donsutherland1

Detroit saw the temperature soar to 87° and Indianapolis reached 88° this afternoon through 4 pm. That both cities' highest temperatures so late in the season. Some of this air will move through the East tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day for some time to come. Highs will reach the middle to upper 70s ahead of a cold front. Newark will likely reach or exceed 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to around 70°. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -18.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow through Wednesday will be warmer than normal days. Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures could peak in the middle to perhaps upper 70s on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Newark could make a run at 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday and Friday. There is increasing potential that a piece of an air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada during the weekend could move into the region for next weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.903 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great Falls saw record daily snowfall on October 10 of 6.4".

Rain will continue into early tomorrow at varying intensities. Tomorrow through Wednesday will be warmer than normal days. Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures could peak in the middle 70s on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Newark could make a run at 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday and Friday. There is increasing potential that a piece of an air mass that set a record low temperature at Old Crow, YT of 3° yesterday could move into the region for next weekend. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest tempertures so far this season. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -9.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.575 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.1° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Mild weather continues. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the middle 60s. The first half of next week will also feature highs in the middle and upper 60s. Cooler weather will likely arrive for the second half of next week. Rain and showers are likely tomorrow into Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. Overall, the region will likely see 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -0.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.600 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.1° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Mild weather prevails. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the middle 60s. The first half of next week will also feature highs in the lower and middle 60s. The weather will be mainly dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -11.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Milder weather has now returned to the region. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. The week will also be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -22.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.722 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Oklahoma also destroyed its old record. September 2026: 82.8° (old record: 80.1°, 1931). Virtually all of the state exceeded its prior monthly record.

The September statewide data for Texas is now in. The heat of September 2026 made a mockery of the State's prior monthly record. September 2026 finished with a statewide mean temperature of 84.1°. 2023, the prior record, was left in the distant dust with a relatively cool 81.8°. September 2019 was further back in third with a mean temperature of 81.5°.

Milder weather will return to the region starting tomorrow. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.83 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

New York City will see the temperature again dip below 50° tonight. Lows should fall to the middle and upper 40s in New York City early tomorrow morning. Some distant suburbs could again see lows bottom out in the 30s with some scattered frost. Thursday and Friday will be milder days with the mercury returning to the lower 70s across much of the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.51 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.195 today.

The coolest air so far this fall will move into the region tonight. As a result, New York City could see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season tomorrow morning. Lows should fall to the middle and upper 40s in New York City on Wednesday morning. Some distant suburbs could see lows bottom out in the 30s. Thursday and Friday will be milder days with the mercury returning to the lower 70s across much of the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -21.34 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.033 today.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. The mild weather will be short-lived, as much cooler air will poor into the region afterward. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -30.49 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.264 today.

Anchorage also received 0.1" snow on October 1. That was its first measurable snowfall on record of October 1.

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.43 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.803 today.

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.

The temperature soared into the lower 80s across the New York City area. Central Park reached 83° and Newark reached 87°. In New England, Manchester, NH reached 85°, which broke the daily record of 84° from 2002. Progressively cooler weather now lies ahead. It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with highs reaching mainly the lower 70s. Sunday will be even cooler with temperatures topping out in the middle and upper 60s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today.

I can't say that it will be an analog. But some strong El Niños have been a "one-storm" winter. Even 1997-98, but its storm was 5.0". Some have had no major storms in the region e.g., 1972-73, which also had a pre-October 1 measurable snowfall in Anchorage.

Anchorage had its first measurable snowfall on record for October 1st. The last time Anchorage received a measurable snowfall on or before October 1st was September 29, 2015.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today.

In part due to moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, Lincoln, NE set an all-time daily precipitation record yesterday with 6.15" of rain. The old record had stood for more than a century.

Through 2018, just only 2005 (5th hottest at the time) and 2015 (9th hottest at the time) ranked among Texas' ten hottest Septembers on record. The monthly mark of 80.7° from 1911 stood at the top, challenged only by 1931 (80.5°). All other years were more than 0.5° or more cooler. Then, in 2019, Texas recorded a monthly average temperature of 81.5°. Four years later, that mark was eclipsed with an 81.8° average. Preliminary data suggests that 2026 smashed the 2023 record, potentially by more than 1°. Preliminary Texas September Anomalies: Numerous cities established monthly records in Texas. Some stations set new records by large margins. Brownsville registered its third warmest month on record, less than 0.1° cooler than August 2026, which ranked second. McAllen, powered by a record stretch of 100° days, which reached 70 days on September 30th, experienced its second warmest month on record. Brownsville rewrote large parts of its September record book. It even tied its all-time record high minimum temperature of 85° on September 13th and then again on September 30th. Prior to 2026, Brownsville's latest 85° minimum temperature occurred on August 6, 1896. 2026 also became the first year with two such low temperatures. Brownsville also recorded its hottest two-month and three-month periods on record: 2-Month: August-September 2026: 89.8° (old record: July-August 2023: 89.4°) 3- Month: July-September 2026: 89.3° (old record: July-September 2023: 89.1°)

September finished with a monthly mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.8° below normal (1991-2020). The September 25-28 nor'easter that brought 3.10" of rainfall to Central Park was arguably the month's highlight event.

September is finishing with a mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City. That is 0.8° below normal (0.4° above the older 1981-2010 baseline). Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

October DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3.3 2.1 3.1