donsutherland1

Central Park, JFK Airport, and LaGuardia Airport had identical low and high temperatures (57°-42°) today. The last time that happened was August 29, 2025 when all three stations had a 78°-65° daily temperature range. That was the only such occurrence last year. The record is 4 occurrences. That record was set in 1959 and tied in 1968 and 1976.

Cooler conditions will return to the region tomorrow. Temperatures will likely top out in the 50s through Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely struggle to reach the lower 50s. Wednesday morning could see the low temperature approach 32° in New York City. Should the mercury reach 32°, New York City would see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -7.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.006 today.

Some showers are possible tonight into tomorrow. Tomorrow will remain mild with highs in the middle and upper 60s. A cold front that will bring showers or a thundershower tomorrow afternoon or evening will result in cooler conditions returning to the region on Monday. Temperatures through midweek will likely top out in the 50s. The coolest weather is likely on Wednesday when the low could approach 32° in New York City. If so, New York City could see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -4.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.054 today.

The 12z NBM is a little cooler (32°).

April 10, 1997: 28°

DCA: +3.8 NYC: +2.7 BOS: +2.5 ORD: +3.9 ATL: +5.2 IAH: +3.5 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.0 SEA: +0.3

Will do.

Tomorrow and Sunday will remain mild with highs in the middle and upper 60s. Some spots could reach 70° or a little warmer. However, a cold front that will bring showers or a thundershower late Sunday or Sunday night will result in cooler conditions returning to the region on Monday. Temperatures through midweek will likely top out in the 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -4.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.917 today.

Yes.

It will turn noticeably warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s to perhaps 70°. Friday should feature highs near or just above 70°. Sunday will remain mild with highs in the middle and upper 60s. However, a cold front will result in cooler conditions returning to the region on Monday. Temperatures through midweek will likely top out in the 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -8.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.999 today.

New York City finished March with a monthly mean temperature of 46.8°. That was 4.0° above normal and 4.3° above the earlier 1981-2020 baseline.

Phoenix was so warm during March 2026 that its mean monthly low, mean monthly high, and mean monthly temperatures would all have ranked second hottest on record for April. Numerous March temperature records surpassed the most extreme values experienced during April.

Powered by a monster heat dome that would be a rarity during the summer, Phoenix and the Southwest experienced mind-boggling warmth during March. Chart 1: Daily Temperatures: Chart 2: Return Time of Monthly Mean Temperature (Historic Period): The warmth has been persistent since December. December, February, and March set new records for warmest December, February, and March on record. As a result, Phoenix also experienced its warmest December-March period by a large margin.

Yes. That would be better. The instrument details mentioned by @chubbs could still play a role at some sites.

Bad methodology. Notice he uses MT and WY. 90s in March are virtually assured to be near or at zero. Thus he assures himself the kind of conclusion he seeks. A more robust approach would involve standardized measurements, e.g., the number of highs 1 sigma, 2 sigma, etc., above the 20th century baseline.

Tomorrow will be noticeably warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area. The warming trend will continue through the remainder of March with the temperature reaching the lower and middle 70s as March concludes on Monday. April will also start with readings topping out in the lower to middle 70s, but a cold front will knock down temperatures shortly afterward. A wet period could follow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -8.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.443 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Using a chart inspired by Jeff Berardelli's return-time charts, here's how Fairbanks would look for March 2026: And December-March (cases prior to 1911-12 were excluded due to the number of missing days during the 1905-06 through 1910-11 period):

UHI, which is an important contributor, has been mentioned in several of the past Phoenix-related threads. Even setting aside, UHI, there has been a strong warming trend in Arizona and the Southwest. During 1970-2025, Arizona's minimum temperatures have warmed an average of 0.6°/decade. Phoenix's have increased by 0.8°/decade. In terms of maximum temperatures, Arizona's rate of warming has been 0.7°/decade while Phoenix's has been 0.8°/decade. The differences are a reasonable but not perfect proxy for the impact of UHI. The ongoing March heat is widespread. The following stations with 100-year or longer climate records are on course for their warmest March on record. Some will break their existing records by sizable margins.

The weekend started on a cold note. Low temperatures included: Boston: 27° Danbury: 28° Bridgeport: 31° Islip: 32° New York City: 31° Newark: 31° Philadelphia: 33° Poughkeepsie: 25° Sussex: 25° White Plains: 27° Tomorrow will become somewhat milder. The warming trend will continue through the remainder of March with the temperature reaching the lower and middle 70s as March concludes. April will also start with readings topping out in the lower to middle 70s, but a cold front will knock down temperatures shortly afterward. A wet period could follow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -11.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.569 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (3.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Flagstaff has an altitude > 2,100 meters or about 7,000 feet ASL.

Many cities in the Southwest and even California will have experienced their warmest March on record, some by large margins.

Phoenix's hottest March on record is nearing an end. This space will provide numerous highlights. Some things that are virtually certain: 1) March 2026 will have a mean temperature that would rank it as the second warmest April. 2) Prior to 2026, the average record high maximum temperature for March 16-31 was 96.6°. The March 16-31 period will have an average high temperature that exceeds that average. 3) Phoenix tied or exceeded its March monthly record high temperature on 9 days. 4) In terms of statistical anomalies related to monthly mean temperatures, the Phoenix monthly mean temperature will easily surpass the December 2015 mean in New York City relative to each city's historical climate record. The above is an AI-generated artistic rendition of the March 2026 heat in Phoenix.

The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder. The warming trend will continue through the remainder of March with the temperature reaching the 70s as March concludes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -12.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.511 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The SST chart comes from here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2

At this time, especially with the seasonal transition underway, one has to be cautious about such events given model skill limitations. The "spring ENSO barrier" in prediction remains real. By early summer, the picture should be clearer.