snowman19

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

The October sun angle was the end of February

Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm

End of March, March “cold”, strongly positive NAO, best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm. That’s going to be a really good trick

Yep and the 1980’s and 1990’s worked out so well for us, worst 2 decades in history lmaooo

Torch time

Not really that bold. Look at the week after St. Patrick’s Day. Still a very positive NAO. If there was a -NAO block showing up like last year, and the last few March’s, then you have an argument. Once you get to 3/15, climatology alone at our latitude says it’s over minus a freak event and even then, how many major snowstorms have hit the NYC metro area after that date, in history? It gets even worse by 3/20, Equinox. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, long days. And late March “cold” is totally different than winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) cold. Our average temps are skyrocketing at that point. “Cold” compared to average isn’t all that cold

Look at the end of next week

Classic torch end of next week. Enjoy. Winter’s last gasps were this week. Fat lady is singing, it’s over Johnny, say goodnight and goodbye, ship is sailing

Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. That’s not what I said stop misquoting me. I said after the 1st week of March, it was done. It’s really is meaningless what you see, all winter long you were cancelling winter then bringing it back

There is a big warm up coming though. Starting this weekend (tomorrow) right through St. Patrick’s Day, over a week

That is what I’m talking about. That’s a horrible map, it’s including sleet as snow, grossly overdone and not even close. Those 10:1 ratio maps are junk. Here’s the real snow map: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030718&fh=84

No it wasn’t a thump of snow. The 10:1 ratio “snow” maps are severely, grossly overdone. Real bad. It counts sleet as snow. Look at this, this is the actual snowmap: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030712&fh=84

Where in my post did I say it can’t snow after the 20th? It can and has. That wasn’t the point. The point was ‘a really good’ winter pattern developing come March 20th. That would be the problem right there. It’s spring at that point. It’s not Nov 20th or Dec 20th or Jan 20th, or even Feb 20th, it’s March. At our latitude. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, climatology fighting you, length of day fighting you. Time to realize, winter’s days are numbered

A “really good” pattern possibly developing March 20th (Equinox)? Too little, too late. We’re not at Canada’s latitude