donsutherland1

Yes, that's a key point. Good communication is essential in a field like meteorology. Even if one might prefer to use a different term, one shouldn't portray one's preference as a requirement, especially when one's own profession recognizes the term one objects to.

Parts of the region could see a shower tonight or early tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region. In the wake of the frontal passage, high temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 80s tomorrow before the push of cooler air overspreads the region. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. On account of the cool air, August 2025 will be among the five coolest Augusts since 2000. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.087 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The Reality: "Heat Dome" is a standard term in the AMS Glossary of Meteorology Now, on a more serious note: I suspect that X-post by X-post, one sees the reason he is working out-of-field as a policy analyst for an interest group (not a scientific organization), neither as an operational nor research meteorologist. To work in a profession like meteorology, one can't impose one's personal opinions or preferences on what is a scientific field. One has to apply the evidence, theories, and principles of that field (even if one personally disagrees), until or unless one comes up with a credible, evidence-based alternative that is better than the understanding it would replace. In operational meteorology, it is imperative that meteorologists today be able to explain the climate link for extreme events e.g., how climate change has made extreme precipitation events more frequent and/or more intense, especially on TV or radio. Trashing attribution science to avoid recognizing climate-weather links one personally rejects or treating the evolution of climate as nothing more than an abstract statistic, is disqualifying. In the research area, one must be objective in all areas ranging from framing research questions to interpreting the evidence. Finally, his criticism directed against meteorologists, along with high-profile climate scientists, on X has likely shut doors to professional opportunity at the NWS and large private firms such as AccuWeather. Meteorologists, like most other professionals, work closely together. Someone who would undermine team chemistry would be a problem for the entire team's performance. His social media history can easily be reviewed through Glassdoor, among other social media-scraping applications. Employers won't seriously consider hiring someone who might not fit within an organization's culture, chemistry, and structures. Employers understand the importance of culture, chemistry, and structure to high performance, and the importance of high performance to their organizations' success. They won't knowingly compromise these attributes in their hiring process. Technology has made due diligence far more robust and cost-effective than it once was. Organizations won't gamble with the sources of their success, as they would have too much to lose.

I suspect that he intended it. After all, he corrected himself elsewhere in the thread he started, but ignored the multiple corrections concerning the solar state. If he corrected himself on one issue, there's no plausible reason he would not do so for another error, unless he intended his statement to be what it was.

The Washington Post has an article showing how summers have lengthened in the United States. In part, the article states: In recent decades, sweat-inducing temperatures have been arriving earlier and ending later in the year. An analysis of U.S. weather data shared with The Washington Post shows which places are experiencing notably longer summer seasons than they were three decades ago. Temperatures are spiking to levels typically seen in June earlier than expected and lingering longer at the end of the season. The analysis, conducted by climatologist Brian Brettschneider, examined the hottest 90 days of the year from 1965 to 1994 and compared their frequency over 1995 to 2024. He found that the temperatures that used to kick off the hottest three months of the year are expanding beyond the calendar definition of summer. For illustrative purposes, I ran the numbers for Phoenix, which has seen a rapid increase in extreme heat in recent years. There, September 1-15 is now as hot as August 16-31 once was. One has not yet seen such a dramatic shift in the northern U.S. e.g., September 1-15 is nearing the August 16-31 levels in Central Park during the first two decades of the 20th century. In short, warming has occurred, just not as dramatic as that seen in the southern half of the United States, including but not limited to such cities as Phoenix.

It was probably a category 2 at NJ landfall based on the below report. https://riskandinsurance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Swiss-Re_the_big_one_us_hurricane.pdf

Thanks. I missed it. My apologies.

As reverse Google searches failed to turn up the photo or information about it, I turned to AI to make an estimate. Here's the AI assessment: Historical Photo Assessment Report **Subject:** Flooded street scene with people in a rowboat **Probable Date Range:** 1895–1915 1. Photographic Technology - Sepia tone and matte finish consistent with late 19th to early 20th century printing. - Likely a gelatin silver or albumen print—popular in this timeframe. - Large-format camera, outdoor composition—consistent with photos from ~1890 onward. - Not a tintype or daguerreotype, which rules out pre-1880s. 2. Clothing & Fashion - Men: Bowler hats, flat caps, sack coats, and high-buttoned jackets → typical 1890s–1910s. - Children: Boys wearing knee-length trousers and caps, common pre-1920. - A girl figure (left of boat): coat, knee-length skirt, stockings → typical children’s dress of 1900–1915. - No bobbed hair or shorter dresses, which rules out the 1920s onward. 3. Hairstyles & Grooming - Men appear clean-shaven or with short mustaches, no full Victorian-style beards. - The clean-shaven look became dominant after 1890. 4. Architecture & Built Environment - Wood clapboard siding (left) and brick commercial block (right) → typical northeastern/mid-Atlantic U.S. urban architecture c. 1880–1910. - Storefront signage: painted glass with “High Grade Hats for Cash / Cigars” → typography and phrasing characteristic of turn-of-the-century advertising. 5. Technology in Scene - No automobiles, no electric poles with visible wiring, no modern streetlamps. - Rowboat transport → indicates pre-automobile flood response. - Absence of cars suggests pre-1915 urban America. 6. Photographic Context - Group portrait-like arrangement: people posed but outdoors. - Mix of children and adults, plus deliberate posing, suggests community or news documentation typical of early disaster photography. Overall Assessment Bringing together photographic style, clothing, architecture, and technology, the most likely date range for this photograph is 1895–1915, with a strong clustering around 1900–1910.

Of note, unless that is a simulated photo of what it might have looked like, it has to be from a different storm. It was probably taken in the late 19th century or early 20th century, perhaps during the 1893 hurricane or 1903 hurricane; 1903 would probably be more likely as that hurricane made landfall in NJ while the 1893 hurricane passed just east of NJ). No photos were taken during the 1821 hurricane. The first actual photo (heliograph) was taken in 1822.

Yes, most of the Philadelphia’s winter warming has occurred after winter 1984-85.

I used the latest normals. That makes almost everything appear cold. Here’s the same chart using the NOAA’s 20th century mean as the baseline.

Those really cold summers were 1903 and 1927. Both were very wet summers in a colder climate. Drier years followed and by the time a wetter cycle (internal variability and climate change-forced) returned, the climate had warmed quite a bit from where it was prior to 1930.

Here's how Philadelphia's winters look against the current (very warm) baseline normals:

Statistically, the back-to-back 102° highs at JFK during late June are a lot rarer.

Here it is with 1951-1980 (which is used by NASA GISS): The most recent summer that was cooler than the above baseline was summer 2017.

For those tracking the heat in the Pacific Northwest, Portland has now reached 100° or above for the second consecutive day. August 22-23, 2025 is the latest two-day or longer streak on record. The prior latest two-day streak of 100° or above occurred during August 19-20, 2016.

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline: For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline: The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

Their goal, and that of other social media influencers, has nothing to do with honest discussion. It's solely about obfuscation. That's why they can only succeed in political circles, not scientific ones. Indeed, many of these influencers are viewed dismally in scientific circles. Their efforts are shoddy, filled with errors, and miss even basic points. I sometimes bring up some of them here, so that people are aware of what's going on. One example, not posted here, but on X: The basic error here that Martz (a social media influencer who is active in denying anthropogenic climate change and its impacts) makes is that he does not understand that probability measures the chance of an event occurring/not occurring. It does not directly measure model accuracy. Thus, he essentially endorses a post that asserts that a 5% probability of an event's occurrence means that he models were "wrong 95% of the time." This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what statistics measure and what they do not measure. Indeed, that fundamental error guides this inability to comprehend attribution science and its merit in explaining in statistical terms how much more likely and/or more intense an event was in the contemporary warmer climate. Unfortunately, many who are exposed to such content do not have the backgrounds or understanding to recognize that they are being misled.

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Monday before another push of cooler air moves in. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.352 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (1.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

So far, the ECMWF is an outlier in terms of a return to extreme heat, but the period looks abnormally warm. We'll see what the 12z ECMWF shows. I agree with you about the changes in climate classifications. The warming is ongoing and fairly dramatic. At least one episode of extreme heat has become a fairly regular occurrence. The number of hot days has increased markedly.

Summer 2025 to date for Central Park:

For JFK, it is August 23rd (1991-2020 baseline).

Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (Central Park, JFK, LaGuardia), Newark, and White Plains had high temperatures that were within 3° of one another for the 4th consecutive day. The last time there were four consecutive days with such a narrow range was December 23-26, 2022.

Yes, that's correct. So far, at least seven sites in Oregon or Washington have reached 100 or above. Daily records have fallen at locations including Corvallis, Portland, and Vancouver (WA). Portland finished with a high of 102.

Winter 2013-14 was a neutral winter (cool ENSO that fell short of a La Niña).