donsutherland1

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +10.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

NBM 5.0:

That would break the four-month record that was set during November-February 2025-2026 (2.4°), which is currently the largest such margin for any four-month period. For reference:

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will build in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +26.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.365 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. I will do so.

Sky this morning over a still largely ice-covered Larchmont Reservoir:

With today's snowfall, Central Park tied the record for fewest days between an 80° or above temperature at Central Park and a trace or more of snow. The records are below: April 7, 1942: 82°; April 9, 1942: 2.1" March 20, 1945: 83°; March 22, 1945: Trace April 1, 1978: 81°; April 3, 1978: Trace March 10, 2026: 80°; March 12, 2026: Trace Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. Following a soaking rain on Monday, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.714 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.8° (2.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Snowing in the Bronx.

DCA picked up 0.1" today after an early morning high of 78°. Yesterday's high there was 86°.

There is now sleet in the Bronx.

While Phoenix awaits the development of what will likely become a super March heatwave, a look back at February's exceptional warmth reveals that February 2026 would currently rank as the 15th warmest March on record. February and March records go back to 1896.

Yes. The warming trend is mostly climate change now. UHI's main contribution is the temperature level, not the trend. Since 1990, Phoenix has been warming at essentially the same rate as both Arizona and the Southwest Region.

For Newark? Just once: April 13, 2014: 83° April 14, 2014: 80° April 15, 2014: 0.3"

Some periods of rain and a thunderstorm are likely tonight into tomorrow. An additional period of rain possibly mixing with wet snow is possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening. With temperatures remaining well above freezing, little or no accumulation is likely in New York City. Nevertheless, if a trace or more of snow is recorded, that would tie the record for fewest days between an 80° or above temperature at Central Park and a trace or more of snow. The records are below: April 7, 1942: 82°; April 9, 1942: 2.1" March 20, 1945: 83°; March 22, 1945: Trace April 1, 1978: 81°; April 3, 1978: Trace It will turn cooler but not especially cold starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. A shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.534 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes, Phoenix has UHI, and I've often noted that the combination of UHI and climate change are responsible for the outcome. My main point is that a disproportionate share of the warmest months have occurred since 2020.

Record heat prevailed across parts of the region. Records were set at Central Park, LaGuardia Airport, and New York. Central Park achieved New York City's earliest-season 80° reading. Tomorrow will be another springlike day in much of the region. Temperatures will generally top out in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it will turn cooler but not especially cold through the weekend. A shot of much cooler air could arrive early next week. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.319 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

New York City reached 80F (26.7C) today. That breaks the daily record of 79F (26.1C) from 2016. It is also New York City's earliest 80F (26.7C) or above temperature on record. The prior record was set on March 13, 1990.

Flagstaff has four such months: June (2024), July (2023), August (2020), and October (2024). Record Warm Months have been common in the Southwest since 2020: 8, Salt Lake City and Tucson 7, Phoenix 6, Las Vegas 5, Albuquerque, Palm Springs and Reno 4, Flagstaff 2, Denver Flagstaff's record warmest months with records set in 2020 or later are June, July, August, and October.

Exceptional warmth covered the region. The thermometer rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Bridgeport (64°), Islip (68°) and JFK Airport (67°) tied daily records. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be springlike days in much of the region. Temperatures will generally top out in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it will turn cooler but not especially cold. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +24.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.062 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Central Park has reached 70° for the first time since October 19, 2025.

Without an AO-, there's nothing to lock in the trough.

Central Park: 78; LaGuardia Airport: 79; Newark reached 80.

It is likely that Bridgeport's 42-day streak with 1" or greater snow cover will have ended today. That would be the longest such stretch since January 24-March 17, 2015 (53 days) and tied for the 3rd longest such streak on record.

The temperature soared into the upper 60s and even lower 70s across parts of the region. The south shore of Connecticut, Long Island, Queens, and Brooklyn were cooler. Highs included: Bridgeport: 57° Islip: 58° New York City-Central Park: 69° (highest since October 19) New York City-JFK Airport: 67° (highest since November 8) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 69° (highest since October 19) Newark: 73° (highest since October 19) Tomorrow through Wednesday will be springlike days in much of the region. Temperatures will generally top out in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +27.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.594 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.