donsutherland1

At the depths on this chart (< 2000 meters) they are very accurate. At greater depths a different float is used due to the limitations of the standard float. Here’s the description from the standard ARGO float description: The temperatures in the Argo profiles are accurate to ± 0.002°C and pressures are accurate to ± 2.4dbar. https://argo.ucsd.edu/faq/

Yes. Errors increase at greater depths. This data is reliable.

More social media disinformation: The reality: Source of subsurface anomalies: CyclonicWx.com. I circled the depths and added the label to show what is occurring. were volcanoes responsible, SSTAs would be increasing at depth.

The weekend will end on a very mild note. Temperatures will reach upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday. A cold front will move across the region tomorrow night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely. Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +4.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.575 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This morning is as good as it gets in October. The sun is bright and temperatures are pleasant.

I put it here given the timeframe involved. If you feel it would be better in the October thread, please feel free to move it.

Yes. That's correct. During Winter 2012-2013, most of the Mid-Atlantic Region saw below normal snowfall. But southern New England saw much above normal snowfall, highlighted by a massive snowstorm during February 8-9, 2013. The snowstorm grazed parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic (Newark, Islip, New York City). Select seasonal amounts follow: Mid-Atlantic: Baltimore: 8.0" Philadelphia: 8.3" Washington, DC: 3.1" Northern Mid-Atlantic: Islip: 46.9" New York City: 26.1" Newark: 29.5" Southern New England: Boston: 63.4" Bridgeport: 64.3" Hartford: 56.9" Providence: 46.3" Here are the PNS reports for the February 8-9, 2013 Snowstorm: 818 NOUS41 KOKX 092015 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-100755- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 315 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC THANK YOU TO ALL...FOR THE REPORTS DURING THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE NWS APPRECIATES THE HUNDREDS OF REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN SENT IN. IF YOUR REPORT IS NOT INCLUDED BELOW...BE ASSURED THAT IT WAS RECEIVED AND IS BEING USED BY THE NWS METEOROLOGISTS. ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER SHELTON 26.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WESTON 26.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WESTPORT 24.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC GREENWICH 22.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DARIEN 22.1 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORWALK 22.0 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROXBURY 22.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW CANAAN 22.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT DANBURY 21.5 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT STAMFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEWTOWN 17.1 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BETHEL 16.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEFIELD 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... EAST HADDAM 35.5 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OLD SAYBROOK 30.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT CLINTON 27.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HADDAM 27.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT HIGGANUM 24.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO CROMWELL 23.0 700 AM 2/09 AMATEUR RADIO MIDDLETOWN 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... HAMDEN 40.0 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC MILFORD 38.0 615 AM 2/09 PUBLIC CLINTONVILLE 37.0 1040 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER OXFORD 36.2 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH BRANFORD 36.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MERIDEN 36.0 200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC YALESVILLE 35.0 909 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WALLINGFORD 35.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW HAVEN 34.3 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT WEST HAVEN 34.0 1040 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTHFORD 33.5 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WOLCOTT 33.0 457 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER EAST HAVEN 33.0 1005 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GUILFORD 33.0 1113 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA NORTH GUILFORD 32.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WATERBURY 32.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NAUGATUCK 30.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTH HAVEN 29.0 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRANFORD 28.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SOUTHBURY 26.3 1030 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH BRANDFORD 24.0 1230 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BEACON FALLS 21.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... COLCHESTER 31.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT GILMAN 27.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORWICH 25.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT LISBON 24.0 1158 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GALES FERRY 24.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER OLD LYME 23.6 1200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC LEDYARD CENTER 22.0 1045 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MYSTIC SEAPORT 21.0 1100 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE STONINGTON 15.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... RIVERVALE 16.8 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WOODCLIFF LAKE 16.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BERGENFIELD 15.5 1015 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER FRANKLIN LAKES 15.0 400 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HILLSDALE 14.0 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC PARAMUS 14.0 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY PARK RIDGE 14.0 855 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEWOOD 13.5 717 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIVER VALE 13.5 130 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ALLENDALE 13.1 423 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OAKLAND 13.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MAHWAH 12.5 1115 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW MILFORD 11.8 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC EAST RUTHERFORD 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY LODI 11.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DUMONT 11.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER SADDLE BROOK 10.0 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CRESSKILL 10.0 150 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DEMAREST 8.0 1010 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...ESSEX COUNTY... VERONA 14.0 240 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTH CALDWELL 13.5 800 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MILLBURN 12.0 240 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROSELAND 12.0 230 AM 2/09 PUBLIC CEDAR GROVE 11.8 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WEST ORANGE 10.2 320 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BLOOMFIELD 10.1 325 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MAPLEWOOD 10.1 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEWARK AIRPORT 10.0 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER BELLEVILLE 9.6 1130 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...HUDSON COUNTY... NORTH BERGEN 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SECAUCUS 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY JERSEY CITY 11.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY HOBOKEN 10.6 755 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HARRISON 9.0 355 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER KEARNY 8.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BAYONNE 8.0 1130 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER ...PASSAIC COUNTY... WEST MILFORD 13.2 215 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BLOOMINGDALE 12.8 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WAYNE 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HAWTHORNE 12.4 530 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CLIFTON 12.0 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY POMPTON LAKES 11.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RINGWOOD 10.5 1130 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HASKELL 10.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...UNION COUNTY... ROSELLE 14.2 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ELIZABETH 12.5 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROSELLE PARK 12.0 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SCOTCH PLAINS 12.0 202 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WESTFIELD 11.0 715 AM 2/09 PUBLIC UNION 10.5 600 AM 2/09 NJ TPK AUTHORITY NEW PROVIDENCE 7.5 225 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW YORK ...BRONX COUNTY... FIELDSTON 15.0 515 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RIVERDALE 13.1 720 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BEDFORD PARK 12.3 400 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY... SHEEPSHEAD BAY 9.0 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MIDWOOD 8.3 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MARINE PARK 7.0 915 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NASSAU COUNTY... EAST NORWICH 18.0 1025 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MASSAPEQUA PARK 18.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER PLAINVIEW 18.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER SYOSSET 17.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BAYVILLE 16.3 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC JERICHO 15.5 1100 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GLEN COVE 15.0 1100 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MASSAPEQUA 15.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WOODMERE 13.8 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SEAFORD 13.8 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CARLE PLACE 13.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ELMONT 12.4 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROCKVILLE CENTRE 12.3 500 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER LEVITTOWN 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HEMPSTEAD 12.0 928 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER ALBERTSON 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC WANTAGH 11.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BELLMORE 11.0 750 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MALVERNE 10.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER LONG BEACH 10.0 305 AM 2/09 PUBLIC FLORAL PARK 10.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH MERRICK 10.0 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BALDWIN HARBOR 9.5 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH VALLEY STREAM 9.0 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER LIDO BEACH 8.5 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW HYDE PARK 8.0 928 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER ...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 11.4 700 AM 2/09 CENTRAL PARK ZOO UPPER WEST SIDE 10.9 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HAMILTON HOUSES 9.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GREENWICH VILLAGE 7.5 207 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...ORANGE COUNTY... CORNWALL ON HUDSON 15.5 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW WINDSOR 14.2 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARRIMAN 14.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEWBURGH 14.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CORNWALL LANDING 14.0 1020 AM 2/09 PUBLIC GOSHEN 13.9 840 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROCK TAVERN 13.0 820 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CHESTER 12.9 916 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HAMPTONBURGH 12.8 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WARWICK 12.0 715 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER SOUTH BLOOMING GROVE 12.0 1054 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MIDDLETOWN 12.0 717 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MONROE 12.0 1200 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER FLORIDA 10.8 925 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OTISVILLE 10.1 1147 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...PUTNAM COUNTY... PUTNAM VALLEY 12.3 930 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MAHOPAC 12.0 800 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER KENT CLIFFS 11.0 200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...QUEENS COUNTY... MIDDLE VILLAGE 15.0 810 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DOUGLASTON 12.8 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC ASTORIA 12.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NYC/LA GUARDIA 12.1 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER COLLEGE POINT 11.4 1100 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE FLUSHING 11.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BAYSIDE 11.0 615 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER FOREST HILLS 10.7 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RICHMOND HILL 9.5 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HOWARD BEACH 9.0 430 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER REGO PARK 8.5 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER KEW GARDENS 8.5 200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC FRESH MEADOWS 8.2 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NYC/JFK AIRPORT 6.4 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER ...RICHMOND COUNTY... SUNNYSIDE 12.4 815 AM 2/09 PUBLIC GREAT KILLS 12.3 830 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ELTINGVILLE 10.2 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DONGAN HILLS 8.0 330 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BAY TERRACE 5.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NEW HEMPSTEAD 13.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW CITY 12.9 830 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER SUFFERN 12.5 905 AM 2/09 PUBLIC VALLEY COTTAGE 12.0 1000 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER SLOATSBURG 9.5 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NYACK 9.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... MEDFORD 33.5 1015 AM 2/09 PUBLIC UPTON 30.9 900 AM 2/09 NWS OFFICE CENTRAL ISLIP 30.7 815 AM 2/09 PUBLIC COMMACK 29.1 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HUNTINGTON 29.0 630 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER EAST SETAUKET 28.5 641 AM 2/09 PUBLIC YAPHANK 28.1 1140 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STONY BROOK 28.0 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ISLIP AIRPORT 27.8 700 AM 2/09 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER ST. JAMES 27.5 135 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MASTIC 27.5 1125 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 27.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HOLBROOK 26.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 26.0 945 AM 2/09 NWS COOP SHOREHAM 26.0 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER MOUNT SINAI 26.0 600 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER PORT JEFFERSON 25.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SOUND BEACH 24.2 715 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE SETAUKET 24.0 1200 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTH BABYLON 24.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC LAKE RONKONKOMA 23.0 1010 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER CENTERPORT 21.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROCKY POINT 21.0 1045 AM 2/09 PUBLIC LINDENHURST 20.5 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER DEER PARK 20.0 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTH PATCHOGUE 20.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RONKONKOMA 19.5 115 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RIVERHEAD 19.4 945 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE EAST NORTHPORT 19.0 700 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BAY SHORE 18.0 1000 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE MELVILLE 17.5 1155 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER EASTPORT 16.0 900 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE SAYVILLE 16.0 700 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE JAMESPORT 14.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MATTITUCK 12.9 1120 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER SOUTHAMPTON 12.5 1208 PM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEHAMPTON 12.0 845 AM 2/09 NWS COOP SHIRLEY 10.3 835 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... PORT CHESTER 23.3 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC YONKERS 23.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARDSLEY 23.0 740 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SCARSDALE 22.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC EASTCHESTER 22.5 700 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA MAMARONECK 22.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC LARCHMONT 22.0 705 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARTSDALE 21.5 820 AM 2/09 VILLAGE EMPLOYEE DOBBS FERRY 21.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BRONXVILLE 21.3 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 21.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WHITE PLAINS 21.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RYE 20.0 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARMONK 20.0 816 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT VERNON 17.2 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SOMERS 16.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT KISCO 14.0 710 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SLEEPY HOLLOW 12.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARRISON 12.0 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MILLWOOD 11.6 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OSSINING 11.5 405 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER 379 NOUS41 KBOX 092109 PNSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-100909- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 409 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...HARTFORD COUNTY... GLASTONBURY 33.5 326 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC MANCHESTER 32.0 1030 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WEATOGUE 31.0 1012 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO FARMINGTON 29.0 918 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO GRANBY 29.0 938 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE NEWINGTON 28.0 1240 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC BURLINGTON 27.5 902 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SE ENFIELD 27.2 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 1 WSW WETHERSFIELD 27.0 900 AM 2/09 COCORAHS HARTFORD 27.0 929 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO CANTON 26.0 956 AM 2/09 NONE NORTH GRANBY 25.0 610 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER AVON 25.0 239 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 1 ENE NORTH GRANBY 25.0 900 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WEST HARTFORD 24.5 218 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 3 NNW WEST HARTFORD 24.3 730 AM 2/09 COCORAHS BRISTOL 24.0 908 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SIMSBURY 24.0 618 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO COLLINSVILLE 23.5 806 AM 2/09 NONE WINDSOR 23.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS SOUTH WINDSOR 23.0 1250 PM 2/09 NONE WINDSOR LOCKS 22.8 108 PM 2/09 BDL AIRPORT NNW UNIONVILLE 22.3 705 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ASHFORD 22.0 931 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO EAST HARTFORD 20.0 621 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ENFIELD 20.0 620 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...TOLLAND COUNTY... COVENTRY 32.5 1143 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER STAFFORDVILLE 31.4 100 PM 2/09 NWS COOP TOLLAND 30.5 914 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC STAFFORD SPRINGS 26.1 1237 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SOMERS 25.5 646 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER VERNON 25.0 402 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...WINDHAM COUNTY... EAST KILLINGLY 26.0 1105 AM 2/09 NONE WOODSTOCK 26.0 1026 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER THOMPSON 25.5 1008 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HAMPTON 25.0 829 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER ASHFORD 24.0 828 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC 1 SW EAST KILLINGLY 23.1 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS DANIELSON 22.5 933 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO POMFRET CENTER 22.0 1114 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MASSACHUSETTS ...BARNSTABLE COUNTY... EAST SANDWICH 14.8 1244 PM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE SOUTH SAGAMORE 11.0 609 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO EAST FALMOUTH 10.0 823 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO BARNSTABLE 9.5 411 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH YARMOUTH 8.0 622 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO CENTERVILLE 6.0 558 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...BRISTOL COUNTY... FALL RIVER 24.0 1122 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH EASTON 23.0 240 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO TAUNTON 22.7 100 PM 2/09 NWS OFFICE 2 NNE NORTON 22.5 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS NORTON 22.5 721 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH ATTLEBORO 22.0 314 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO ACUSHNET 21.5 259 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH EASTON 21.0 310 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC NORTH ATTLEBORO 20.0 1130 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER REHOBOTH 18.2 1018 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE SOMERSET 17.5 210 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO NEW BEDFORD 16.0 1208 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC SOUTH DARTMOUTH 14.0 304 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 2 WSW SWANSEA 14.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS FAIRHAVEN 13.5 606 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...DUKES COUNTY... 3 N WEST TISBURY 14.0 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WEST TISBURY 11.5 610 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 1 WSW VINEYARD HAVEN 10.1 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ...ESSEX COUNTY... SAUGUS 28.2 1243 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC LYNN 27.0 1152 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SALEM 25.0 405 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MIDDLETON 25.0 258 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC METHUEN 24.5 1112 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER TOPSFIELD 24.0 243 PM 2/09 NONE MARBLEHEAD 23.0 306 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER GLOUCESTER 21.0 1103 AM 2/09 MEDIA 4 WNW HAVERHILL 20.0 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 2 S BOXFORD 19.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS SALISBURY 19.0 706 AM 2/09 NONE NEWBURYPORT 19.0 708 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 4 NW SALISBURY 19.0 600 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 3 NW BEVERLY 18.5 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... LEVERETT 23.0 1205 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC GREENFIELD 20.0 820 AM 2/09 MEDIA TURNERS FALLS 19.0 1223 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC SHELBURNE 19.0 1225 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC WARWICK 16.6 731 AM 2/09 T F GREEN COLRAIN 16.0 249 PM 2/09 NONE EAST CHARLEMONT 15.5 730 AM 2/09 SPOTTER HEATH 14.0 704 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...HAMPDEN COUNTY... SOUTHWICK 28.3 800 AM 2/09 NONE AGAWAM 24.0 1120 AM 2/09 TRAINRD SPOTTER MONSON 24.0 653 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO BLANDFORD 24.0 446 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WESTFIELD 23.0 750 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC CHESTER 22.0 752 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WEST SPRINGFIELD 21.0 836 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO LUDLOW 20.5 1008 AM 2/09 NONE EAST LONGMEADOW 20.0 1246 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO SPRINGFIELD 18.5 630 AM 2/09 CO-OP CHICOPEE 18.0 833 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO PALMER 18.0 1113 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... WESTHAMPTON 25.0 913 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTHAMPTON 24.0 700 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WALES 22.0 927 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO AMHERST 21.5 731 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER GRANBY 21.0 733 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH HADLEY 20.0 644 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HUNTINGTON 20.0 1258 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO BELCHERTOWN 18.5 625 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER AMHERST COLLEGE 17.8 630 AM 2/09 NONE WORTHINGTON 16.0 829 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER WARE 16.0 425 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO PLAINFIELD 15.9 644 AM 2/09 NONE ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... FRAMINGHAM 30.5 910 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WINCHESTER 30.2 319 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC WILMINGTON 29.0 323 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC SOMERVILLE 28.0 932 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC WAKEFIELD 27.5 100 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC ACTON 27.0 128 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC BELMONT 27.0 732 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO LITTLETON 27.0 903 AM 2/09 NONE MELROSE 26.5 553 AM 2/09 NONE READING 26.2 210 PM 2/09 TRIAINED SPOTTER CAMBRIDGE 26.0 1112 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO HUDSON 26.0 936 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO TYNGSBORO 26.0 1032 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SHERBORN 25.8 716 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO NORTH WOBURN 25.5 352 PM 2/09 NONE 1 SW ACTON 25.4 845 AM 2/09 COCORAHS TOWNSEND 25.1 1016 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 NNE NATICK 25.0 840 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WALTHAM 25.0 734 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO DRACUT 24.9 105 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC NATICK 24.0 1022 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WESTFORD 24.0 725 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO MEDFORD 24.0 812 AM 2/09 NONE MAYNARD 24.0 937 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO BILLERICA 23.8 210 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC BEDFORD 23.2 1230 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WAYLAND 22.5 1239 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO PEPPERELL 22.2 1135 AM 2/09 NONE CONCORD 22.0 1210 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC SHIRLEY 22.0 910 AM 2/09 NONE STONEHAM 22.0 715 AM 2/09 SPOTTER HOPKINTON 21.3 1151 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ASHLAND 21.0 140 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC LEXINGTON 21.0 1235 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO AYER 20.8 1116 AM 2/09 NONE HOLLISTON 20.5 259 PM 2/09 NONE MALDEN 20.0 1110 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO LOWELL 20.0 1005 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO CHELMSFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 NONE GROTON 18.0 1145 AM 2/09 LAW ENFORCEMENT ...NANTUCKET COUNTY... NANTUCKET 6.3 1156 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...NORFOLK COUNTY... QUINCY 30.0 104 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC MILTON 28.0 143 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC 1 NW WEYMOUTH 26.0 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WEYMOUTH 26.0 911 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WRENTHAM 26.0 702 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO RANDOLPH 26.0 152 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH WEYMOUTH 25.8 400 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BROOKLINE 25.5 1125 AM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE NORWOOD 25.4 1233 PM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE FOXBORO 24.5 1200 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BRAINTREE 24.1 951 AM 2/09 MEDIA 1 NW NORWOOD 24.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WEST WALPOLE 23.8 1150 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WELLESLEY 23.5 746 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH WEYMOUTH 23.0 128 PM 2/09 MEDIA WALPOLE 22.0 707 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO DEDHAM 22.0 1000 AM 2/09 NONE MILLIS 22.0 655 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HINGHAM 21.5 924 AM 2/09 NONE FRANKLIN 20.9 704 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SHARON 15.0 312 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...PLYMOUTH COUNTY... WEST BRIDGEWATER 22.0 631 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 2 S HINGHAM 21.0 730 AM 2/09 COCORAHS HANOVER 19.0 658 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC HANSON 17.8 556 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO MIDDLEBORO 15.0 838 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO PLYMOUTH 11.5 821 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... SOUTH BOSTON 28.0 328 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER JAMAICA PLAIN 25.5 1004 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WEST ROXBURY 25.0 329 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO WINTHROP 24.9 100 PM 2/09 LOGAN AIRPORT CHELSEA 23.0 1015 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 W BRIGHTON 22.5 745 AM 2/09 COCORAHS N WINTHROP 21.8 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 1 N EAST BOSTON 21.8 710 AM 2/09 LOGAN AIRPORT ...WORCESTER COUNTY... SPENCER 31.0 1030 AM 2/09 NONE FITCHBURG 30.2 304 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTHBORO 29.5 1002 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO STERLING 28.0 1244 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC WORCESTER 28.0 747 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO MILFORD 28.0 843 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC SHREWSBURY 27.0 735 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ATHOL 27.0 1023 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 1 SSE NORTHBOROUGH 26.7 835 AM 2/09 COCORAHS LEICESTER 26.0 1110 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO MILBURY 26.0 754 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO SOUTHBORO 25.5 646 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO OXFORD 25.2 623 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC TEMPLETON 25.0 405 AM 2/09 NONE CLINTON 25.0 811 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC DOUGLAS 25.0 826 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO CHARLTON 24.5 224 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO GARDNER 24.0 758 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO ASHBURNHAM 23.5 305 PM 2/09 CO-OP WESTMINSTER 22.3 1143 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 1 E SOUTHBRIDGE 22.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS BOYLSTON 21.8 1030 AM 2/09 NONE NORTH GRAFTON 21.2 1147 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO LEOMINSTER 20.8 219 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER GRAFTON 20.5 955 AM 2/09 NONE HOPEDALE 20.0 1141 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO HARVARD 19.0 1054 AM 2/09 NONE 2 SSW FITCHBURG 19.0 600 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 2 S LEOMINSTER 18.9 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ROYAL;STON 18.2 102 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ROYALSTON 15.0 818 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NEW HAMPSHIRE ...CHESHIRE COUNTY... EAST ALSTEAD 14.0 706 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER KEENE 14.0 1123 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WNW WEST CHESTERFIEL 12.5 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS WALPOLE 9.5 839 AM 2/09 NONE ...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY... NEW BOSTON 30.4 959 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC MOUNT VERNON 30.0 313 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO GOFFSTOWN 28.0 802 AM 2/09 NONE NEW IPSWICH 25.0 354 AM 2/09 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE HOLLIS 24.0 856 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO NASHUA 24.0 500 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO PELHAM 24.0 715 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 4 NNE AMHERST 24.0 1000 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 2 S NEW BOSTON 23.0 745 AM 2/09 COCORAHS MILFORD 22.0 1130 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO 1 S NEW IPSWICH 22.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS HUDSON 21.7 323 PM 2/09 NONE SOUTH WEARE 20.5 1200 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MONT VERNON 20.0 1259 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PETERBOROUGH 20.0 1240 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH WEARE 19.5 1014 AM 2/09 NONE 3 W MERRIMACK 18.0 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 1 SSW MONT VERNON 18.0 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 3 SE MILFORD 17.0 752 AM 2/09 COCORAHS BEDFORD 16.0 1000 AM 2/09 NONE 3 ENE HOLLIS 11.5 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS RHODE ISLAND ...KENT COUNTY... WEST WARWICK 21.5 921 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WARWICK 20.0 948 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC 2 NNW WARWICK 16.6 700 AM 2/09 TF GREEN AIRPORT ...NEWPORT COUNTY... PORTSMOUTH 15.2 1200 PM 2/09 NWS EMPLOYEE LITTLE COMPTON 12.5 1121 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...PROVIDENCE COUNTY... WEST GLOCESTER 27.6 1046 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER NORTH FOSTER 26.3 1023 AM 2/09 NWS COOP WOONSOCKET 26.1 100 PM 2/09 MEDIA GLOCESTER 26.0 1237 PM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC BURRILLVILLE 26.0 1141 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC 3 SE WEST GLOCESTER 25.7 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS 1 ESE WOONSOCKET 24.4 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS CUMBERLAND 24.1 635 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO NORTH SCITUATE 24.0 1018 AM 2/09 LAW ENFORCEMENT SMITHFIELD 24.0 714 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO NE MANVILLE 23.9 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS LINCOLN 21.0 920 AM 2/09 NONE 1 SW PAWTUCKET 21.0 800 AM 2/09 COCORAHS PROVIDENCE/NORTH PRO 20.5 912 AM 2/09 GENERAL PUBLIC NORTH CUMBERLAND 20.0 229 AM 2/09 NONE PROVIDENCE 19.5 818 AM 2/09 NONE EAST PROVIDENCE 17.3 357 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 E CRANSTON 17.1 700 AM 2/09 COCORAHS ...WASHINGTON COUNTY... CHARLESTOWN 19.0 654 AM 2/09 HAM RADIO WESTERLY 14.0 1251 PM 2/09 HAM RADIO

The 10/18 0z ECMWF had a really odd solution in the extended, low-skill range. I'm referring to the track/redevelopment of the low that it shows forming along a cold front over Alabama. 300 Hours: 312 Hours: 324 Hours: Afterward, the storm tracks into Iowa, across Wisconsin and into Ontario. Between hours 348 and 360 it rapidly intensifies from a central pressure of 998 mb to 972 mb. It's too soon to be sure, but odd or wild solutions, along with a lack of run-to-run continuity, often develops for periods of transition. So, this might be an early hint that the closing days of October and opening week of November might be a time to watch for a pattern change.

Science does not treat models as faith. Neither do I. Models are tools that represent physical processes, tested against data, improved through hindcasting, and used to estimate probabilities. The comment confuses trust in validated methodology with blind belief. Uncertainty in basic areas concerning whether temperatures will increase , sea level will rise, ice will melt, is low. Uncertainty about amounts exists, but it isn’t so great that it justifies inaction.

February 8-9, 2013 was a very big snowstorm, especially in parts of CT. From Fairfield:

You wrote this, "Even if CO2 increase was stopped today and reversed - we would all still be doomed. Thus - why bother? Unless perhaps you think we have the ability to stop continental drift (?)" I didn't. All of the points I raised about sea level rise are based on the science. I provided links to papers. Doggerland and Delos are examples. They come from the literature. I get that you want to maintain the status quo and rationalize it. But those rationalizations don't change the reality that the status quo approach is a matter of choice. Choices have consequences. If, what is modeled, proves accurate, the consequences will have been foreseen and avoidable. Those consequences would have resulted from a cumulative set of choices that were made.

Here's something I found. Unfortunately, it's a general overview of the process. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/Documentation_Daily_Gridded_Normals V1.0.pdf

February 13, 2014: 9.5"; PNA: -1.097

Bridgeport: Raw: 56.0; Normal: 56.4 Islip: Raw: 55.7; Normal: 55.7 JFK: Raw: 57.8; Normal: 57.2 LGA: Raw: 59.3; Normal: 59.6 Newark: Raw: 57.8; Normal: 57.5

It's a Category 5 marine heatwave.

Here are the rules for NYC: https://www.nyc.gov/site/mayorspeu/resources/heat-season-resources.page#:~:text=Heat Season (October 1st - May 31st),least 62°F%2C regardless of the outdoor temperature.

It will turn milder during the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny conditions should prevail. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s tomorrow and then upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Sunday. A cold front will move across the region Sunday night. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with locally higher amounts appears likely. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +1.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.328 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For January, a PNA+ is all but necessary for big snowstorms. New York City's data: Looking at a wider lens that goes back to 1950 when daily teleconnection data became available, 75% of all January snowstorms (n=24) that brought 10" or more snow to Boston, New York City, and/or Philadelphia had a PNA+. All 15 January storms that brought 10" or more snow to at least two of those three cities had a PNA+. 90% of January storms (n=10) that brought 10" of snow to either New York City or Philadelphia had a PNA+.

This is getting to absurd "twilight zone" alternate reality territory. Wild claims are made. No scientific literature is cited to support the thesis of doom. Comparing CO2 mitigation to “stopping continental drift” is rhetorically clever but scientifically irrelevant. Continental drift operates over tens of millions of years, not the decades/centuries/millennia under discussion with climate change and the responses to changes in forcing. It’s incorrect to suggest that halting or reversing CO2 rise would have no effect. If CO2 concentrations stabilize or decline, global temperatures would likely follow over decades to centuries, as radiative forcing equilibrates (equilibrium climate sensitivity). The system’s inertia is large but not infinite. "Doomed no matter what” has little or no scientific support. It is nothing more than a rallying cry to stick with an unsustainable status quo. To be sure, a degree of melt/sea-level rise is baked in. However, there is no evidence that an inflection point has been reached where the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are doomed to disappear. The latest estimate for an inflection point for Greenland is 1.7°-2.3°C. For Antarctica, the latest estimates for the West is 1°-3°C and 2°-6°C for the East. One recent study suggested that an additional 0.25°C ocean warming could reach the inflection point for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Mitigation can reduce the extent of warming. Society is not helpless. The problem is largely not technical or technological. It's largely political. It's about societal choice, specifically a choice to stick with the status quo while fully aware of the consequences of that choice. The "Doomist" characterization deployed to argue against mitigation is what's foolish, particularly as human agency exists. Alternative paths away from the status quo of dumping some 40 gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year do exist.

Correlations with teleconnections e.g., the PNA, provide one perspective in addressing questions e.g., will it snow? But to get a better understanding, one needs to look more deeply. For example, the spread of PNA values for snow events can result in a low correlation. However, if one categorizes events by PNA- or PNA+, one can get distinctive differences in the frequency of events e.g., just over two-thirds of New York City's measurable snow events during winter occur when the PNA is positive. Here's daily snowfall and PNA data for New York City's Central Park:

Currently, I am playing with a three-step analog construction method that incorporates ENSO evolution, forecast winter ENSO, and major teleconnections, using root mean square error (RMSE) values to rank potential 500 mb analogs. I am using the 1990-present period to represent the contemporary climate state with its increasingly widespread warm SSTAs and growing incidence of marine heatwaves. I had been considering just using the last 30 years of data but decided to start a little earlier at 1990. Below are maps using the top three analogs. Interestingly enough, 2021-22, which I discussed previously, was among them. Fall 2025: Winter 2025-2026: Fall to Date (through October 14): So far, there are some big differences in the Pacific domain with the most anomalous trough and ridge displaced well north of what the analog group suggests. But this early data covers just over 48% of the fall season. Winter 2025-2026 ECMWF Forecast: Personally, I do not like the use of 2011-12, but I didn't exclude it from this analysis, because this exercise is aimed at developing cases objectively without human subjectivity. One case that I have among my current mix 2024-25 didn't come up in this exercise. This exercise is for purposes of illustration and learning. It will not affect my final choices. Unless there are some big changes, I won't include 2011-12. In contrast, 2024-25 still seems worth including to me. The common reference to 2021-22 gives me added confidence that its emergence as a strong example is real. Ultimately, this exercise is about trying to develop a more objective approach toward picking seasonal cases. If there is promise, I might try adding some additional variables e.g., QBO. Finally, it should be noted that even zonal-looking 500 mb patterns do not preclude periods of synoptic differences e.g., blocking. I suspect that there will be several periods of blocking this coming winter.

Your claim misses the larger point of my examples. It does not matter whether the sea rises or the land subsides. The result is the same. The water line advances relative to human settlements and ecosystems. At Delos, the submerged temples and quays bear witness to centuries of the intertwined forces of subsidence compounded by accelerating global sea-level rise from thermal expansion and melting ice. These processes do not cancel each other. They reinforce one another. Delos, like Doggerland, stands as a warning of what coastal cities around the world may face as relative sea level climbs ever faster through the 21st century under humanity's choice to continue to inject massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Sea-level rise is incremental in pace but cumulative in consequence. It undermines foundations, salinizes water tables, and devours shorelines. The crisis is not measured in centimeters per year, but in the permanence of its trajectory. The seas will continue rising for centuries, long after the emissions that drive them have ceased, because the response of the ice caps to the warming is a slow feedback. Calling it “ludicrous” to treat Delos as a cautionary crisis misunderstands the lesson. The near one-meter rise projected by the end of the 21st century and several meters by 2300, will erase vast stretches of today’s coastal infrastructure. Miami, New York, Jakarta, Shanghai, and Bangkok are among vulnerable cities. To apply the dismissal of Delos' lessons and accordingly view the eventual partial inundation of the major cities I listed, among others, as a “non-crisis” is the kind of short-sighted thinking that is produced by the limits of human nature that Tip and I had been discussing.

We agree that it’s a large adjustment. Unfortunately, I don’t have the specific details.

Such lows are occurring later. Central Park: 1961-1990: 10/19; 1991-2020: 10/22; 2000-2025: 10/24 JFK: 1961-1990: 10/17; 1991-2020: 10/21; 2000-2025: 10/22

Statistical adjustments are involved. The numbers aren't raw averages. https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals