snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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As far as the NAO, the New Foundland warm pool has formed again, as was already mentioned here. I think this winter is going to be highly dependent on the PAC again (goes without saying I know). The common theme on the seasonal models is the Aleutian ridge….does it go poleward or flat most of the winter? A -PDO is a given at this point, but how negative?
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A warm pool around the Aleutians makes sense. All the seasonal models are unanimously showing an Aleutian ridge this winter. It fits a normal canonical La Niña Aleutian ridge regime. They are also all maintaining a -PDO, strength TBD
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This is AFTER yesterday’s nor’easter. Didn’t even make a dent in the long term drought. The staggering dryness since late July continues. Soil moisture is just as abysmal. So much for BAMWX’s hype back in September that the MJO was going to initiate some crazy wet pattern in the east in October along with possible landfalling tropical systems…..
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There are signs that the SPV (which is weak right now) bottoms out in early November then starts to strengthen later on in the month….
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If I’m not mistaken a bunch of the -IOD/Nina years saw -NAO/-AO in November. It looks like at least early November is going to start with a weak SPV
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@Bluewave Thought you might find this interesting, it ties ocean current cycles in. Think arctic sea ice and solar also playing a role…
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I absolutely believe the seasonal models that this is going to be a northern branch dominated winter with a very muted/weak STJ. The deepening -PMM and Nina supports that projection
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@Gawx This has been quite the solar and geomag spike since August
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If the projected AK/GOA trough pattern continues into early November and continues to cool and erode the “warm blob” then we will have a real big SST analog divergence with 2013. Early November 2013 is when the warm blob came back with a vengeance and the PDO flipped into a Victoria mode and stayed locked in through the end of that winter
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If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing….
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The one main staple over the last several winters besides the negative ENSO tendency and reoccurring MJO phases has been the marine heatwave in the NW PAC around Japan. It’s been extremely anomalous
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This current -IOD is the strongest in 17+ years
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@Bluewave This may end up being the strongest storm/low in history for the Bering Sea….almost 950mb
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It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event
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One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative
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I still won’t be surprised if we finish around or just under 100 ACE for the season. If that happens, like I’ve said, using factors such as La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/+AMO, warm MDR as justification to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season need to be re-evaluated. Maybe things like solar cycle, etc. need to be figured in. It’s akin to how some were using the amazingly persistent ++AO since spring to argue for some big arctic sea ice recovery, which didn’t happen
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All you have to do is see the names and look no further….BAMWX, Mark Margavage, JB, Henry Margusity, Tony Pann, Mike Masco, severe-weather.EU…and you know it’s going to be hype about a very cold and very snowy winter
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NOAA/CPC has upgraded to a La Niña advisory today
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Yes. I saw a study (probably the one you’re referring to) years ago that tied IOD forcing into the WPO
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I don’t think anyone on here at least expected anything more than a weak La Niña
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16-17 was strong -IOD and a +NAO winter
