snowman19

There has definitely been an AO/NAO “disconnect” (they used to be positive together or negative together in the past) the last several years, whether it’s CC/arctic sea ice, possibly even solar cycle related is obviously open for debate. I read on twitter today that the new model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD for this fall. That anticipated -IOD/-ENSO combo, SST alignment, supports MJO 4-5-6-7 (“Niña like” phases) being dominant. Not that such low frequency forcing is any surprise given the last several years….

The thing I’m mystified at is the proposition that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña. You are talking about negligible difference in temps. I can’t get my head around that one

I think this Atlantic tropical season has tipped its hand….

If you read my post, I wasn’t referring specifically to 22-23 and 13-14. I was referring in general to the classification between cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña and a weak La Niña

Interesting that a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña would produce a completely different result than an actual weak La Niña, the classification between the two is basically negligible in the SST sense. 2013 was a “Victoria mode” PDO, which looked exactly like a +PDO but was *technically* a very weak -PDO. Certainly possible, but it has a lot of work to do to get there before met winter starts….

Persistent easterlies being modeled over the tropical Pacific this month….I think next month’s long range model updates are going to move further towards a La Niña event for this coming fall/winter…..

Low frequency forcing/MJO 5-6-7 still in the same familiar area (around Maritime Continent) as we go further into this month. The Niña background state remains

@Gawx

If anything, the -PMM has increased in strength…more support for a possible La Niña event this fall/winter:

Yea, the tweeter is actually a retired certified meteorologist lol Crazy right?

Agree. There are obviously exceptions to every rule but in general he’s correct. -ENSO/-PDO winters that don’t do well in November and December are *usually* abysmal

Despite the great patterns for retaining arctic sea ice, here we sit with this:

Skeptical hippo here that this is going to somehow magically turn into a very active Atlantic hurricane season with high ACE. I’m feeling confident sticking with my guess of below normal

This strongly supports the development of a Niña:

While I can definitely see periods of -EPO, I doubt we see the same persistence we saw last winter from the end of November through the beginning of March

Already said it, but I agree with you on -PNA this winter….2nd year -ENSO….very strong tendency. As far as the NAO being “super” positive, I doubt it, but I could definitely see a predominant +NAO this winter, especially if this SST alignment continues through fall, other factors (solar, geomag, lack of a tripole in June) we already talked about argue for that too

Yep, if you look back at the falls which preceded winters that featured very strong +NAO, that’s the SST alignment you will see. And if this continues into cold season, with the warm waters over by Iceland and Europe, and the cold south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, you can see exactly where the jet stream and very fast, zonal flow will be….right along that gradient of cold/warm waters

@Stormchaserchuck1 This is probably the most +NAO SST alignment I’ve seen in a long time. The cold SSTs from around/south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has preceded winters that saw predominate strong to very +NAOs and very fast, zonal flow in the Atlantic

I think we may actually approach a moderate La Niña on the RONI this coming fall/winter. I also believe there’s a good chance we see a weak La Niña on the ONI. A strong -PDO winter would not surprise me either

I think 2 things are blatantly obvious at this point…1) We are going to have a -ENSO winter, very likely weak La Niña regardless of what the “official” ONI number says 2) We are going to have a solidly (very possibly strong) -PDO winter….

This -PDO cycle has beat the 1940’s-1970’s severely negative cycle

Enjoy this cooldown while we still can….looks like we are all geared up for the next round of heat/humidity by mid-August. Verbatim, this is easily 90’s and this signal has been showing up since the end of July