donsutherland1

New York City finished May with a mean temperature of 63.2°. That is exactly normal.

The day started off with near record low temperatures and even some record lows in parts of the region. Lows included: Allentown: 41° Atlantic City: 43° Bridgeport: 45° Danbury: 37° Islip: 43° New Haven: 43° New York City-Central Park: 50° New York City-JFK Airport: 48° (tied record set in 1966 and tied in 1977 and 2023) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 54° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 52° Poughkeepsie: 37° Westhampton: 31° (old record: 34°, 2008) White Plains: 42° Overall, New York City finished May with a monthly mean temperature of 63.2°, which is the normal 1991-2020 value. That was 0.8° warmer than the earlier 1981-2010 baseline. The first week of June will likely see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near normal. However much warmer weather could arrive on Friday and then continue through the first weekend of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -14.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.251 today.

The temperature surged into the lower 70s before clouds rolled in. Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.2 0.5 0.1 2.4 2.2 1.5 103 99 99 100 98 105 100 117 94

That occurred before 1 am EDT, so it was counted as yesterday's low. Records are based on standard time.

JFK Airport reached 48° this morning. That tied the daily record set in 1966 and tied in 1977 and 2023.

It will turn warmer tomorrow after a chilly start where New York City will start with lows in the lower 50s and many outlying areas will start in the 40s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s. The first week of June will likely see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near normal. However very warm weather could arrive on Friday and then continue into the first weekend of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -26.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.174 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool with highs only in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s on Sunday. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -33.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will be briefly warmer with highs in the middle and upper 70s. Saturday will be unseasonably cool with highs only in the middle and upper 60s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s on Sunday. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -23.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.041 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of blazing heat in France.

Some exceptional temperatures are being reached in parts of France today. National highs of 38.0°C or above in May: Villefranche: 40.0°C (104.0°F), May 29, 1947 Fitou: 38.4°C (101.1°F), May 28, 2026 (through 1 pm) Argeliers: 38.1°C (100.6°F), May 28, 2026 (through 1 pm) Lacanau: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 19, 1958 Pissos: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 27, 2005 Salindres: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 29, 1947

It will then turn somewhat cooler for tomorrow through the weekend. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -6.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.625 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of extraordinary heat in France. So far, almost half of all primary and secondary stations in France have set new May monthly record high temperatures during the ongoing heatwave.

Tomorrow will see the temperature rise into the lower 80s across the region. It will then turn somewhat cooler for Thursday through the remainder of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.359 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of insane climate change-driven heat in France. Nearly 400 monthly records were broken. 122 locations hit 35.0C (95.0F) or above while 27 reached 36C (96.8F) or above.

The models caught onto the European heatwave about five days before the event. The lead time wasn't great this time around.

A rose at the New York Botanical Garden:

Warmer temperatures lie ahead. The temperature will rise to above normal levels for tomorrow through Thursday. Exceptional heat is unlikely. It will turn somewhat cooler to end the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -25.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.581 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The final numbers from today's historic heat in France:

It took awhile, but by last Tuesday, the models started to present a strong heat signal.

The Met Office has now published an account of today's historic May heat. That account can be found at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/provisional-spring-daily-temperature-record-as-heatwave-continues In terms of the impact of climate change, the Met Office explains: A climate attribution study published last summer by Met Office scientists found that the chances of surpassing the May temperature record have been increasing as our climate changes as a consequence of human greenhouse gas emissions. The study found that breaking the 32.8°C May record is around three times more likely now in our current climate than it would have been in a natural climate not impacted by greenhouse gas emissions. What was around a 1-in-100 year event is now around a 1-in-33 year event.

Today, London's Kew Gardens saw the temperature soar to 34.8°C (95°F). That demolished the UK's national May record of 32.8°C (91F) that had stood since 1944. The ongoing extreme heat was made much more likely by anthropogenic climate change. Across the British Channel, France saw more than 300 May monthly records set with 62 locations having reaching 95°F (35.0°C) or above. Final numbers from France will be available in a few hours.

A historic May heatwave is scorching parts of Europe, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Today, France saw 105 stations set new monthly records with 25 of those stations setting monthly records that had been set on Friday or yesterday. Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely be hotter. The UKs national May temperature record could be challenged or broken tomorrow and again on Tuesday. The extreme heat has been made more likely by climate change. Europe is currently experiencing a rate of warming that is twice the rate of the global average. From Climate Central's Climate Shift Index:

Yes. It is consistent with a rapidly strengthening El Niño. New weekly numbers come out tomorrow.

Through 4 pm, storm total rainfall totals across the region include: Atlantic City: 0.91" Binghamton: 0.86" Bridgeport: 1.44" Islip: 1.20" New Haven: 1.38" New York City-Central Park: 1.83" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.56" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.65" Newark: 1.50" Philadelphia: 1.52" White Plains: 1.38" Clouds will break tomorrow. As a result, the temperature will likely return to the lower 70s. Temperatures could then rise to above normal levels for Tuesday through Thursday. It will turn somewhat cooler to end the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -31.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.772 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.