donsutherland1

The remainder of this week and weekend will see highs mainly in the lower 60s. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. Temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 50s and lower 50s through the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -33.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.869 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For what it's worth, it appears that the AIFS has been running warmer than the traditional ECMWF when it comes to daytime temperatures. Whether this is temporary with the new 0.1° ECMWF grid or something persistent remains to be seen. Here's an example from New York City from the 10/22 0z cycle (similar differences were also present in the 6z cycle): For comparison, the NBM high-low values for October 22 (today) were 65°-47°.

Today's highs: Bridgeport: 62° Islip: 61° New Haven: 61° New York City: 62° Newark: 65° White Plains: 64°

Depending on how well it does, I will attempt to pull other locations. Snowfall will be interesting, as 10:1 is too simple and Kuchera often leads to inflated amounts. Bufkit uses Cobb, so that's a possibility. Whether it can be integrated given what's available from the ECMWF remains to be seen. FYI, the 12z run showed a low of 41° at MPO for tomorrow (NBM is 37°).

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -42.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. It will be interesting to see how it fares in coming days.

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception. Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026: Bridgeport: 49° Islip: 50° New York City: 50° Newark: 48° White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -35.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.237 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Next time I'm at the NYBG, I'll check where the peace rose bush is. If I recall correctly, it's at the north side of the rose garden. The rose I photographed was near the center.

There may have been a mild inversion, which explains the slightly warmer readings at MPO.

Interesting information. The NYBG labeled it 'Mother of Pearl.'

Temperatures are now moderating. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -30.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.902 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sunny but chilly October day. The hummingbird migration appears to be completed.

This morning was the coolest morning so far this season. Parts of the regiono experienced freezes and frost. Lows included: AlbanY: 29° Allentown: 31° Atlantic City: 36° Binghamton: 29° Boston: 37° Bridgeport: 38° Danbury: 29° Hartford: 28° Islip: 40° New York City: 41° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 41° Poughkeepsie: 28° Providence: 31° Trenton: 36° Westhampton: 42° White Plains: 36° Temperatures will begin to moderate starting tomorrow. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -32.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.460 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

Much cooler air moved into the region late last night. As a result, the New York City area is experiencing its coolest weekend so far this fall. Tomorrow will get off to a very chilly start. Many outlying areas will see frost. There is even a chance that the temperature could dip just below 40° in Central Park. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November 2015 was then much warmer than normal and some of the long-range guidance suggests that Pacific Air could begin to dominate much of the North American continent to start November. Temperatures will moderate next week with highs reaching 60° or somewhat above Tuesday through Friday. There remains uncertainty concerning rainfall potential. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -28.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.489 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region following the passage of the cold front now approaching the region. The frontal passage could be marked by showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for some areas to experience a strong or severe thunderstorm. Following the frontal passage, the weekend will see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower 50s on Sunday. Sunday morning could see the mercury slip into the 30s for the first time this season in New York City. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November was then much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -25.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.202 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. The cold front could bring showers and thundershowers. A few thundershowers could be strong to severe. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.229 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. It will turn milder, but very likely not as warm as it was today or will be on Friday.

Cooler weather will arrive overnight. The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.336 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Islip reached 82 today. That broke the daily record of 81 from 1990.

Detroit saw the temperature soar to 87° and Indianapolis reached 88° this afternoon through 4 pm. That both cities' highest temperatures so late in the season. Some of this air will move through the East tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day for some time to come. Highs will reach the middle to upper 70s ahead of a cold front. Newark will likely reach or exceed 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to around 70°. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -18.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow through Wednesday will be warmer than normal days. Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures could peak in the middle to perhaps upper 70s on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Newark could make a run at 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday and Friday. There is increasing potential that a piece of an air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada during the weekend could move into the region for next weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.903 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great Falls saw record daily snowfall on October 10 of 6.4".