donsutherland1

From Patchogue from that storm:

At this stage, models don't handle tracks and synoptic details very skillfully. Thus, there remains latitude for either a suppressed solution or even a big hit into southern New England. The odds somewhat favor the former, but that doesn't mean that the New York City area can't see a moderate or significant snowfall while parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic have a major snowfall. The 18z GFS came northward. It showed > 6" at Raleigh. Since 1890, there were 44 storms that brought 6" or more snow to Raleigh. While 24 (55%) had no measurable snow in New York City, 12 (27%) had 4" or more and 8 (18%) had 6" or more. The most recent storm to bring 6" or more snow to both Raleigh and New York City was the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 2010. Interestingly, almost 20% of individual EPS members showed 6" or more now, which would be in line with the historic probabilities associated with significant snowfalls in Raleigh. Of course, as noted in the first paragraph, nothing is cast in stone. Historically, if the teleconnection forecast is reasonably accurate, the heaviest snows could favor Washington-Baltimore-Richmond, but it's still possible to get significant snows into New York City. By Thursday, the guidance will be handling the synoptic details with skill. By that time, we should have a much better idea of what to expect. For now, aside from the possibility of a snowstorm, the details cannot be pinned down with much accuracy. At least there's something on the proverbial radar.

The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead. Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I had to look at the 4.3 updates to see if any new models were added. They weren't. I agree that it should be easier to find this documentation.

The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:

Cold. Here's the precipitation:

Tarrytown, NY from early this afternoon:

Probably 2/5-6/2010.

Nice improvement on the GGEM.

Comparison of the 1/19 6z and 12z GFS runs: 6z: 12z:

Yes. You're right. Hopefully, the moderators can move my misplaced posts to the correct thread.

I made it from the 24-hour Pivotal weather QPF amounts.

Places like Westhampton will likely see at least single digits, assuming clear skies and a lack of wind. Records for Westhampton are -7 on 1/24 and 1 on 1/25.

Only a few locations could tie or break record low maximum temperatures. Record low minimum temperatures are too low.

Unfortunately, that's the whole list from 1950-present.

For historical reference, the biggest snowstorms/blizzards during January-February 1950-2025 during an AO of -3 or below and PNA>0 were: January 29-31, 1966: Washington, DC to Boston all saw 6" or more, but the heaviest amounts were in Washington, DC and Baltimore February 5-7, 1978: Baltimore to Boston saw 6" or more, but the heaviest snows extended from Philadelphia to Boston. February 4-7, 2010: A blockbuster storm in Washington, DC to Philadelphia. No measurable snow in New York City or Boston. February 9-11, 2010: Washington, DC to New York City all saw 6" or more (10" or more) with the heaviest snows falling in Baltimore and Philadelphia.

A westerly wind burst appears to be developing. However, at present, it has not yet translated to the surface, as the SOI has remained at or above +20 for four consecutive days. The most recent ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C during the week centered around January 14th. That's almost identical to its six-week moving average of -0.68°C. So, at least through the most recent week, the La Niña has been remarkably stable. The La Niña should gradually weaken, not collapse. Weekly ENSO Region 3.4 values could rise to neutral-cool levels late this month or during February. However, the fade appears likely to be gradual. As a result, La Niña will likely continue to exert an influence on the atmosphere through at least the first week of February. The AAM- is consistent with a La Niña-type pattern. The WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern will likely be the biggest driver of North American weather conditions through the remainder of January. That pattern is typically the coldest January pattern for the eastern half or third of the U.S., along with at least southern Ontario and Quebec. One or more lows in the single digits and one or more highs in the teens is possible in New York City. Subzero cold is likely in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto. The predominantly positive PNA comes with a heightened risk, relative to climatology, of moderate or significant snowstorms for the East Coast. With the PNA likely to be mainly positive into or through at least the first week of February, it is likely that at least one or more of the following cities will see at least one 6" or above snowstorm from the remainder of January through the first week of February: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC. Warmer than normal conditions will generally prevail in the Southwest.

The RGEM had the best QPF forecast for the January 18th event while the ECMWF was a close second. The EC-AI had 0.39".

The 0.9" was the storm total through 7 pm. Some additional snow has fallen since then, so the final figure might wind up around 1.5"-2.0".

Through 7 pm, Central Park had recorded 0.9" of snow.

This evening. A steady light-to-moderate snow:

I believe the issue is that locations don't show up when one is posting and reading on the phone. I only see them on the desktop.

Whitestone, Queens.

Snow is starting to redevelop across the New York City area.