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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be significant. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  2. donsutherland1
    It's uncertain. "Internal climate variability" could concern long-period ocean circulation. Seismic/volcanic activity aren't the only explanation for internal variability. I welcome additional research. Overall, I suspect that anthropogenic and natural variables are contributing, though the anthropogenic one is probably growing relative to the impact of natural variables due to increasing anthropogenic forcing.
  3. donsutherland1
    Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. In the long-range, there has been some shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.040 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  4. donsutherland1
    Somewhat cooler weather will conclude the week. Overall, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible Saturday night as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -2.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.007 today.
  5. donsutherland1
    A cold front moved across the region this morning bringing some scattered showers. Tomorrow will be especially cool with morning lows in the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in many suburban areas. The coldest spots could experience a freeze. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s despite partly sunny skies. It will then turn springlike early next week with readings reaching the 70s on Monday through Wednesday. Parts of the region, especially interior sections of New Jersey, could reach 80° or above on Tuesday. However the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average somewhat below normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.418 today.
  6. donsutherland1
    May has opened with cooler than normal conditions. New York City saw the temperature fall to 46° this morning. Some areas saw readings in the 30s. Danbury reached 34° and Poughkeepsie saw the temperature fall to 35°. A shower is possible tomorrow as cooler air continues to move into the region. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s to near 60° despite partly sunny skies. It could turn more springlike early next week with readings reaching the lower 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. However the first 7-10 days of May will likely see temperatures average below normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -2.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.187 today.
  7. donsutherland1
    Final numbers for April 2026: Mean Temperature: 55.0° (1.3° above normal).
  8. donsutherland1
    April is finishing with a mean temperature of 55.0° (1.3° above normal/2.0° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline). May will open with cooler than normal conditions. A shower is possible on Saturday as cooler air moves into the region. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s to near 60° despite partly sunny skies. It could turn more springlike early next week with readings reaching the lower 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. However the first 7-10 days of May will likely see temperatures average below normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -10.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.224 today.
  9. donsutherland1
    May DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 +0.5 +0.7 +2.5
  10. donsutherland1
    It will be rainy tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s despite partly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.224 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  11. donsutherland1
    This is the first I heard about it. Thanks for sharing this update.
  12. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will see temperatures reach the lower 60s. Another shot of rain will arrive. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely tomorrow into Thursday. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -15.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  13. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures reach the lower and middle 60s, with tomorrow being the warmer day. However, another shot of rain followed by somewhat cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -19.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.189 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  14. donsutherland1
    The recent rain delivered 0.50"-1.50" of rain to the region, along with some locally higher figures. Rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.89" Islip: 1.31" New Haven: 0.74" New York City-Central Park: 1.39" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.49" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.45" Newark: 1.64" Philadelphia: 0.51" White Plains: 1.07" Tomorrow through Wednesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s. However, another shot of rain followed by cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  15. donsutherland1
    With OpenAI releasing Images 2.0, I decided to test it to make a poster depicting Winter 2025-2026. I used four of my photos and provided some content. I then prompted it to create a poster based on the images and textual content. Here's what it came up with: I also did the same with five photos I took at the New York Botanical Garden and The Cloisters. I asked for a highly creative arrangement where the tulip photos would comprise a tulip. All said, Image 2.0 is far more advanced than the preceding version.
  16. donsutherland1
    Additional rain and showers are likely tonight and tomorrow. A storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track. It will also remain unseasonably cool with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s to end the weekend. Monday and Tuesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s. However, another shot of rain and cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -28.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.884 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  17. donsutherland1
    Yes, things have trended cooler. The onset of late-season blocking has played an important role.
  18. donsutherland1
    A cool and wet weekend lies ahead. Highs will reach only the lower 50s tomorrow and the middle and upper 50s on Sunday. Periods of rain are likely on tomorrow into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -10.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.231 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  19. donsutherland1
    Following today's balmy temperatures, it will turn cooler tomorrow with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the lower 50s on Saturday and middle and upper 50s on Sunday. Periods of rain are likely on Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -2.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.985 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  20. donsutherland1
    It will turn briefly springlike tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, it will turn cooler on Friday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.013 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  21. donsutherland1
    Near record and record cold covered the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 24° (old record: 28°, 1925, 1956, and 2018) Hartford: 27° (tied record set in 1961) Poughkeepsie: 24° (old record: 26°, 2018) Scranton: 24° (old record: 26°, 1925) Westhampton: 22° (old record: 23°, 2014) White Plains: 27° (old record: 29°, 1981) The last time White Plains recorded a low in the 20s on or after April 21st was April 23, 1982. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder with highs returning to the upper 50s. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No cold shots comparable to the current one are likely for the remainder of spring. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.507 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  22. donsutherland1
    White Plains saw the temperature fall below 30F (-1.1C) this morning. The last time it got at least as cold this late in the season was April 23, 1982 when the low was 26F (-3.3C). The low of 28F (-2.2C) broke the daily record of 29F (-1.7C) from 1981.
  23. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures. Lows will fall into the middle or upper 30s in New York City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. Highs will reach the middle 50s. Wednesday will be somewhat milder. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  24. donsutherland1
    I agree.
  25. donsutherland1
    Yes. I suspect that we’ll see an acceleration in the ENSO warming over the next few weeks.
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