snowman19

2013 was low ACE for completely different atmospheric/SST reasons but yea this season looks very likely to be below average

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE

I’m also hedging toward cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña. That said, an official weak La Niña (ONI) would not shock me now

Basically agree. I’m not sure we see -EPO to the extent we did last winter, but otherwise yea. I would be absolutely shocked to see the level and persistence of cold we saw from the end of November through the beginning of March this coming cold season….

There isn’t a true difference between a weak Niña and a cold-neutral/Nada anyway. The emerging -IOD, -PDO, -PMM, +SOI, Nino 3.4 cooling/trades, MJO behavior and the MEI give me confidence that we will see a La Niña pattern regardless. 2nd year -ENSO’s are known for a more Niña like pattern

Look at this drop off in region 3.4. I’m starting to think we actually do see an official La Niña In other news…even though we are descending (slowly) from the solar max peak, the sunspots are still very active as is geomag

Bottom line, something very drastic changed in the global SSTA patterns, atmospheric long wave circulations/Hadley cells, QBO evolutions and arctic sea ice after the 15-16 super El Niño. Is solar/geomag playing some sort of role too? Maybe

Every attempt at a -AMO has failed miserably since 2015

This fall (Sept-Oct-Nov) has the potential to be really warm in the east and I believe possibly drier than normal too….

When Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan are seeing a lot of snow, it’s usually really bad news for the NYC metro area

Definitely don’t mention the 07-08 winter in the NYC forum, you’ll get rocks thrown at you lol But in all seriousness, that winter was a complete and utter disaster for snow south of New England. One of the all time worst for the NYC metro area in the last 30 years in fact…..it ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 and 19-20

Indeed. And I definitely agree with you that there is going to be a real strong tendency for -PNA this winter given the 2nd year -ENSO. Very extensive research supports this

IMO we are all lined up to see a well below average Atlantic hurricane season in both named storms and ACE

I have no doubt that if the blocking didn’t break down in February, NYC would have seen more snow that winter than the 95-96 winter and probably by a lot

La Niña cometh

The thing I remember most about the 10-11 winter was HM nailing that massive NAO/AO blocking over a month before it even happened. It was right around Halloween and he sounded the alarm that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major high latitude blocking was coming for December and January. And I know people are going to be shocked at this, but I have to give JB credit for accurately calling the complete breakdown of the blocking in February. Around mid-January he warned that winter was going to come to an abrupt end, over and done in the east in February and the NAO/AO were going to collapse and not come back again. The weenies were furious with him, wanted to rip him apart. He turned out to be right

@Stormchaserchuck1 Very interesting post/research on why the subsurface is arguing that this is likely going to be a 2nd year “double dip” La Niña:

13-14 was a “Victoria mode” SSTA pattern in the PAC. A Victoria mode resembles a +PDO in the SST signature way more than it does a -PDO. Even though 13-14 was technically a weak -PDO, the SST distribution resembled way more of a +PDO than it did a -PDO. In fact, if you looked at the SST maps from that winter you would think the PDO was positive @donsutherland1 @bluewave

It definitely looks like a more “traditional” -PDO in the NE PAC with the cold horseshoe from the GOA down the west coast of NA. What’s also very striking is how severely negative the PMM has become

While the MJO has definitely been active in phases 5-6-7 so far, it hasn’t been very strong/amplified like last summer was…..

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

As Ray has mentioned a few times, descending solar from a solar max peak is actually more hostile to NAO/AO blocking in winter than it is right at solar max peak

These dateline EWBs are causing central-based/Modoki La Niña events. This year is no different, dateline EWBs and ENSO 1+2 is and has been in a Nino. The last true east-based Niña event we had was 17-18.

I’m talking wide spread CONUS summer humidity/heat this extreme