donsutherland1

Highest daily values for each month and highest monthly and seasonal averages on ERA-5:

In advance, have a very happy birthday.

Here’s a reasonable substitute: https://www.pyreweather.org I hope the shortsighted decision to stop updating the PSL site will be reversed in the future.

The idea that the bedrock collapsed leading to the glacial collapse and subsequent debris flow has gained increasing support. However, one can't automatically suggest that because the bedrock collapsed, climate change wasn't involved. The literature links a warming climate to destabilization of high mountain terrain. One recent study noted: The study found that rising temperatures are destabilizing high mountain terrain in India’s Kinnaur district and creating conditions that could trigger chains of disasters, including avalanches or landslides that spill into glacier lakes and produce destructive flooding downstream. A quick assessment by University of Colorado researchers also linked climate change observing: Satellite and drone images suggest that softening permafrost, or perennially frozen rock, ice and soil, on Langtang Lirung peak likely caused a massive bedrock failure and glacier collapse. An estimated 50 million metric tons of ice, rock and water—roughly 13 billion gallons, or about three times the capacity of Boulder Reservoir—fell 6,500 feet into the valley below, unleashing a slurry of mud and water that inundated bridges, hydropower facilities and villages along the way. According to the United States Geological Survey, the force of the initial debris flow hitting the ground was equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake... Since the 1850s, changes in high-altitude permafrost have contributed to dozens of these cascading disasters in Nepal and parts of India, in which bedrock and glaciers break off, and trigger massive flash floods and debris flows. For example, in 2012 a slurry flood in central Nepal, similar to what happened in Nepal last week, killed 79 people along the Seti River. The University of Reading also provided the following account: Researchers from the HiRisk project, which investigates cryosphere-related hazards in High Mountain Asia, suggest that longer-term glacier retreat and permafrost degradation may have contributed to slope destabilisation. The failed glacier retreated by approximately 450m between 1990 and 2020, potentially reducing the mechanical support provided by the glacier to the underlying rock slope. Permafrost degradation may have further contributed to instability. The warmer than average temperatures observed in the area this summer might have contributed to the glacier collapse too, although observations at these elevations remain limited. As a side note, this assessment also refers to "warmer than average temperatures" during the summer. That's something the maps I posted showed in contradiction to JB's cropped map. Based on the evidence and literature: 1) A climate link is highly likely, but the magnitude of the contribution from climate change is uncertain. 2) The absence of a climate link is probably close to zero Considering the literature and emerging assessments, the burden of proof rests with those such as Martz to support the argument that climate change played no role. Arguing that climate change played no role (Martz's proposition) is quite different from suggesting that the extent of contribution by climate change remains to be determined. As noted previously, there had been record heat in the region for several days prior to the catastrophe. Moreover, frost-wedging can lead to the fracturing of rocks over long periods of time, and in the warming climate of the altitude Himalayas, this form of weathering has increased in frequency.

Following the warmest August and warmest month on record in the ERA-5 dataset, September 1 started with a global mean temperature of 16.739C. That destroyed the monthly record of 16.607C from September 1, 2024. The preliminary 0.132C difference between the new mark and the old record is the largest difference between any first and second highest monthly values.

Tomorrow and Friday will see temperatures top out mainly in the lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington tomorrow and Friday. A cooler air mass will move into the region for the Labor Day weekend. In its wake, temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today.

August 2026 finished with a preliminary monthly mean temperature of 16.957C. That would shatter the August mark of 16.823C from 2024. It would also edge past July 2023's 16.953C to become the warmest month on record in the ERA-5 dataset.

Here are the temperature anomalies for the Nepal/Tibet area. If Copernicus confirms this data for August, that will raise questions about JB's maps. Perhaps, just as with the CFSv2, they have a cold bias? August 1-25, 2026: Summer (June 1-August 25):

Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm this evening or tonight. Tomorrow through Friday will see temperatures top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington tomorrow and Thursday. A cooler air mass could move into the region for the Labor Day weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -0.79 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.320 today.

For reference: The first report on the Nepal glacial collapse event: https://hirisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/RHA_NP3_RasuwaFlood-1.pdf

Given the literature, a climate change contribution appears likely. As I replied to Larry, that doesn't mean that climate change was the main or leading cause. A lot more research will be needed for that determination, as well as to estimate the magnitude of climate-related contribution. Your theoretical point is a fair argument. My conclusion is based largely on the body of literature.

Climate change is likely a contributing factor. It's too soon to know whether it was the main cause. A lot for research will be needed to pin down the main cause. The only thing that appears extremely unlikely given the literature is Martz's contention that it had no impact.

A look at Phoenix's just-concluded summer (3rd hottest on record). Summers 2020-2026 have averaged 96.4F (35.8C). Prior to 2020, the hottest summers were 2013 and 2015 with mean temperatures of 95.1F (35.1C). The extreme has become routine.

That's part of the reason I suggested that the precise role of climate change remains to be determined. Given the body of literature, there was likely a role. The least likely scenario is none. Further study will be needed to gain a better understanding. Even if there is a flash attribution study, the full picture probably won't be available for several years until research findings are published.

When one's narrative is destroyed by the facts, some accept reality. Others, however, resort to conspiracy theories.

So, he created a fairy tale on video. As I provided a link and full context to the article he referenced, there's no need to comment further on his video.

He's flailing in a desperate attempt hold onto an unsustainable explanation. First, he claimed that it was an earthquake, even hours after the USGS revealed that the glacial collapse and debris flow triggered the shaking. Then it was past earthquakes that led to destabilization. Now he spins the latest development hoping to evade any climate links, but only exposing his lack of knowledge of both climate and geological processes. As noted yesterday, frost-wedging can lead to a fracturing, disintegration, and breaking of rock over time. Water finds its way into cracks and microfissures and expands as it freezes. The ice then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks to develop and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. Finally, notice that he didn't provide a link to the actual story. He wanted to limit his audience to his opinion, depriving them of the full contents. Here's why: the story goes on to state: Mountain geographer Alton Byers of the University of Colorado Boulder has linked the disaster to climate change. He said permafrost, which has helped hold together high-altitude rock, ice, soil and glaciers for thousands of years, is weakening and becoming increasingly unstable. However, Cook and Shugar have not established a direct link between global warming and the bedrock failure. While they believe permafrost is melting and may be contributing to the destabilisaton of mountain slopes, they said further analysis is needed to determine the precise cause of the collapse. In sum, the article he references to dismiss any link to climate change actually does not rule out the role of climate change. All said, based on the full body of evidence and the insights from existing literature, climate change likely played a role, probably through a cascading set of complex processes (glacial melt, rock weathering, permafrost melt, etc.). Its precise role remains to be determined. The least likely scenario is zero impact from climate change. Further analysis will provide greater insight.

JFK had two such days and LaGuardia had five. There have been 21 years where Central Park had none in August. The most recent such year was 2023.

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of 75.8° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.3° below normal (1991-2020).

It's unfortunate. Bastardi and Martz follow one another on X and both have audiences that overlap on climate change denial, so it's not that surprising. However, Martz is not a practicing meteorologist. He has no research to his name. Bastardi, even setting aside his positions on climate change, should stay with the proper meteorological terminology. He's damaging his professional legacy, which has already been hurt by his stance regarding climate change. It is what it is.

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of a preliminary 75.8° (0.4° below normal). That was 0.6° above the prior 1981-2010 baseline. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with the temperature topping out in the middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible late tomorrow and Wednesday. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -0.79 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.654 today.

It's winter in the southern hemisphere. The latest weekly value for Region 1+2 is +4.2°C, its highest weekly value, so far.

I will do so. It should be available by around September 5th. In terms of the 400-year period, he's overgeneralizing and cherry-picking from this study, which deals with spring in the western Himalayas. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/132 He's also ignoring this information: Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658-1681 CE, 1705-1722 CE, 1753-1773 CE, 1796-1874 CE, 1900-1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600-1625 CE, 1633-1657 CE, 1682-1704 CE, 1740-1752 CE, 1779-1795 CE, 1936-1945 CE, 1956-1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century... The impact of climate change in the central Himalayan region of Nepal is more pronounced compared to other regions at similar latitudes... and hence Nepal is experiencing higher rates of temperature increase than the global average.... However, the observed warming rates show significant spatial variability, with a more pronounced warming trend in higher altitudes... Also, with regard to an added explanation that the rock beneath the glacier collapsed, some arguments are already being made that this disproves a climate link. Instead, it reveals the complexity of the processes. Frost-wedging from repeated freezes and thawing contribute to such developments. The water that finds its way into even microfissures expands as it freezes. It then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. For what it's worth, the New York Botanical Garden has a large glacial erratic called the "Split Rock." The rock ultimately split from repeated freeze-thawing cycles. Here's a photo of it from last winter. In short, frost-wedging might well have increased the fragility of the rock beneath the glacier leading to its fracturing.

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 1.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.2

In a few days, the August monthly anomaly will also be available on Copernicus. Even if the summer average were cooler than normal, it's worth pointing out that the toll taken on glaciers in a warming climate is cumulative. Glaciers don't reset automatically when things turn cooler. That's a point Bastardi either doesn't understand or chooses to ignore.