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About snowman19

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    Rockland County

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  1. Not surprising but the Euro is back to an all rain event just like all the other 12z guidance is. The only hope to get snow out of this is for the storm to bomb like hell with very strong lifting so it can dynamically cool. There is just no cold around to be had Friday, even north and west of the city
  2. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    We’ll see what happens the next 14 days, I think the 3/2 storm is a rain event. 3/6-3/7 is debatable. IMO the weekend of 3/10-3/11 is it for winter. I think we are torching come the following weekend (St. Patrick’s Day weekend)
  3. March 2018 Model Discussion

    The major lack of cold air problem I cited yesterday for the 3/2 storm is well apparent, unanimously so far on all 12z model runs; GFS, CMC, ICON, UKIE. We’ll see what the new Euro does, but so far the only model that showed a major snowstorm for the metro area was the operational Euro last night
  4. Yes. The cold isn’t there for 3/1-3/10. You will need a low to absolutely bomb and dynamically cool the column with strong UVVs to get snow
  5. All guidance has the North Pacific ridge retrograding and the -NAO breaking down. That is a big torch signal come mid March. The CFS is getting warmer and warmer with each run for March and we are merely days away now. As far as the early March pattern, it’s not cold, it’s just normal early March temps. There is no arctic air anywhere near us. Cold air is going to be a problem for March 1-10. A real big problem. There is a very good possibility we come out of it with very little snow despite all the hype
  6. I can easily see us getting through the early March (3/1-3/10) period with minimal snow and just normal temps before we loose the blocking and torch starting around mid March
  7. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    The signal just keeps getting stronger and stronger for March turning very warm for mid and late month https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/967055521290301442?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^0 https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/967055521290301442/photo/1
  8. February 2018 Model thread

    We agree! The early March pattern actually supports major suppression, not a cutter and it would not surprise me if us and New England get minimal snow out of it. And yea, the writing is definitely on the wall with all guidance, the pattern breaks down mid-March and it most likely torches
  9. February 2018 Model thread

    Something needs to happen (winter wise) by 3/10. You can already see a big torch pattern loading by then with the retrograde and -NAO breakdown on all guidance for mid March and beyond
  10. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    It better hurry up and do something while there’s still time! We’re less than a week away from the start of met spring now. As in by 3/10. There is a HUGE signal for a massive torch coming into the east for mid through late March. Very strong signal actually. -NAO breaks down, PAC retrogrades. https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/966661695430066176?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^0 https://mobile.twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/966395023335051265
  11. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Watching PB bust hard was the best. Hopefully he got some humility now. It was beautiful
  12. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Greetings! How did everyone enjoy the epic February torch? I guess the cold, get ready for the arctic freezer trough “opined” didn’t work out so well....
  13. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Don’t know about a full on torch, but I certainly would not bet on cold and snowy, just based on the last 40 years of La Niña March climo alone. In any March, once you get past March 1st, the clock really starts ticking for our latitude. Sun angle, length of day and climo all start working against you with each passing day. Once past the 15th, you really start fighting a huge uphill battle for cold and snow; by then you have the equivalent of a September sun
  14. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Not really understanding some of these calls for a very cold and snowy March, given the Niña. If you go back over the last 40+ years, you can count on one hand all the cold and snowy La Niña Marchs’ on the east coast