snowman19

This looks more and more like a neutral/La Nada coming up by the day. The atmospheric indicators are not even close to getting into El Niño mode and the SST and subsurface temps, thermocline are not indicative at all of an upcoming El Niño event. All the models have been consistently backing off on the El Niño idea

Can you say flooding?

My window a/c units are going back in this weekend. 80's next week is starting to look increasing likely

Getting the feeling that this is going to be an extremely humid summer unfortunately. Heavy spring rains, high soil moisture, tends to create a positive feedback loop, through evaporation, etc. I don't think it's going to be as hot as last summer but the humidity will make up for it. Probably above normal for temps but not like the previous summer. I hope I'm wrong...

The severe weather threat looks legit

It looks like a widespread 3-4 inches of rain for the northeast this week. Flooding is going to become a very real possibility and flood prone areas need to start preparing now. This pattern is no joke. Deluge coming it would appear

I hope you are enjoying your rain today and the 5 minutes of that "ripping" sleet mixed with rain you got last night. Still calling for snowstorms I see. Lol. How many times and fails is this for you now over the last few weeks? You thinking next weekend is going to be a snow event is laughable. It's April. You need 850mb to be at least -2 to -3 and 700mb to be at least -4 to -5 for snow this time of the year. And you will have to overcome major boundary layer issues. Good luck with that :-)

Look at the soundings right now. Besides the boundary layer being torched, 850mb and 700mb are torched too, so aloft sucks for frozen as well. This is a textbook rain sounding for late March/early April. So even if this were to start very briefly at the onset as a few sleet pellets mixed with rain, this is for all intents and purposes, an all rain event for the entire NYC metro area, even areas north and west of the city limits

Who is predicting sleet for Long Island? I'm up in Rockland County (Sloatsburg), 35 miles northwest of the city, and the NWS has us as all rain, no mention of sleet even up here. The soundings certainly don't support sleet for us, let alone the city and Long Island

Even up by you the best you are going to see is sleet mixing in with rain. Look at how far north the 0 degree 850mb line is, plus you have a mid-level warm punch at 750mb, that is not a snow sounding at all, maybe sleet up by you, definitely not snow. The boundary layer is also obviously a major issue. This is an all rain event for everyone south of your area

There in lies the problem, there will be a mid-level warm nose tomorrow

Not even remotely close

Friday night looks like we will have torrential downpours at times. Heading over to my aunt's house later on this afternoon to make sure the sump pump in her cellar is working. Probably going to be localized flooding in places throughout the metro area Friday night

The worst accident I ever saw was a double fatal unfortunately on the New York State thruway one morning near Suffern when I was on my way down to Nanuet, two summers ago I believe. A drunk driver decided to go the wrong direction (south in the northbound lanes) at like 7am. He hit another car head on at about 70mph, killing them both instantly. It was horrific, both cars looked like a missile hit them

None of that is snow on that "snowmap" anywhere near our area, it's all rain