donsutherland1

The Dust Bowl occupies an almost sacred place in the mythology of American climate-change denial. For decades, July 1936 was treated as something more than an old weather record. It was a relic. It was a supposedly untouchable reminder that extreme heat had happened long before modern greenhouse-gas concentrations reached today’s levels. Whenever evidence of warming accumulated, the response could be summoned: What about 1936? If the climate is warming, why hasn’t that record been broken? For ninety years, it wasn’t. Even July 2012 fell short. Then came July 2026. NOAA reported that July 2026 averaged 76.89°F across the contiguous United States, surpassing July 1936 and becoming the hottest month in the nation’s instrumental record. The seemingly unbreakable record had fallen. One monthly record does not prove climate change. Science does not rest on a single heat wave, drought, hurricane, or thermometer. The case for human-caused warming rests on something far larger: rising global temperatures, increasing ocean heat, retreating ice, rising seas, changing extremes, and the well-established physics of greenhouse gases. But the fall of July 1936 matters enormously as a symbol. For years, climate-change deniers used the endurance of that record as evidence that modern warming was exaggerated or nonexistent. Now the record they had elevated into an argument no longer supports them. And that creates a problem. If 1936 mattered when it stood unbeaten, it cannot suddenly become meaningless the moment it falls. The initial response from parts of the denial movement has been predictable. Denial, excuses, and insinuations that NOAA’s measurements somehow are not the “real” measurements. A CFACT policy analyst, for example, appealed to supposedly superior “real measured thermometer data.” But where is the analysis? Where is the methodology? Where is the reproducible evidence demonstrating that NOAA is wrong? Where is the paper with all that information? There is nothing. Just a hollow claim on social media. Without those things, “I have the real data” is not a scientific argument. It is an appeal to belief. It is a hallucination of an alternate reality that is as irrelevant to science as it is unreal. Science works differently. Produce the data. Explain the method. Show the calculations. Allow others to test them. If the evidence survives scrutiny, scientific understanding changes. Those rules may not hold in the policy world where ideology holds enormous power and interests influence thinking. But the scientific world is a whole different place. Pursuit of truth, even if that pursuit requires discarding earlier understanding, is of paramount importance. Ideological denial works in reverse of science. When evidence threatens the conclusion, the evidence itself becomes suspect. Beliefs, ideology, and interests must be defended, even at the cost of truth. The above rejection of the reality that July 2026 was hotter than July 1936 recalls opponents of Galileo who resisted observations that threatened the universe they already believed in. Rather than see for themselves through Galileo's telescope, the turned down his invitation. Sometimes it is easier to distrust the telescope than to rebuild one's understanding of the cosmos. To those timid souls, maintaining error is far more comforting than accepting that one's belief was wrong. Genuine courage gives one the strength to revise one's thinking when the evidence suggests such change is needed. The NOAA has confirmed that July 2026 is now the hottest month on record in the United States. A longstanding record has not merely been surpassed. One of the denial movement’s most durable rhetorical monuments has been toppled. Climate-change denial will not disappear because of a single record. New excuses will arise. Goalposts will be moved. But something important has changed. For ninety years, July 1936 stood as the great American heat record. It survived generation after generation. It survived 2012. It survived decades of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Then, in July 2026, it fell. Science has no sacred records. It has evidence. 1936 was evidence. 2026 is evidence. The thermometer has now rendered its verdict. Pretense that it has not cannot affect reality. Pretense can only undermine the credibility of those who choose not to accept reality.

A few showers or thundershowers are possible this evening and early tonight. Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Above normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday or Thursday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +2.00 today. That ended the 91-day streak during which the SOI was negative. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.138 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

In the early release of data, July 2026 has dethroned July 1936 as the hottest month on record for the United States. With July warming about 0.51° per decade since 1980, the longstanding Dust Bowl era record was bound to fall. July 2012 narrowly fell short of the mark. July 2026 surpassed it by more than 0.10°.

Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -9.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. We'll see if 2026 can get a 90° or above high in September. After today or tomorrow, there should be a break in 90s for at least a week or two.

Aside from a widely scattered shower or thundershower, this evening and tonight will be variably cloudy and warm. Above normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the weekend until near the middle of next week. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.288 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Four cloud shots from my recent trip to the Shenandoah National Park:

With yesterday's 91° high, 2026 has become only the fifth year on record for Central Park with highs of 90° or above in April, May, June, July, and August. The other years are 1896, 1962, 1991, and 2010. It is the only year that also included a high of 80° or above in March followed by the 90s in April through August. Records go back to 1869.

I'm happy to learn the driver is ok.

Shelf cloud just before the thunderstorm impacted Larchmont.

Mammatus clouds ahead of an approaching thunderstorm a short time ago.

I drove to through this cell on reaching I-87 from near Mahwah. There was vivid lightning and an area of pea-sized hail.

A few locations could still see a shower or thundershower this evening. Most of the region will likely be dry. Rainfall totals through 4 pm include: Bridgeport: 0.97" (old record: 0.95", 1954) Hartford: 3.54" (old record: 3.18", 1954) ***7th Highest August Daily Amount*** Islip: 1.89" (old record: 1.36", 1987) New York City-Central Park: 1.93" New York City-JFK Airport: 2.75" (old record: 1.90", 1948) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.22" Newark: 2.27" (old record: 1.60", 1885) Westfield: 1.69" Westhampton: 1.63" (old record: 1.41", 1961) Worcester: 1.52" (tied record set in 1996) No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. However, it will turn warmer during the second half of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.154 today.

The ongoing super El Niño is approaching historic proportions in ENSO Region 1+2. The anomaly for the week centered around July 30 was +4.1°C. The last time the anomaly was at least as high was the week centered around July 6, 1983 (+4.2°C) as the 1982-83 super El Niño was nearing an end. The record is +4.5°C for the week centered around June 29, 1983.

Through 9 am, JFK Airport has received 2.05" of rain. That breaks the old record of 1.90" from 1948.

Newark has now received 1.67" of rain today. That breaks the August 3 daily record of 1.60" from 1885. As was the case with the most recent large rain event, the White Plains precipitation gauge is down. Although the data shows 0.04" on July 29 and 0.02" on July 30, those figures understate the actual figures, as the gauge was down for large stretches of rain.

Denver has quietly reached and then surpassed 40 90° or above days. What was once an uncommon event has now become routine in the warming climate. Through August 2, 2026, Denver has had 41 such days. During 1872-1999, Denver saw 40 or more such days about once every 7.5 years. Since 2000, such years have occurred once every 1.2 years. Eleven of the last 12 years have seen 40 or more such days.

A moderate to significant rainfall is likely tomorrow into Tuesday. Much of the New York City area will likely see 0.50"-1.50" of rain. An area of 2.00"-3.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible, especially north and west of New York City. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.297 today.

August 2026 calendar with record highs and record lows for Central Park.

August has begun on a quiet but warm note. No exceptional heat or severe storms were present to mark the start of the month. Tomorrow will be another quiet day with readings reaching the lower 80s. Afterward, a moderate to potentially locally significant rainfall is likely Monday into Tuesday. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

The map is dated. Nevertheless, winter fire activity in South America has so far been largely suppressed by a wetter to much wetter than normal start to winter. The U.S. has seen a fairly sizable pickup in fire activity in late July.

The first half of June+first half of July would have ranked as the 10th warmest such period. The second half of June + second half of July would rank as the 51st coolest such period (mean temperature: 74.0°; 2009 with a mean temperature of 68.0° is the coolest such period).

Heat domes aren't new. But the warming background climate has made even relatively ordinary heat domes much hotter than they were decades ago. Regional patterns coupled with a wetter climate has likely contributed to the recent absence of long-duration heatwaves in parts of the Northeast.

Thank you. I made it.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 1.6