snowman19

The EPS and op Euro want no part of it at all

It’s onto something IMO, every storm this winter has bumped north, every single one has had a north trend due to the models severely underestimating the SE Ridge

That’s actually not a good look. The EPO is raging positive, the PAC floodgates are going to be wide open and you’re going to have Pacific maritime air flooding Canada, all that -NAO would do is trap PAC garbage

Yep, it has 2 inches for Rockland and Bergen. Pretty much guaranteed Upton drops totals down

Remember when the ensembles said tomorrow was going to be suppressed? I’m telling you man, this one is going to end up turning to rain, the models aren’t giving enough respect to the SE Ridge pump again, plus the PNA is not in a favorable spot, the TPV orientation isn’t great either. Don’t get your hopes up with this SWFE, this has New England snow event written all over it. We start as snow, go to rain

Thursday/Friday is more SWFE and a New England snow event IMO. I don’t like the setup, besides the MJO being out of phase, which is going to allow the SE Ridge to really pump, the PNA looks nowhere near as favorable as it was for last Sunday’s big storm. Also, the TPV orientation is less than ideal. I think we go to all rain in the metro after a start with snow. The snowy models are underestimating the SE Ridge, again

Yep, this is quickly becoming a very minor event, especially NW of NYC. None of the new model runs have more than 2-3 inches total for my area now. The NAM is on drugs

The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC

I think this one is done coming NW, the models are coming back from the overcorrect. You had the suppression earlier on in the week which was dead wrong, then the models corrected when they realized they underestimated the SE Ridge, we saw an overcorrection yesterday and this morning, now they have evened out, the RGEM just came east from its far west track earlier. I can easily see an eastern NYC and LI jackpot here. The 18z RGEM is actually matching up very well with the 12z EPS. I really don’t see this one becoming a NW suburb (Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, northern Westchester, Sussex, Sullivan) jackpot. NAM is too far west. Outlier

No Winter Storm Watch from Upton for Rockland, Orange, Northern Westchester or Passaic, or western Bergen County. They are calling for a very quick mover, 7am-2pm, 3-5 inches of snow total in my area (Rockland)

We aren’t going to see the same rates as the last storm and this thing is flying. 10-18 inches is a ludicrous forecast, also 13:1 or higher ratios is not happening

I would go 2-6 for the metro, the ridiculousness from some on twitter right now is out of control, this is not a 10-18 inch storm in the metro, no way, I’m sorry. You aren’t getting those kinds of snowfall rates in that very short period of time, we also aren’t seeing 13:1 ratios, that’s silly

There is going to be a limit to how much can fall due to the super fast flow. I think this is a general 2-6 inch snowfall for the metro. The NAM is overdone IMO

It’s basically a coastal scraper. And it’s frigging flying too. This thing is going to have the after burners going lol

I don’t think it’s a big storm, something like 2-6, more towards the coast/LI than inland, but a storm none the less,

It’s going to hit. Look at the t-storms blowing up in the SE, it’s going to pump the ridge and force it north

The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more

You can absolutely have a strong SE ridge along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s totally false, total bunk that a SE Ridge can’t co-exist along with a -NAO and -AO. It’s a fairy tale wishcast that the weenies spread on twitter, they need to start it with “Once upon a time, it’s impossible to have a SE Ridge and a -NAO”

Ask the new Euro ROTFLMFAOOO

The Ukie has been God awful this winter, terrible. It is now a huge outlier

Famous last words ;-)

Yea, I knew it was at least 27 inches in Sloatsburg around 10 last night and it was still going at that point. I can definitely believe 30 inches fell here

I’m in Sloatsburg, it’s easily 2 feet here, probably over 2 feet

Easily 2 feet + up here, still light snow, some sleet mixing in now. By far the biggest event since January, 2016. Well over 24 hours of steady snow

They throw them out every storm, January, 1996 too. I made that comment yesterday morning, it looked nothing at all like it does right now yesterday morning