Rjay

Our new 30 year averages played a big role in going more than -1.

FRG has 2.25-ish

4.25"

I'm going -1.5. I usually don't go negative and for good reason so we'll see.

DCA -1.5 NYC -1.5 BOS -1.5 ORD -1.0 ATL -1.5 IAH +2.0 DEN +1.0 PHX +1.5 SEA 0.0

What did they predict? 3-6"?

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday, bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas. By midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of the central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

What's a little disagreement between the meso models *shrug*

Not really sure what's happening here but sure lol

It was clear and they were well north of the front. The clouds came in an hour after they hit 32 and temps rose.

Gfs at hour 24 (and to be fair is does retrograde good bit) Rgem at hour 24 This is kinda ridiculous.

I just don't know how anyone can be confident in track. I'm not leaning one way or another right now. This tuck track is a damaging track and there won't be too much notice if models come into agreement late in the game.

I know. Last 2 runs have both jumped west of the previous run.

Models continue to bounce around. Last 10 runs of the rgem.