snowman19

#Modoki La Niña

You can pretty much see exactly where the ridge in the North PAC is going to want to setup this winter lol Those SSTs around the Aleutians are on fire and they are going to positively feedback into the Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridging would not be much of a surprise given the La Niña:

I don’t think ENSO goes neutral until spring. The Niña should peak moderate around December

This is disturbing…showing the current dry pattern continuing into Nov-Jan:

I’m curious to see if it has typical 1st year “volcanic stratosphere” effects this coming winter in the northern hemisphere or something out of the ordinary happens

I see how dry you guys are and I honestly don’t know how the NYC metro area isn’t under an official drought by now. Soil moisture is so low right now it’s not funny. Lawns are brown and one of the nearby rivers where I live is so low you can see the bottom, as along as I can remember (almost 30 years) I have never, ever seen this river this low. I used to fish in it as a kid. The dryness up this way has been staggering

There are some similar analogs to this year (-PDO, Niña, -IOD, +QBO) but they were not 3rd year triple dip Nina’s and not sure of the Niña structure in those, whether or not they were Modoki events like we have now

@40/70 Benchmark Were the all of the previous 3rd year Nina’s Modoki like this one?

If you look to the Southern Hemisphere, this may be the first glimpse at the effects of the Tonga Hungarian volcanic eruption and its unprecedented release of water vapor into the stratosphere will have on this upcoming winter in the Northern Hemisphere:

A little more detail:

In his defense, a “pro” met (I won’t mention JB’s name) has been predicting a Modoki El Niño for the past 2 years in a row. This year, he got the Modoki part right but it’s just not an El Niño

Just read on twitter, he’s hyping 1964-1965 too……1954-1955, 1964-1965….and I’m sure 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 next….let’s just find the east coast’s coldest and snowiest official La Niña winters and hype them as being “great analogs” and “perfect matches” to this year. Snake oil salesman. JB is no longer taken seriously by anyone, his game is old. It’s gotten to the point where it’s embarrassing and he should retire. It’s a mockery of meteorology

I doubt a strong peak too, however, I can easily see this thing peak moderate come December.

1979-1992 was a horrible stretch for the NYC area on north into New England. The biggest storm in that entire 13 year period was the Megalopolis storm during the super El Niño in ‘83. That was basically it. It was a snow drought for that area, just cold with basically nothing to show for it

The 40’s-50’s winters were great out west, the 60’s-70’s winters were epic for the east coast, then came 1979-1992, which was probably the worst 13 year period in history for snow on the east coast, even up in the NYC metro and New England….

By November his main analogs will be 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. He uses them everytime there’s a La Niña. I can’t believe people actually pay money to read that utter quack

Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But:

Just to add:

I actually agreed with you about 2000-2001 being an analog and that December was not mild nor is that winter considered mild overall and March had one of the biggest blizzards of all time in parts of New England so not sure what the slight was for. But ok

@Volcanic Winter The volcanic aspect of this coming winter:

No

This has low ACE Atlantic hurricane season written all over it:

Still very early but there are some signs that the AO/NAO may not cooperate. Again very early but 1) the Atlantic SSTA profile is not suggestive of -NAO, no semblance of a “tripole”, nor has there been this year, 2) possible low ACE Atlantic hurricane season? 3) high solar 4) Modoki Nina/+QBO, when accompanied by high solar you rarely see SSWs and it generally favors a colder stratosphere 5) volcanic stratospheric effects, unknown what effects the record amount of water vapor spewed into the stratosphere will have but we had a major tropical volcanic eruption this year (January) that reached the stratosphere none the less and the first year after an eruption normally results in +AO. This all is definitely not screaming arctic and Atlantic high latitude blocking to me but we’ll see….

If the models are correct, we are ENSO-neutral and warming come April, assuming that’s correct, a Nino would be a definite possibility by next summer/fall