donsutherland1

For what it's worth, it appears that global temperatures explain a larger share of Phoenix's (and perhaps the Southwest's) annual temperature variance than they do for such cities as New York.

Here's the Top 30 data for through March 1st. The ranking is higher, as I excluded years with 25 or more missing days. Their inclusion previously skewed some of the results. I also used average of days (not months) when calculating the DJF mean temperature. That also led to minor adjustments from the prior list e.g., 1854-55 had a mean temperature of 29.1° vs. 29.0° (when all months were weighted equally). Rank Winter DJF Temp Snow Score 1 1872-1873 25.7 62.5 -2.225 2 1867-1868 25.0 53.3 -2.027 3 1904-1905 25.4 49.8 -1.856 4 1960-1961 30.6 69.5 -1.752 5 1917-1918 24.9 42.3 -1.684 6 1855-1856 26.4 46.8 -1.616 7 1947-1948 28.9 57.6 -1.609 8 1919-1920 26.7 45.9 -1.544 9 1977-1978 28.7 52.9 -1.485 10 1874-1875 25.6 38.9 -1.474 11 1864-1865 27.9 49.0 -1.473 12 1995-1996 31.6 62.8 -1.392 13 2013-2014 31.3 60.5 -1.360 14 1922-1923 28.9 48.9 -1.327 15 2010-2011 32.8 66.0 -1.324 16 1903-1904 24.7 29.9 -1.311 17 1906-1907 28.9 46.9 -1.262 18 1993-1994 31.0 55.8 -1.250 19 1853-1854 30.7 53.0 -1.203 20 1851-1852 28.0 41.0 -1.199 21 2025-2026 31.7 54.5 -1.108 22 1866-1867 29.8 46.0 -1.104 23 1854-1855 29.1 42.5 -1.090 24 1933-1934 28.0 37.0 -1.069 25 1876-1877 27.9 35.4 -1.032 26 1859-1860 29.4 41.4 -1.012 27 1856-1857 27.9 34.5 -1.002 28 2002-2003 30.7 44.8 -0.936 29 1898-1899 29.2 36.5 -0.881 30 1870-1871 29.6 37.1 -0.844

Thanks. I wasn't aware of it either.

With an AO+ likely to prevail through at least mid-March, there seems to be no mechanism that could drive the cold from Canada into the New York City area. Some fleeting cool shots are possible, but a sustained very cold regime appears unlikely. That means prospects for a 50.0" or above snow season at Central Park will decrease markedly. The percentage of cases with sufficient snowfall (6.6") to raise the seasonal total to 50.0" or above are below: On or after 3/15: 10.8% On or after 3/20: 6.3% On or after 3/25: 2.5% No meaningful snowfall is likely through at least March 15th.

It's 21st on the current final season ratings (through 2024-2025).

Here it is through February 28th:

Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. After an early morning low in the upper teens or lower 20s, New York City will see the temperature out near freezing. Clouds will increase tomorrow night and cloud cover could impede viewing of the lunar eclipse near sunrise Tuesday. Periods of mixed precipitation giving way to periods of rain is likely later Tuesday and Tuesday night. The temperature will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. A sustained warming trend will commence on Wednesday. The second week of March could feature springlike readings. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +17.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.211 today.

It’s not final, as snow season isn’t finished. I will post it shortly.

There’s a similar situation in NYC: JFK reported 8” snow cover while Central Park had just 1”.

Light snow and thin coatings in Armonk, NY:

Final Winter 2025-2026 Chart:

February 2026 in New York City:

February 2026 is finishing with a mean temperature of 31.5°, which is 4.4° below normal (1991-2020 baseline). It would also be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 baseline. Winter 2025-2026 is finishing with a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That is the coldest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 is only the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Winter 2025-2026 is just the third winter with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The others are 1960-1961 and 1977-1978. Colder air will return for tomorrow through Tuesday. A light snowfall with coatings in places, especialy north and west of New York City, is possible tomorrow. Monday could see the temperature top out near or even below freezing in New York City after starting in the upper teens. After mid-week, a warming trend will commence. The second week of March could feature springlike readings. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +17.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.236 today.

Phoenix experienced its warmest February on record with a monthly mean temperature of 67.7°. That broke the prior record of 66.0°, which was set in 1991 and tied just last year. Powered by the warmest December and February on record, Phoenix experienced its warmest winter on record, by far. Its winter mean temperature of 63.9° was similar to a typical winter in Melbourne, FL. Its seasonal mean temperature also exceeded the figure from March-May 1917. Table 6: Winter and Spring Mean Temperatures:

It was an elite winter in the NYC area. Winter season statistics are below:

He might be referring to March 19, 1992 with 6.2”

It was a fantastic winter in New York City. I'm not sure why some find the need to make exaggerated claims like the one you cited. Perhaps they know that most in the general public don't have access to the data, are not familiar with the historic record, and/or are not inclined to verify the claims. If one is using only the December 1-February 28 timeframe both winters 1977-78 and 1993-94 were somewhat colder and snowier than winter 2025-26. Here's how Winter 2025-2026 actually stacked up against all past winters (December-February periods):

It would depend on what variables one uses to rank the winters. Without doubt, it is one of the great winters of the past 50 years.

An elite winter season is concluding today. Among other things, Winter 2025-26 will be the coldest winter since Winter 2014-15. A snapshot for New York City is below.

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.3 3.3 3.5 4.7 4.5 4.3 3.6 3.0 0.6

It will turn briefly milder tomorrow to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°. Colder air will return for Sunday through Tuesday. Monday could see the temperature top out near or even below freezing in New York City. After mid-week, a warming trend will commence. The second week of March could feature springlike readings. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on account of a chilly onshore flow. Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +13.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.344 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. February 2026 will likely be the coldest La Niña February since February 1934. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

It has been a snowy winter in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Already, Islip, JFK Airport, and Providence have clinched top 10 seasonal snowfall figures.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that spring begins for good during the week of March 9-16. The weeklies suggest the following teleconnection pattern during the second half of March: WPO-/ EPO+/ AO+/ PNA-. Using NYC as an example for the Northeast, the mean March 16-31, 1980-2025 temperature for such teleconnections is 46.6°. For all other cases, it is 45.3°. So, one isn't exactly looking at a cold pattern with those forecast teleconnections. Moreover, the ECMWF weeklies don't show a cold pattern. Fortunately, teleconnection forecasts are not skillful beyond two weeks. If one is looking for a genuinely colder pattern to develop, an AO- would offer perhaps the strongest possibility. Even leaving the other teleconnections as they are currently forecast (WPO-/EPO+/PNA-) but combining them with an AO- , the March 16-31, 1980-2025 mean temperature was 42.9°.

My position is as follows: ...any structural decline in seasonal snowfall from an overall warming of winters probably won't be evident until the mid-2030s due to stochastic variability. Moreover, there will continue to be some big snowstorms (even if the recent big snowfall drought skews perceptions) and snowy winters. Winters can still feature cold. December 2025 is an example, as it's on course to be the coldest December in 15 years in NYC. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62460-snow-potential-dec-26-27/?do=findComment&comment=7876310 Washington, DC with its warmer climate than NYC provides a classic example with Winter 2009-10. Norfolk, Richmond, and Washington, DC have all see a number of significant and major snowstorms since 2010 with climates that are warmer than New York City's will be even a decade or more in the future.