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About snowman19

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  1. As depicted by the models, if what they show is how it progresses, the cool down looks very transient, namely PNA and NAO; those are not true blocks setting up
  2. To add, 95-96 was a first year La Niña, coming off an El Niño the previous winter, so you were dealing with some lag effects/El Niño hangover. This year, we have a 2nd year, strengthening La Niña that some models now even push toward moderate territory come December, we shall see
  3. The PDO was strongly positive at this time back in 1995, the QBO was also positive at this time and it turned weakly negative during that winter
  4. Based on the latest SST plots, it’s dropping fast. Note all the ongoing cooling all along the west coast and GOA and the warming in the western/central Pacific. https://a.scpr.org/i/a948c17921abed55af27309db2eb900c/110103-full.jpg
  5. 7 day change yes, I should have stated that, the progression is important though because it shows where we are heading. Here is the current look:
  6. True about the current AMO look. My post only dealt with the PDO progression, which has been consistently dropping to negative since April and now appears to be on an accelerated course for negative, for the reasons I stated above. I don’t remember seeing a Pacific that’s looked like this since 2012:
  7. This is very true. I posted the link for HM’s article on the role the QBO plays during La Nina’s above. Basically, positive vs negative QBO during a La Niña winter makes a huge difference
  8. Posted this in the NYC forum, but here is an article written by HM a few years ago on the QBO state during a La Niña. You get totally different results during winter when you have a -QBO/La Niña (this year) versus a +QBO/La Niña: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1
  9. This was brought up yesterday in the New England forum but HM wrote an extensive article on the QBO and La Niña winters. Years with a -QBO and a La Niña (what we have now) support a displaced further south and flatter North Pacific High/Aleutian Ridge. This results in downstream troughing/polar vortex over Alaska. Here is the link to the article: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1
  10. Here is the 7 day sst anomaly change, major cooling ongoing along the west coast, GOA, off Baja and across the ENSO regions. If this continues into November, it may be a signal of a full scale -PDO regime going into this winter
  11. I may have spoke too soon assuming a low solar winter...
  12. Closer look at the new Euro monthlies, temp & precip for this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar): https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/917356329760710657
  13. February and March are total blow torches, but December and January look to have the cold focused over the Rockies, northern plains, upper midwest and Great Lakes. Certainly not a torch for those 2 months, but it doesn’t look all that cold here verbatim...
  14. From BAMWX:
  15. I don’t have access myself but here is what I just read on twitter. From Brett Anderson: “Based on new European model 500 mb projections, core of Arctic cold this winter would be focused over western half of #Canada”. From Ben Noll: “New ECMWF seasonal guidance holds steady on forecast of weak-mod La Nina during boreal winter 2018: Nino 3.4 bottoms out near -1.0°C in Dec. The model has trended cooler across the U.S. northern tier in Dec-Feb & is particularly wet (snowy?) northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, OHV. Meanwhile, mild temp anomalies extend from Southeast into New England, cooler west of Appalachians. Wetter (snowier?) in interior Northeast.”