snowman19

The same can be said every year. If this board were around for the 95-96 and 97-98 winters, I’m sure you would have had people saying 95-96 was going to be a warm and snowless winter because of the Niña and on the flip side, I’m sure you would have had the weenies trying to force a cold and snowy winter for the 97-98 super El Niño. There are biases at play every year

@Gawx Starting to wonder if we are seeing a secondary peak in this solar cycle

Very good call. It also looks dry as a bone which obviously is not good at all given the ongoing drought since the end of July

In theory, a -QBO should destabilize the tropical tropopause and cause a stronger, more robust MJO and on equator forcing/convection. Maybe this erratic behavior with the westward propagations and weak, low amplitude MJO waves is only temporary and will change as we go deeper into fall? Strong -IOD/La Niña playing a role? I’m honestly not sure besides saying to take a wait and see approach

The MJO waves have also been low amplitude unlike last year at this time when we were seeing strong waves and are projected to stay that way

The unusual westward MJO propagation continues

And on the PAC side, this -PDO cycle has been much stronger than the last one (1940’s-1970’s). I’ve seen a few articles blaming the record low arctic sea ice on this -PDO cycle

I think the question becomes when does the -IOD bottom out? Did it bottom out already or do we see another burst of strengthening in October. Either way the BOM and all models are projecting the -IOD event to continue the next few months. From the BOM: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 8 consecutive weeks, sufficient to be classified as a negative IOD event. The latest IOD index value for the week ending 14 September 2025 is −1.17 °C. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout spring, with a return to neutral in early summer. This is consistent with most international models assessed and the typical IOD life cycle.” https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=rnino34&period=weekly#tabs=Indian-Ocean

I don’t think we are going to see a big October burst in Atlantic tropical activity. This is how many months in a row now that people have been saying a big burst is coming? The finish line just keeps getting moved further and further forward in time. Now it’s October. This is becoming The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Eventually you have to acquiescence and admit defeat

@Stormchaserchuck1 IMO we are on the verge of finally going into a -AMO cycle

@Gawx

Also, a very strong -IOD signature here

It’s been insanely dry since the end of July

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic

Honestly, the most concerning thing, at least as far as snowfall is the drought. These typically aren’t easy to break, especially when in place for several months. They form a feedback cycle. And parts of the northeast are historically dry As far as the SE ridge, I think we do see much more SE ridging this time around due to the state of the Atlantic. BAMWX actually touched on this yesterday

I mentioned it a few days ago but the WPAC SST alignment matches previous years that saw a lot of +WPO. This -PDO cycle has been different than the last major -PDO cycle we saw (1940’s-1970’s), where where we now have the western North Pacific boiling, unlike back then

If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere