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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    Bridgeport picked up 1.44" (36.6 mm) of rain in the past hour. That is tied for its 5th heaviest hourly August rainfall. Today, it has picked up 2.35" (59.7 mm) of rain breaking its daily mark of 1.69" (42.9 mm) from 1970. 2.34" (59.4 mm) has fallen in the past two hours. Heavy rain has moved into New Haven.
  2. donsutherland1
    Bridgeport has now received 1.79" (45.5 mm) of rain. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" (42.9 mm) of rain that was set in 1970.
  3. donsutherland1
    The thunderstorms that dumped hourly rainfall of 0.95" at LaGuardia Airport and 1.25" at Newark, have produced 0.90" at Bridgeport in the past hour.
  4. donsutherland1
    Newark had hourly rainfall of 1.25" (1.41" so far today). Flash flooding was reported in the vicinity of Newark Airport. LaGuardia picked up 0.95" rain in an hour and 1.44" over two hours. Despite the theoretical estimate that storm drains in the New York City Area can handle 1.75"/hour rainfall, the practical reality is that once hourly amounts approach or reach 1.00"/hour, flooding begins to occur. That parts of New York City have seen flooding as per social media and Newark experienced flash flooding this morning is another illustrative case that the practical capacity is lower than the theoretical capacity.
  5. donsutherland1
    Parts of the region will see some showers or thundershowers tonight into the first half of tomorrow. Afterward, clouds will break and the mercury rise toward 80° tomorrow. Monday through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.316 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  6. donsutherland1
    The weekend will feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Sunday will see clouds break and the mercury rise toward 80°. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -32.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.236 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  7. donsutherland1
    In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.
  8. donsutherland1
    Yesterday's daily rainfall records: Islip: 3.27" (old record: 2.61", 2001) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.86" (old record: 1.31", 1963) Although overdone, it seems that yesterday's 12z HREF did quite well with the axis of heaviest rain occurring in the Nassau/Suffolk County areas.
  9. donsutherland1
    No. It would rank 13th. Below are the ten highest hourly amounts:
  10. donsutherland1
    The ongoing system has brought 1" or more hourly amounts of rain to numerous locations in the New York City area. Some locations include:
  11. donsutherland1
    Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.82" of rain. That is the highest hourly amount on any August 20th since hourly data was recorded. The old hourly mark was 0.63" from 1950. A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region into late tonight. The New York City area will see a general 2"-4" rainfall with local amounts of 5" by 8 am tomorrow. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the upper 70s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -35.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.061 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  12. donsutherland1
    Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.
  13. donsutherland1
    The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:
  14. donsutherland1
    The first 20 days of August have been the warmest on record globally on the ERA-5 dataset. Powered by fossil fuel-driven climate change and an ongoing strong El Niño, 2026 has now set 11 consecutive records. 2026 needs to average 16.578°C for the remainder of August to surpass the 2024 record. That appears very likely given the latest guidance.
  15. donsutherland1
    The distributions of Phoenix's warming summer high temperatures is shown below. Summer Mean High: 1961-1990: 104.3° 1991-2020: 105.4° 1996-2025: 105.9°
  16. donsutherland1
    A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Parts of the region could experience flooding. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the lower 80s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -28.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  17. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow should mainly fair and very warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  18. donsutherland1
    I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.
  19. donsutherland1
    The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.
  20. donsutherland1
    From this morning via iPhone:
  21. donsutherland1
    A few spots could see an evening shower or thundershower. Most of the region will remain dry. Tomorrow and Wednesday should mainly fair and warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  22. donsutherland1
    Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely into this evening into early tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.420 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  23. donsutherland1
    Thank you for the kind words.
  24. donsutherland1
    With a super El Niño raging in combination with the rising heat of anthropogenic climate change, 2026 has now set daily global temperature records on the ERA-5 dataset for seven consecutive days. In addition, 2026 has the latest 17°C or above global mean temperature by seven days. ERA-5 data for the last four years and daily records for the August 8-14 period are below. For reference, below are the monthly records and number of daily records by year (through August 14, 2026).
  25. donsutherland1
    Sunrise this morning.
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