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donsutherland1

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  1. With the continuing warmth, more and more blossoms are overspreading the New York Botanical Garden.
  2. A light sea breeze held readings in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s across parts of Long Island. Meanwhile the mercury rose into the 70s in Philadelphia to Washington, DC. The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +4.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.048 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.8° (4.0° above normal).
  3. What a difference three days makes. ECMWF Weekly Forecasts from March 10th: 3/18-25: 3/25-4/1: From March 13th: 3/18-25: 3/25-4/1: Scale:
  4. This development is disappointing. I'm not sure why the MEI can't be reconstructed using the JRA-3Q dataset (the successor of the discontinued JRA-55). Of course, if the new dataset excludes one or more variables used in the calculation, that's a different matter.
  5. Some of the blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule. Early blooms are fast becoming the norm: https://wapo.st/3Tnni3M
  6. A +4.0 or above anomaly is certainly plausible, especially if the long-range guidance continues to prove colder than what actually occurs.
  7. White forsythia are now coming into bloom at the New York Botanical Garden.
  8. Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the middle 60s across parts of the region. The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -5.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.335 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).
  9. In South Africa, summer has ended. Unfortunately, there's no skill whatsoever on cloud forecasts from this far out.
  10. It has been exceptional. One location in South Africa had a high of 117.
  11. The CFSv2 also shows less cold air for Week 2: March 10: March 11:
  12. Is an old story set to play out yet again? ECMWF Weeklies for March 18-25 from March 10: ECMWF Weeklies for March 18-25 from March 11:
  13. The wind, which gusted past 50 mph in much of the region today will gradually diminish overnight. Afterward, it will seem as if the calendar had been turned forward into April. It will turn noticeably milder starting tomorrow. The warmth will peak during Wednesday through Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. There is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.287 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).
  14. March 1-10, 2024 was the second warmest such period on record in New York City. It was also the wettest such period on record with 4.57" of precipitation (old record: 3.65", 2018).
  15. Final outcome: A very warm and very wet week.
  16. Following afternoon showers, some of which were mixed with wet snowflakes and graupel, the temperature fell into the lower 40s and a gusty wind picked up. Tomorrow will be a brisk day. Afterward, it will turn noticeably milder. The warmth will peak during Wednesday through Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. There is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +6.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.652 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).
  17. I took it this morning at the New York Botanical Garden. All of the Japanese Apricot trees are in full bloom now. Four are in bloom at one location and the additional Japanese Apricot is in bloom at a separate location. It's really unusual. Here's the EXIF data: Some of what's currently in bloom at the Ladies' Border Garden at the New York Botanical Garden: Not pictured: Adonis and Camelia.
  18. There is rain with a little wet snow mixing in at Larchmont.
  19. Following last night's rainstorm at the New York Botanical Garden.
  20. Week ahead numbers: A very warm and generally dry week lies ahead.
  21. Rain, some of which will fall heavily, will continue into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely by the time the storm ends. Coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the storm. A period of drier weather will follow the storm's departure. After a brisk days tomorrow and Monday, it will turn noticeably milder. The warmth will peak on Thursday and Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. Afterward, there is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no Arctic air masses are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for it to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +5.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.831 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).
  22. Early on, it was clear that he was going against the guidance when he called for a Modoki El Niño. No guidance showed a Modoki event. From last year: Forecast assumptions should be evidence-informed. Relying on evidence provides no guarantee of success given the limitations of long range guidance, but it gives one a better chance at verification. At the same time, one should have the courage to adjust the forecast when developments warrant adjustment rather than doubling down on one’s ideas. Further, one should avoid confirmation bias from only choosing guidance that agrees with one’s thinking, especially when such guidance is an outlier. Finally, the climate context matters. The shift in SSTAs, impact of ongoing marine heatwaves, smaller pool of deep cold, etc., render past analogs irrelevant unless they are adjusted. In the end, the winter guidance was very accurate for North America.
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