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Everything posted by donsutherland1
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No. There is no record where NYC saw measurable snowfall with a low of 40 or above.
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Full hourly information isn't available, but from the data that is available, it appears that that around 0.12" fell when the temperature was 39 and the wet bulb temperature was 38. That was April 1875. Snowfall amounts were: April 7: 0.5" April 13-14: 10.0" (April 13: 8.7"; April 14: 1.3" April 25: 3.0" Total Snowfall: 13.5"
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The map is wrong for Brooklyn. No measurable snowfall was reported in the City on the PNS. Moreover, JFK is the closest reporting stating to Brooklyn and the low was 38°. New York City's greatest snowfall accumulation with a low of 38° or above was 0.5" on March 18, 1899. At that time, the City's urban footprint was much smaller than it is today. 393 NOUS41 KOKX 121800 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-130600- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 200 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 1.2 in 0530 AM 04/12 Trained Spotter ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport T in 0500 AM 04/12 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell Airport T in 0500 AM 04/12 ASOS ...New York... ...Orange County... Chester 3.5 in 0900 AM 04/12 Public Monroe 3.0 in 0810 AM 04/12 Trained Spotter 2 SSW Maybrook 2.6 in 0615 AM 04/12 Trained Spotter 2 E Highland Mills 2.5 in 0800 AM 04/12 Public 2 S Pine Bush 2.4 in 0705 AM 04/12 Public ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia T in 0400 AM 04/12 Official NWS Obs &&
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The first one included occurred during the pre-dawn hours where there was a trace of snow/sleet.
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A combination of factors likely contributed including the fading La Niña, abnormal ocean SSTAs (especially a long area of cold SSTAs just north of the Equator).
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No. A trace was recorded yesterday. Traces were also recorded on April 23, 2020; May 9, 2020; and April 21, 2021. Had it been measurable, it would have been the second latest in more than 50 years.
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Early update on the AI idea for New York City (through April 12th): The monthly mean temperature and monthly maximum temperature are running well below the AI idea. But there are signs that the gaps could close during closing 10 days of the month, if the ECMWF weekly guidance is correct. From April 11th: From April 12th (latest):
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Yes. None of the other local airports recorded any snow.
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Clouds will break tomorrow with the temperature approaching but falling just short of seasonable levels. Monday and Tuesday will be somewhat awrmer than normal before another surge of cooler air moves into the region by the middle of next week. Milder air will likely return to end the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +17.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.421 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal).
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Depends where one is. If one is at White Plains and northward, there could be a coating. Within 10-20 miles of the City, some sleet might mix in, but there very likely won't be any accumulations. Both the 18z NAM and 18z GFS are very likely overdone.
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A cold rain will develop this evening or early tonight and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 40s in New York City area tomorrow. Some sleet pellets are possible outside New York City. Across parts of Central New York State and central New England, wet snow is possible. An appreciable snowfall is possible in higher elevations. Where areas remain above freezing, snowfall amounts will be limited. The temperature could approach seasonable levels on Sunday and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +25.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.151 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5° (1.2° below normal).
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The pattern led to a stalled front. Thunderstorms developed and trained along that front for days, producing extreme rainfall in parts of the Tennessee Valley.
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Very beautiful. They'll get more tonight.
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Northeastern Canada is running colder than normal. Some of that cold air is draining into the Northeast. The AO has less influence now, as wave lengths are shorter.
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Tonight will be cloudy, breezy, and cool. Some showers are likely. A few distant northern and western suburbs could even see a little snow or sleet. The week will end on a chilly note. A steady rain will develop tomorrow and continue through Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Temperatures will top out in the 40s in New York City. The temperature could approach seasonable levels by the end of the weekend and then briefly go above normal early next week. However, before the warmth could become established, another surge of cooler air will push into the region by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -6.85 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.061 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (1.1° below normal).
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1.0".
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It will begin to turn somewhat milder starting tomorrow, but temperatures will remain below seasonal norms. Temperatures could approach seasonable levels by the end of the weekend and it could briefly turn milder than normal early next week. In addition, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is likely from Friday through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +3.32 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.103 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.0° (0.7° below normal).
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JFK reached 32; LGA fell to 33; and, NYC dropped to 31.
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Central Park reached 32 at 6 am.
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Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. High temperatures will top out in the upper 40s in New York City. The low temperature tomorrow morning could be near freezing in New York City and perhaps in the upper 20s outside the City. It will begin to turn somewhat milder after midweek with temperatures approaching near seasonable levels during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +13.84 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.790 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.3° (0.4° below normal).
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Tomorrow and Wednesday will be unseasonably cool days. High temperatures will likely remain confined to the 40s in New York City through Wednesday. The low temperature on Wednesday morning could be near freezing in New York City and perhaps in the upper 20s outside the City. It will begin to turn milder after midweek with temperatures approaching near seasonable levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +6.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.776 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.5° (0.2° below normal).
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New York State. Typo.
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It will turn noticeably cooler tomorrow with some additional showers and light rain. Parts of New York State could even see some snow with a minor accumulation (0.5" or less) possible in Albany through tomorrow. High temperatures will likely remain confined to the 40s in New York City through Wednesday. It will begin to turn milder after midweek with temperatures approaching near seasonable levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +6.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.852 today.
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oceans have been warming from top down. I strongly doubt that his speculation has much merit. That we’re coming off an La Niña suggests that 2025 should be somewhat cooler than 2024 was overall, including SSTs. -
It will turn somewhat milder tomorrow with additional showers and thundershowers possible. Highs will likely reach the upper 50s in New York City and middle 60s in Philadelphia. It turn noticeably cooler on Monday with some additional showers. Much of next week could feature below normal temperatures. It will begin to turn milder after midweek with temperatures approaching near seasonable levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +4.47 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.484 today.