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About snowman19

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    Rockland County

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  1. The UKMET is nothing either. This is the GGEM vs the world right now
  2. Kiss of death.....
  3. Yes, Fort Kent, Maine should do well with that look...
  4. January 2011 is when the blocking completely broke down that winter (10-11). The blocking slowly started to breakdown around mid-month, then by the end of January it was completely gone and never came back again, right through April. Had the blocking stayed around, we almost certainly would have surpassed the 95-96 winter’s snowfall record, we were well on our way in mid January, 2011 before it all collapsed
  5. The weeklies are now showing what Isotherm was talking about for January with the forcing shifting and the pattern going to a classic La Niña look
  6. It’s a total miss but so was every model including the EPS for the Saturday storm until the Thursday runs....
  7. Isotherm was hinting at the same thing, January and especially February going above normal to well above normal. Usually March’s in Nina’s are above normal as well (front end loaded)
  8. Agreed. Gotta be in Orange County for this one
  9. The new 12z model runs would agree with you, this is strictly an Orange County north event. EPS has been showing this as a northern event for days
  10. This looks like a 2-3 inch snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday morning even down in Rockland, Bergen, Westchester and Passaic. We almost certainly wake up to WWAs tomorrow morning
  11. The new SREFs seem to support the NWS view in that discussion of fronto banding developing over the city and to the east of it. If that actually happens, areas to the NW of NYC may underachieve. There’s going to subsidence and dry air entraining to either side of where that frontogenic band sets up, especially on the NW side of it. Like I said before, the highest bust potential is NW of NYC, in particular west of 287. That 2-4/3-5 inches being expected now (Bergen, Rockland, Passaic, Orange) could easily turn into 1-2/1-3 inches instead. It’s going to be a big nowcast tomorrow....
  12. It probably starts off very light around 7am or so. It looks like 10am to 4pm for the steady/heavier snow then it shuts down very quickly thereafter. Some left over snow showers and flurries tomorrow evening with clearing overnight
  13. Yea, probably very light until around 10 or so, it probably really gets going after that, winds down to snow showers tomorrow evening. I think Upton is going to have to adjust accumulations higher north and west of NYC this evening. Very unlikely that the Euro is wrong this close in. It looks like a general 3-6 inch plowable snow tomorrow, even up into Orange County
  14. He busted pretty bad and he did get pissy with a few people. Before 12z yesterday, he was on the 0 accumulation train. He normally is pretty accurate though