snowman19

[mention=564]Bluewave[/mention] Was your MJO fall indicator for winter September or October? So far, since spring the MJO waves have been very heavily favoring phases 5-6-7, but with nowhere near the record strength/amplitude we saw last year

If we do indeed flip to a -AAM regime along with -PDO and -ENSO/Nina, the CANSIPS for fall (SON) makes no sense

I’m expecting a -AAM dominant fall

I thought it would descend quicker than this, it’s definitely descending from last year, just not very fast

@Gawx This solar cycle is taking its sweet time to descend from the max….

2013 had a completely different system in place than we do this year that was suppressing Atlantic tropical activity, but yes, I remember that season well. When we got to the end of July, people were saying it was going to ramp up in mid-late August, then it was going to ramp up in September, then there was going to be a late season burst in October, which also didn’t happen….before we knew it, it was November and tropical season ended

This looks to continue well into August. I’m sticking with my previous idea that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up around, if not below 100 total ACE

Meant to tell you the other day but very good job in calling for the continuation of the -PDO regime and doubting an El Niño. You were one of the very few voices calling for a possible continuation of the -PDO and a 2nd year La Niña

If correct, that’s easily 90’s again

@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes the very beginning of the dry/warm pattern we expected to start for the fall. Looks very likely that the heat builds right back come mid-late August and it also looks like it drys out with the STJ dying as you expected

IOD and PDO are completely different entities

IMO the only reason we saw a La Niña winter back in 16-17 was the strong -IOD that developed at the end of summer and fall. If it wasn’t for that, it would have been a 2nd year El Niño winter

Yes, surprisingly for once it was too warm. Other that that lone exception, the long range modeling has been too cold in the east for almost 10 years now

Textbook -IOD developing @bluewave

I’m gaining more confidence with each passing day that this met fall (SON) is warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. I also see a risk for drier than normal as well; not to the level of last fall, which broke records, but drier than normal none the less

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

So far MJO phases phases 5-6-7 have been heavily favored. The difference between this year and last year is that the forcing hasn’t been as strong/amplified

Don’t ever quote Mark Margavage on here lol

Sure is and the new model runs keep getting stronger with the negative IOD this fall

Back in 2011, JB used the very active Atlantic hurricane season (19 named storms) as part of the reason for going with the cold/snowy eastern winter forecast he had….he also used the -QBO as his basis. We all know how that winter turned out. That winter was particularly painful for him as he kept insisting that arctic cold and snowstorms were right around the corner, from November through mid-February. It wasn’t until after Valentine’s Day that he finally admitted defeat and said his winter forecast was going to be a big bust

Interesting find. JB tries tying it into the NAO….high Atlantic ACE/-ENSO = -NAO winter. I have found zero convincing evidence in that regard. The PNA connection you found is interesting though

This is why I have been saying my thoughts about a cold-neutral may turn out to be wrong and we actually do see an official La Niña. Also, if you look at that subsurface signature, it’s definitely not arguing for an east-based event. Not saying it can’t change by the end of fall but that does not look like an east-based subsurface right now, (Nino 1+2 has been skewed warm for months) which may not really matter all that much if this -ENSO event stays weak…..

If the La Niña/cold-neutral is as weak as you speculate it will be, does it actually matter if the cold event is Modoki or east-based?

No, that supposed relationship between -ENSO and Atlantic ACE is extremely sketchy at best. The only one who really swears by it is JB because of the high ACE ‘95 Atlantic season that lead to the 95-96 winter. I have yet to see anything convincing. JB also insists that -SOI periods correspond to blocking and cold/snow in the east during -ENSO’s even though he knows full well that the -SOI relationship only works when there is +ENSO’s