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About snowman19

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  1. It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO
  2. It gives New England nothing now. You can see the block press. It is nothing like the Ukie or CMC
  3. Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared
  4. Sure was, it was a huge bust, as was several other storms the last couple of winters it overamped. It just drives this storm right into a block like it doesn’t exist. I think the CMC is too far north as well, but the Ukie is just asinine
  5. The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out
  6. This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that
  7. You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real
  8. This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario
  9. But the last several years, we had a +NAO which allowed the SER to flex and that’s why we kept seeing the last minute “north trend” we never had a west based -NAO block pressing down. The flow is also screaming across the CONUS next week, this is only going to get so far north before it hits a brick wall. That block means business, it’s not going to let the SER flex and cause a north trend. I think the threat is suppressed, not trending further north
  10. Extremely unstable/convective right now. Cumulus congestus and snow showers, very cold mid-levels. Light dustings in spots
  11. Agreed. Next week’s synoptic setup has suppression written all over it, unless things change big time, I can’t envision a cutter
  12. I feel the same way, it’s a suppression threat, the jet on roids, the block, this could very well miss us to the south. I think a cutter would be extremely unlikely
  13. It looks like the threat next week is suppressed, not cutter, given the -NAO block position and northern branch jet configuration
  14. After last winter’s debacle, I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them. They were just dreadful, they kept showing a great pattern that never materialized, so many people got burnt by them
  15. @bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO region