donsutherland1

On that, I also agree. Summer 2026 is becoming much like Summer 2019 with wave after wave of intense heat in Europe.

The forecast heat dome is looking more and more impressive. The NBM shows a peak of 105° +/- 5° at Washington, DC. The all-time mark is 106°. This situation will merit watching.

It will be mainly cloudy tomorrow. Some showers are possible tonight into tomorrow. A warming trend could commence on Sunday. The guidance increasingly suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June and start July. Some of the guidance suggests that the region could see its highest temperatures so far this summer during the middle of next week. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -13.92 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.710 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4 (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of crushing inescapable heat in much of Europe. Saarbrücken, Germany (41.3C/106.3F) and Basel, Switzerland (38.8C/101.8F) set new national all-time heat records. Locations in France also set additional all-time records. Santon Downham (37.3C/99.1F) set a national UK June record.

Excerpts from World Weather Attribution concerning Europe's record-breaking June heatwave: Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades Over the region studied this heatwave is the most severe ever recorded. In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heatwave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely than today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have been more than a hundred times less likely in 2003. Across large parts of Western Europe, June is warming faster than any other month. In addition, daily maximum temperatures are warming faster than night time temperatures, though both are warming much faster than global warming. The hottest daily temperatures are warming at about triple the rate of global warming and night time temperatures at about twice the rate. Many capital cities are experiencing not only their hottest June 3-day period but also the hottest three-day period since 1950, according to the ERA5 dataset. However, due to global warming, these very high temperatures are now expected regularly during the summer months in many capitals. This means that a similar heatwave in June would have been about 3.5°C cooler during the day in 1976 and about 2°C cooler in 2003. The nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4°C cooler in June 1976 and about 1.3°C cooler in June 2003. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed... This summer shows that at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope. Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades/

A shower or thundershower is possible tonight into early tomorrow. Afterward, tomorrow will be pleasantly warm with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 80s. Some showers are possible tomorrow night and then again Friday night or Saturday. A warming trend could commence on Sunday. The guidance increasingly suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June and start July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.28 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.424 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4 (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of furnace-like heat in France, Jersey, and the UK. The extreme heat will shift eastward over the next few days.

The Paris-Montouris station, for which records go back to 1872, has recorded its first case of two consecutive 40°C (104°F) or above days. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg topped out at 41.2°C (106.2°F). Jersey (Maison St. Louis: 39.3°C/102.7°F) and Switzerland (Basel: 38.0°C/100.4°F) set national all-time records. The UK (Merrifield: 36.7°C/98.1F) set a national June monthly record.

The official announcement from Météo-France: Translation: June 24, 2026 France has just experienced its hottest day ever recorded. Across the country, the average temperature over 24 hours reached 30°C, exceeding the 29.9°C measured... the day before, which was already the hottest day ever recorded since measurements began in 1947.

It showed up on the list of all-time records, so I noted it.

Tomorrow and Friday will be pleasantly warm days with highs in the lower 80s. Some showers are possible tomorrow night and then again Friday night or Saturday. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.92 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.406 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5 (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Paris, like NYC, has multiple sites. I referenced one such site.

I agree. Indeed, one location in coastal France beat its all-time record that was set just yesterday by 4.0C (7.2F).

"Intense heat destroys even the temper of steel..."-George Prentice. It was that kind of day in France, Spain, and the UK today. In Paris, no relief was found under the trees of Jardin du Luxembourg as the mercury rose to 42.2C (108.0F). The UK recorded its hottest June temperature on record with a high of 36.1C (97.0F) at Gosport. As a result of the ongoing heatwave, which is France's worst June heatwave on record, 2026 already accounts for the second most all-time record high temperatures for any calendar year.

Those were monthly records. 13 all-time records were broken at stations with 80+ year climate records.

Any showers will depart this evening. It will turn somewhat warmer for tomorrow through Friday will likely see highs in the lower 80s. Some showers are possible as a warm front moves across the region on Friday or Saturday. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.68 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.369 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It was a surreal day in France. The air was "a furnace breath." The "heatquake" toppled, shattered, and demolished more than 100 all-time high temperature records. June 2026 has surpassed June 2019 for setting the most all-time record highs in the month of June.

Very tragic. Unfortunately, there will almost certainly be many more fatalities across Europe as the heat dome expands.

Through 6 pm, rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.78" Islip: 0.07" New York City: 0.58" Newark: 1.00" White Plains: 0.50" Showers and periods of rain will likely continue into early tomorrow. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Following the storm, readings will reach the middle and upper 70s tomorrow. Wednesday through Friday will likely see highs in the lower 80s. Some showers are possible as a warm front moves across the region on Friday. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.029 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It will be interesting to see how this ultimately plays out. I suspect that the Sonoran Desert has yet to see its highest temperatures this summer, even if the forecast values for this week verify.

France sizzled under a heat dome that felt more like a fire dome today. More than 300 locations reached 40C (104F) or above, 123 all-time records were set, and an additional 453 monthly records were set.

All-time temperature records are again falling in France. As of early this afternoon (local time), 2026 had produced the tenth most all-time records for any calendar year (and second most in June). By the close of today, 2026 will very likely rank 6th highest. Seven of the ten years with the most all-time records have occurred since 2015.

IMO, the big issue right now is the disagreement between the JAMSTEC (much cooler ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly) and other guidance e.g., ECMWF seasonal (similar or warmer Region 1+2 anomaly relative to the Region 3.4 anomaly). We're in June. What is fairly certain is that a strong/super ENSO event is likely. In addition, the Region 1+2 anomaly has been running higher than the Region 3.4 anomaly into early June. Given the forecast strength of the ENSO, strong or persistent blocking would be helpful if one is looking to maximize wintry prospects. Whether this will be more like 1877-78, 1972-73, 1982-83, or 1997-98 remains to be seen, especially this far out.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9 (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The heat intensified in France today. All-time temperature records began melting from the relentless heat. Eleven locations set new all-time marks and 112 reached 40°C (104.0°F) or above. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg reached 38.3°C (100.9°F), narrowly missing its June monthly record that was set on June 19th (38.4°C/101.1°F).