snowman19

I would be in total shock if this event goes strong over the next 2 months but there are still mets who think it does:

This is the last push of strengthening, probably through late November/early December then we start marching toward neutral. Then the warming really starts to pickup this coming spring….probably in an El Niño by late summer IMO

I was a kid for that storm, the thing I remember besides helping my Dad shovel was the extremely heavy snowfall rates. It had to be 2-3 inches+ per hour for a few hours at one point during that storm, definitely some of the heaviest snow I ever saw in my life

Looks like a moderate peak is a good call:

If that’s correct….if….then December most likely ends up colder and snowier than normal

@40/70 Benchmark This Niña is definitely basin wide now. Every region is solidly in a Niña

No need to curse. I don’t have an agenda. My opinion is that 2000-2001 is the best analog for this winter despite the QBO and PDO. I think we can all agree that winter was not a torch and given the winters over the last 7 years since 2015 I think everyone would take it and run

Yea I was going to say, not really sure how that looks stormy and wet

@40/70 BenchmarkAre you also seeing a possible warm to very warm (torch?) November? Some of the models are showing a shift to eastern IO forcing starting the end of this month and in November

Just be patient, you will get your Modoki El Niño next winter. IMO this Niña isn’t going officially neutral/La Nada until the beginning of April give or take. This is a very healthy Niña event (which I believe is going to be solidly moderate) we are in the midst of right now

How many times do I have to tell you I don’t think it’s going strong? 20? 30? I have said moderate all along and possibly high end moderate since July and I believe it’s going to peak come late November or December

And besides region 4 being cold, this Niña is about to strengthen, there are still extremely cold subsurface anomalies and there is yet another very strong Easterly Wind Burst in progress:

He’s not my “buddy” and who cares at this point? It’s not east-based, Nino region 4 is solidly in a La Niña and has been for months.

If there was any question whether or not the Hunga Tonga eruption will reach the northern hemisphere’s stratosphere by winter, that has now been answered. The only question that remains is what effect will this have on the SPV?