snowman19

The EPS and GEFS did a very good job at range predicting the big Nino 3.4 cooling this month

I agree. I really think I may have been wrong with my cold-neutral call and we actually see an official La Niña

Yes it does bias towards a -ENSO, which is why I’m starting to agree with your musing that we may actually see a weak La Niña instead of just cold-neutral, which has been my guess up to this point

Were those winters +PNA winters or -EPO/-PNA winters. -PNA/-EPO can still certainly be cold. Just because there may be a dominant -PNA doesn’t automatically mean warm

This is the strongest -PMM signature we’ve seen in many years. The odds of a weak La Niña are definitely increasing….

2nd year -ENSOs very strongly support predominantly -PNA winters. There’s multiple studies showing that. As far as ENSO 1+2, it basically has been in an El Niño state for months and still is. It appears a Modoki/central-based cold-neutral or weak La Niña event is developing

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over

I mean evidently something other than the NAM/AO is driving it. What exactly it is I don’t know. Change in ocean currents, circulations (marine heatwaves)? Solar/geomag related? I’m sure someone with more knowledge than me can probably give better insight

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

Arctic sea ice is already at record low levels and we have until mid-late September before the ice melt normally stops per climo…..

Yep. And in other shocking news….MJO phases 5-6-7 are dominating again. Groundhog Day

@Stormchaserchuck1 @bluewave Speaking of the IO….the new EURO guidance is insisting on a solid negative IOD