donsutherland1

It will turn noticeably milder early next week. Parts of the region could experience their warmest temperatures so far this spring during the warm spell. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of next week. The weekend and week ahead will also be mainly dry. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first half of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February dissipated during the first week of March. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +10.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.909 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (3.3° above normal).

It will take time to research all of the storms. But yes, it can be done.

There were some snow flurries in Larchmont.

Intervals in days or between storms?

I thought the question concerned consecutive days without 6" or more snow. Obviously, the intervals between 6"+ storms is shorter

A cool but not exceptionally cold weekend lies ahead. The chill will be short-lived. It will turn noticeably milder early next week. Parts of the region could experience their warmest temperatures so far this spring during the warm spell. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of next week. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first half of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has dissipated. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +9.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.487 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (3.5° above normal).

December 13-14, 1917 saw a 9.5" snowstorm. Then there were no more 6" or above snowstorms until February 4-7, 1920 when a storm dumped 17.5".

Through March 5th, Boston has had 28.1" of snow. Normal through March 5th is 41.0". Boston is more than 30% below normal. I wouldn't describe its current snowfall as being "slightly below normal."

NYC is still far from its record:

It will be cooler tomorrow through the weekend. However, it will turn noticeably milder early next week. Parts of the region could experience their warmest temperatures so far this spring. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of next week. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first half of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has now broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +1.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.700 today.

Probably little or no snow this month.

Rain will continue into early tomorrow. By the time the storm departs, a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. The highest amounts could occur on parts of Long Island. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s. Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold for the weekend. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend, but the weekend should be mainly dry. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has all but broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +4.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.022 today.

The maps can be found here: https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

A storm will bring 0.50"-1.50" of rain from Philadelphia to Boston on tomorrow into Thursday. The highest amounts could be located across parts of Long Island. It will be unseasonably mild with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s on both days. Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend. The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February continues to fade. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +3.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.724 today.

Weak El Niño.

That's a nationwide map. The exceptional cold from 2014-15 was in the East and there was a lot of warmth in the West.

Temperatures will rebound quickly starting tomorrow. A storm will bring 0.50"-1.50" of rain from Philadelphia to Boston on Wednesday into Thursday. Two GFS runs notwithstanding, the risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February is continuing to fade. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring. The SOI was +3.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.342 today.

The final outcome:

This morning, New York City had a low temperature of 19°. That was the first time the temperature had fallen into the teens in New York City in March since March 7, 2019 when the low temperature was 18°. Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 30s in New York City. Low temperatures will start in the lower 20s in New York City and teens outside the City. Temperatures will rebound quickly starting Tuesday. A storm will bring 0.50"-1.50" of rain from Philadelphia to Boston on Wednesday into Thursday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could also feature a bout of much above normal temperatures. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February is continuing to fade. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +1.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.311 today.

22 times: JFK's low was 23°.

The week ahead on the guidance:

Central Park has fallen to 19° so far. That is the first time Central Park has been in the teens in March since March 7, 2019 when the mercury fell to 18°.

Ahead of a strong cold front, temperatures surged into the 50s and 60s across the region. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 68° Baltimore: 66° Bridgeport: 57° Islip: 52° New York City-Central Park: 64° New York City-JFK Airport: 67° (old record: 61°, 2017) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 65° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Washington, DC: 69° Much colder air is now pouring into the region on a stiff wind following today's springlike warmth. The brief but sharp shot of cold will be in place tomorrow and Monday. Tomorrow and Monday will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 30s in New York City. Low temperatures will reach the lower 20s in New York City and teens outside the City. There is a chance that New York City could see its high temperature reach no higher than freezing tomorrow. The last time New York City had a high of 32° in March was March 7, 2019. The last time New York City had a high below 32° in March was March 6, 2019 when the temperature topped out at 26°. Temperatures will rebound quickly starting Tuesday. A moderate to possibly significant rainfall is possible Wednesday into Thursday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the first week of March. The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February is finally fading. But magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls during Winter 2024-2025. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +2.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today.

1992-1993 fell to 63rd worst winter (and would likely rank as the 64th worst once this winter concludes).

Updates on last week’s thoughts: 1. heavy rain did not materialize for Galveston and Houston last weekend. Instead, a lighter rainfall occurred. 2. The Southwest experienced much warmer than normal conditions from Monday through Friday. Phoenix reached 90° on February 25th, its fourth earliest such temperature on record. Tucson tied its high for the year, so far, with a temperature of 86° on February 24 and February 25. 3. No significant (6” or above) snowstorms occurred in Washington, DC to Boston or in the major Great Lakes cities (Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Toronto).