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snowman19

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    Rockland County

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  1. Yes, very clear La Niña circulation in place, both atmosphere and ocean. Dare I say even more so than last year when we had an official weak La Niña. It took awhile but we have finally seen the PDO flip to negative. All models are now at least cold-neutral for this winter, a couple of them flip us into a La Niña now
  2. I still think cold-neutral this winter but if this keeps up, we may go into a very weak La Niña in region 3.4. The ocean, atmosphere and feedbacks are very clearly in cold La Niña mode. We have had a flip to a rather robust -PDO since April. Will be interesting to see how the next few months play out...
  3. It was cold and snowy for the northeast of course, remember the "polar vortex" hysteria that winter? JB decided back in April that this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter for the northeast. He was also convinced that we were going to be deep into a west-based/Modoki El Niño at this point in time. Just like the movie Groundhog Day, he's a broken record, hit the repeat button. Same cold/snowy forecast for the northeast every year from him
  4. The atmosphere/ocean is still clearly in La Niña mode; enhanced trade winds, PDO going solidly negative, subsurface cold pool appearing below region 3.4, SSTs dropping in that region....Question is do we stay cold-neutral (La Nada) or do we go back into a La Niña for the 2nd winter in a row? My money is still on cold-neutral this winter. If we were to go back into a Niña, I can't imagine it being more than very weak
  5. Cold-neutral (La Nada) can have some very similar effects as a weak La Niña would. Speaking just from an ENSO standpoint, I think an official weak La Niña, even a very weak La Niña is not happening this winter. I've been touting cold-neutral for a couple of months now, and other than the CFS, all the other models are in agreement with that
  6. https://mobile.twitter.com/ccdeditor/status/897070893922430977 Don't know what they are looking at, but we are not going into another La Niña. Cold-neutral? Yes. But La Niña? Nope, not in my opinion. The only model showing a weak La Niña is the CFSV2. All the other models are cold-neutral
  7. Back in March and April Joe Bastardi was throughly convinced that we were going to see a moderate to strong west-based/Modoki El Niño; we are heading for a cool-neutral La Nada now. Over the last 3 years, he's been absolutely horrible
  8. Just to add, besides the continued enhanced easterly trade winds, here is why I am favoring a cool-neutral ENSO this winter, look at the subsurface cold pool that has formed beneath region 3.4 and will upwell with the persistent strong trades:
  9. Honestly, I think this winter is going to be very hard to predict, oscillation wise. -QBO with low solar does typically favor more blocking. I guess consideration also has to be given to the long term -AMO phase we have entered. One thing is for sure, the ENSO region 3.4 warm pool has completely and totally collapsed, as has any hope for even a very weak El Niño this winter. In fact, a cold pool has now appeared in the subsurface through that region. Going to be a tough winter forecast I think...
  10. Still early but I think we can count on a few things. -QBO, low solar, La Nada (coolish-neutral) and -PDO, the PDO has been dropping very consistently and deliberately since early April and we now have a pronounced, robust -PDO configuration in the Pacific. I made sure my preliminary analog list were all years with a La Niña the previous winter; due to the influence of residual lag effects, which I believe we are seeing now with the continued cooling of ENSO region 3.4 in the long range and rather healthy easterly trade winds
  11. A very, very early stab at some possible analogs for this upcoming winter (assuming La Nada/cool-neutral, negative PDO, and negative QBO), all following a La Niña the previous winter: 1956-1957, 1989-1990, and 2012-2013
  12. Some (very) early factors as of now going into this winter: 1. ENSO - An almost guaranteed La Nada/neutral following an established La Niña last winter. Right now I'm favoring "cool-neutral", models continue to cool region 3.4 with every run. 2. PDO - steadily dropping toward negative since early April, now clearly negative and rather robustly negative from an SST configuration standpoint. 3. AMO - negative and continuing to grow even more strongly negative as North Atlantic SSTs continue to cool. Pretty good evidence it has entered its long term negative phase. 4. QBO - negative (easterly) and looks to remain so for winter. 5. Solar - low solar activity/low solar cycle. Obviously way too early to look at snowcover and icecover and even come October, there are very, very serious doubts about using them to predict the winter AO state. Huge, monumental fails with that the last several winters.
  13. The models have been showing the cooling in region 3.4 for awhile now. The downturn with the enhanced trades is not a surprise. I'm starting to think neutral-negative for this winter. We should have a better idea come early fall, but my money is on neutral-negative right now.
  14. I'm feeling more confident now that we do not see an El Niño this winter. None of the ENSO indicators are lining up for an El Niño, even a weak one. The trend in the models has not only been to back off on an El Niño for the past couple of months, but also to cool things down in region 3.4. A La Nada looks extremely likely at this point. Whether it's a "cool-neutral" or a "warm-neutral" remains to be seen, that should become clearer as we head into early fall.
  15. Great banter contribution to what was a serious discussion