snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I don’t think anyone on here at least expected anything more than a weak La Niña
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16-17 was strong -IOD and a +NAO winter
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Seems like it happens every year for the last several….this shows up in October/November, never to be heard from again until late March/April
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The way X is hyping this as a classic extratropical “nor’easter” is totally laughable. It very clearly has subtropical characteristics and should be classified as such
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Isn’t the point of this board to discuss all different ideas? If it’s that much of an issue, just say the word and I won’t post on here anymore
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@Stormchaserchuck1 Some NAO and AO musings
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@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….
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Verbatim that’s showing a very muted STJ which would not be a surprise at all
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@GaWx Have you seen the new EURO seasonal maps yet? I just read that they are out and are showing a prominent Aleutian ridge winter, but I have yet to see the actual maps posted
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The seasonal models are showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime. Not saying they’re right, but it would fit -ENSO climo
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It’s a kid playing meteorologist on social media. It’s become a playground for weenie mets looking for subscription money, likes, follows, views and retweets and children playing weatherman
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This solar cycle is really taking its time to descend. September finished with sunspots at 135 for the month and the flux that started in August continues
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The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point
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The -IOD is enhacing it
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Honestly, why even bother trying to fact check what that asshole says?
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This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…
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The new CANSIPS is showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime this winter
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Unlike last year when we had the strong +AAM, this year the AAM is ridiculously negative. We are very clearly in a La Niña atmospheric state this time around @bluewave @donsutherland1
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07-08 was a shit show south of New England
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This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition
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It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim
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Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update
