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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Haven’t seen a drop here…
  2. snowman19
    It’s a miracle! Please, let’s go into a long-term drought!
  3. snowman19
    Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes?
  4. snowman19
    I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now
  5. snowman19
    I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway
  6. snowman19
    As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk
  7. snowman19
    No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X
  8. snowman19
    The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol
  9. snowman19
    Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters
  10. snowman19
    IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was
  11. snowman19
    This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October
  12. snowman19
    @GaWx My guess is that if the PDO stays negative he will say that and the +QBO “matches” 2010 and if there’s an above normal/high Atlantic ACE hurricane season, he will say that it matches 1995. So it’s the best of both worlds for him. If for some odd reason (in the very unlikely event) the PDO goes positive, all the better. Either way, 95 and 10 will be his analogs, you can see it now
  13. snowman19
    Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….
  14. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….
  15. snowman19
    “Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March
  16. snowman19
    Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
  17. snowman19
    I hate the heat and humidity but I’m rooting for upper 90’s with 80 degree dewpoints just because of him
  18. snowman19
    Reading on twitter now that the ash plume has reached over 70,000 ft. This is going to be an interesting one to follow
  19. snowman19
    It’s getting more impressive by the hour. Sulfate aerosol measurements are continuing to rise and it appears to be reaching the stratosphere
  20. snowman19
    @Volcanic Winter @bluewave Just to add, there is some speculation that this eruption may reach a VEI 6. Wouldn’t that be unprecedented to have 2 VEI 6 eruptions this close together? I know Hunga Tonga was a 6….
  21. snowman19
    This *could* potentially have big stratospheric implications….major tropical volcanic eruption ongoing. If this thing pumps enough sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, it could conceivably have effects on next winter’s SPV and NAM (AO) state. This needs to be followed closely @Volcanic Winter…
  22. snowman19
    If the models are overdoing this +IOD event, which is possible and we go into a -IOD, I think this La Niña explosively develops this summer and fall, should that happen, there’s a chance it becomes a record event (i.e. 73-74, 88-89). The ingredients, both atmospheric and oceanic are definitely there
  23. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like we hit the peak of this overperforming solar maximum cycle around October, sunspots maxing out. Looks to be a high solar/high geomag winter coming up, effects TBD….
  24. snowman19
    It feels like the middle of May this morning. And yea a taste of things to come. All the soil moisture evaporating out and doing its dirty work. We are in for a very humid and very hot summer IMO
  25. snowman19
    @Bluewave Growing support for east-west tracks and not recurving hurricanes/tropical storms. Haven’t seen that in awhile
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