as June 2022 logged in with a mean temperature of 87.5°. Never before had Galveston experienced such warmth in July, let alone June. Only three cases in August were hotter. The combination of a warming climate, ongoing drought, persistent heat dome, and exceptionally warm coastal waters produced this outcome. Marine heatwaves have grown 20 times more common on account of anthropogenic climate change. During the month of June, the waters surrounding Galveston Island saw temperatures reaching 90°. Marine heatwaves and/or drought/emergent aridification have been factors in recent years during long periods of exceptional warmth. They have been present in numerous areas when monthly warm temperature records have been set in three consecutive months. Galveston is the most recent such case.
  12. New York City is concluding a somewhat cooler than normal June, though much of the region saw near or somewhat above normal temperatures. In Central Park, the mean temperature was 71.4°, which was 0.6° below normal. Tomorrow will likely be the hottest day of the week. Many locations will see temperatures top out in the lower and perhaps middle 90s. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from tomorrow through Saturday. Afterward, it will be somewhat cooler. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. However, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. Galveston is now wrapping up its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was July-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. Anchorage is also concluding its first June on record where the high temperature reached or exceeded 60° on all 30 days. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +24.39 today. The old daily record was +21.58 in 2009) The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.487 today. On June 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.556 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.921 (RMM).
  13. DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.0
  14. Morning thoughts… Today will mostly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be fair and hot. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.8° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.4°
  15. Temperatures rose into the middle 80s today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with widespread upper 80s and some lower 90s. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from tomorrow through Saturday. In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +26.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.317 today. On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.923 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.955 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).
  16. I agree. But that was the decision.
  17. Upon a review, the 1983 record was upheld. I emailed NCEI about the record back in 2018 and then posted the response here:
  18. There is an important difference between what the charts are measuring and the point @Bluewave et al., have been making. The charts measure daytime and nighttime temperatures, not high and low temperatures. There could be a 2-degree error during a one-to-two hour period with all the other hours having small errors. The daytime error would then be small. The issue raised concerns high temperatures (mainly during late spring to early fall). At present, Central Park’s hourly temperatures diverge from local and Micronet temperatures around 18z until near 20z (one can see it on the most recent daily chart shown on the Gladstone website). That time shifts a little as the season progresses hinting at shadowing during a small part of the day. However, that’s typically when some of the day’s highest readings occur. Thus, the issue noted in discussions here and by local meteorologists.
  19. Morning thoughts… Today will mostly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Tomorrow and Friday will be very warm days. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.6° Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2°
  20. Warmer air will return tomorrow. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday. In the South, Galveston is now virtually certain to record its third consecutive record warm month. The last time that happened was June-September 2020 in Oracle, AZ and Tucson. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +22.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.073 today. On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.953 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.663 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).
  21. Morning thoughts… Today will mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 82° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.0°
  22. In the wake of today's frontal passage, tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasantly warm. Afterward, warmer air will return. Parts of the region could even experience a heatwave from Thursday through Saturday. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +31.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.188 today. On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.664 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.815 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).
  23. Morning thoughts… Today will partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow be fair but somewhat cooler than normal. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.0° Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.7°
  24. A cold front will move across the region tomorrow with showers and thundershowers. It will bring a decisive but short-lived end to this weekend's heat. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +27.55 today. The old daily record was +25.02, which was set in 2009. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.646 today. On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.699 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (0.9° below normal).
  25. Temperatures reached the 90s in many parts of the region with Newark topping out at 96° this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another hot day. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. A few middle 90s are possible. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday. In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 has now moved into the region. Portland could see the thermometer make a run at 100° tomorrow. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +14.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.700 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.467 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).
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