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About snowman19

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  1. Solar cycle, El Niño and La Niña: https://www.universetoday.com/35133/solar-cycle-triggers-la-nina-el-nino-like-climate-shifts/
  2. People are being way too fast to declare this Niña a dud. The EWB has yet to even hit. People made this same mistake last year with the Nino, right around this time, saying a weak or moderate Nino was favored and we all know what happened in the end. Absolutely nothing right now supports La Nada and everything still supports a moderate event despite what the models may show happening
  3. The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response
  4. The 60’s also had the strong -PDO cycle but featured strong -AO/-NAO winters. The difference now IMO is the ridiculously ++AMO and AGW. It’s also possible that the record low arctic sea ice is playing some sort of role. Over the last decade, Judah’s Siberian snowcover buildup (SAI) has been totally useless predicting the NAM/NAO states. Other things like solar cycle, QBO, tropical forcing, ENSO states and volcanism also have roles, but they also had roles in the 60’s…..something obviously changed in a big way @40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?
  5. The ensembles are still suggesting a very strong high pressure regime setting up over the North PAC, if this is correct, it would support strong trade winds going into July with obvious ENSO effects and also supports continuation of the strong -PDO…..
  6. Just keep in mind that this is before the projected easterly wind burst which would cause upwelling and cooling
  7. I think once the enhanced trades get going we see pretty substantial upwelling and cooling. This burst coming up looks like it means business. But yea, watch and see for now
  8. Great stuff as always. I know you are also of the opinion that if this La Niña “gets going” and it appears that it is now, it should have no problem going moderate. From what I see, it appears that we are definitely all systems go into July
  9. Support is growing for MJO convection moving into the Maritime Continent, which is favorable for La Niña strengthening going into July. This would increase trade wind bursts/EWBs and raise the SOI. Just looking at the overall synoptic picture, everything else (tropical instability waves, -PDO, -PMM, high pressure building in the North Pacific, IOD taking on a negative signature) is favorable for continued Niña development
  10. There is a theory that solar max actually supports Nina’s and solar min supports Ninos. Why? Solar max = more radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = stronger trade winds = La Niña. Solar min = less radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = weaker trade winds = El Niño
  11. @Stormchaserchuck1 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading a study several years ago that correlated a June tripole in the Atlantic to a -NAO winter. I forget the exact details, but basically it argued a very strong correlation to a tripole showing up in June, then “going away” and resurfacing by winter. It showed that the anomalies sink underneath the surface after June then come back to the surface in winter. I assume the inferno SSTs around New Foundland right now is definitely not what we want to see, nothing even close to any semblance of a tripole so far this month
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