donsutherland1

Different posters.

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year.

Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.

I don't believe 2016-17 is a good analog. I only referenced it, because it had probably the strongest WWB during any La Niña in recent decades. Personally, I didn't think the 2026 WWB would measure up to that event. So far, it has fallen far short.

The HRRR has gotten the 0z cycle off to a promising start with a deeper, closer, snowier solution across NJ and eastern PA.

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow. A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development. Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +27.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Preliminary snowfall amounts: Central Park: 1.0” JFK Airport: 0.6” LaGuardia Airport: 1.4” Newark: 2.0”

QPF amounts in New York City were in line with the guidance with 0.17" being recorded. Both the NBM and ECMWF fared best. However, 0.16" fell over a 2-hour period rather than the 3-4 hour spread that had been shown on the guidance. On account of the heavier rates, temperatures dropped to the wet bulb temperature (32°) during the height of the precipitation rather than the above freezing figures that had been shown on the guidance.

Three photos from Armonk, NY:

It will probably be closer to 7-8:1, which is much better than what would have been the case had the precipitation been lighter. Outside the City, things are on course and some areas could see ratios near 10:1.

Today is a nice overperformer. NYC saw 0.09" precipitation in the past hour and that sent the temperature all the way down to the wet bulb figure of 32°.

Armonk, NY:

Snowing lightly in Scarsdale.

Graupel in Larchmont with a dusting.

The models began shifting at the 0z cycle and continued through 6z.

The 1/17 0z NBM forecast a 12z temperature of 34° for Central Park. The actual figure was 37°. With temperatures likely to run between 36°-38° when the main batch of precipitation arrives vs. the previously modeled 33°-35°, little or no snow accumulation is likely in and around New York City. The City's northern and western suburbs are in line for a coating to an inch of snow with the distant northern and western suburbs likely to see 1"-2" with some locally higher amounts. Much of the overnight guidance has shifted toward a solution of a closer coastal low. As a result, a period of accumulating snow with 1"-2" possible in and around New York City. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England appear to likely to see 2"-4" with perhaps some higher amounts. There remains some uncertainty concerning the developing storm's track and rate of development. Arctic air will begin to overspread the region on Monday and Monday night.

They should do better this time.

With the temperature now up to 36 in Central Park, only a trace of snow is the most likely outcome today. A coating is a lower probability.

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary.

The potential warmup shows up quite prominently on the Week 3 guidance:

Snow showers or a period of snow is likely tomorrow. A coating to an inch of snow is likely in and around New York City, as readings will likely be above freezing for most or all of the event. The precipitation could mix with or even change to rain in New York City. Total QPF will probably be close to 0.20". The distant northern and western suburbs could see 1"-2" of snow with some locally higher amounts due to slightly higher QPF and slightly colder temperatures. Highs will likely reach the upper 30s to near 40°. It will then turn colder following the light precipitation. Additional flurries or snow showers are possible on Sunday. A coastal storm could begin to develop off the Southeast coast and then track south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. On such a track, this developing storm could bring a period of accumulating snow to eastern Long Island into southeastern New England on Sunday into Sunday night. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development. Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on Sunday and Monday. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows well into the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +21.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.350 today. The PNA was +0.965. That's its highest figure since November 2, 2025 when it was +1.071. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (-0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It increasingly looks like there could be some more impressive hourly snowfall rates in parts of northeast PA into Orange County. That's probably where most of the amounts closer to 4" could show up. I suspect amounts closer to 2" maybe 3" are likely in Passaic and Putnam Counties.

Same in Larchmont.

The 12z guidance has moved into strong agreement concerning the QPF for tomorrow's light precipitation event with only the UKMET and ECMWF left to initialize. The NAM is a notable dry outlier for New York City (0.01"). The RRFS A, the NAM's successor model, has 0.20" QPF. With the NAM doing NAM things in the face of strong agreement among the other guidance, the idea that New York City will see little or no precipitation is discounted. Snowfall amounts in New York City will still be limited: Readings will likely be above freezing for most or all of the event. Readings will generally range from 33°-34° during the event. QPF will be on the light side (probably 0.15"-0.25"). The 15z NBM has 0.20". Most of the 12z guidance is just under 0.20". Precipitation rates in the City will likely be less than 0.05" per hour except for a brief period. Measurable snow is likely in Central Park. There's strong agreement among the individual EPS members for this outcome. All of the 12z guidance, except for the NAM, shows measurable snow. All said, snow showers or a period of snow remains likely tomorrow. A coating to an inch of snow is likely in and around New York City. The distant northern and western suburbs could see 1"-2" of snow due to slightly higher QPF, precipitation rates, and slightly colder temperatures. Sunday still bears some watching, as uncertainty is somewhat greater than it is for tomorrow. The Canadian suite (GGEM-RGEM) continue to bring a light measurable snowfall to New York City and its adjacent suburbs. The earlier runs of the ECMWF keep the snows farther east. As the GGEM is consistently the #2 rated model, it's solution is plausible. There was very little support for accumulating snowfall in New York City among the 1/16 0z EPS members. Therefore, at least for now, a miss to the east still remains more likely than not. Under that baseline scenario, there would be some accumulating snow in eastern Long Island into southeastern New England. Snow flurries and/or snow showers would be possible farther west, including in the New York City area.

My confidence that we are in the early stages of what will be a regime change to a predominantly positive PNA since the end of the PNA- regime on January 11th has increased. The latest guidance shows most of the days will be positive through at least January 26. The regime change is consistent with historic experience following 25-day or longer PNA- regimes during winter.