snowman19

Looks like yet another JB predicted Modoki El Niño epic fail incoming….this would be the 2nd year in a row. You’d think the guy would just retire at this point lol

Congratulations

@bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event?

Not only is a rare 3rd year La Niña looking more likely, the models are getting stronger with it….maybe related to the very strong -IOD event being forecasted…..

Extremely doubtful that there ever would have been a Niña in 2016 had it not been for that very strong -IOD event

Also, going to be +QBO assuming a normal progression

This is going to be a very interesting year I think, not going to be very many analogs…possible very rare 3rd year (Modoki?) La Niña, possible record -IOD event, likely -PDO/-PMM continuing as well as record warm Atlantic SSTs along and off the SE coast also likely to continue

Yes, if the models are correct, this -IOD event may be one of the strongest in history, possibly even the strongest

Continuing to look increasingly likely that we see a very rare 3rd year La Niña this upcoming fall and winter. Looks to possibly be a Modoki La Niña taking shape:

Going to be a rough 8 months coming up for you until December then I guess

Snow isn’t getting anywhere near the I-95 corridor tomorrow

Yes, a 3rd year La Niña is starting to definitely look likely:

My allergies are the worst they’ve ever been in my life. It started the week of St. Patrick’s Day and have been relentless ever since. My allergist just had to change my prescriptions yesterday afternoon

Pretty good agreement among all ensembles now that the pattern breaks come mid-month. It may get quite warm mid-April and beyond with that SE ridge flex. I have a feeling we are in for some early season heat come May

Yep, even for the 40’s-80’s colder time frame, April, 1982 was very highly anomalous, a true fluke month