snowman19

It’s kind of weird how Dr. Amy Butler, Judah Cohen and Jason Furtado are not hyping this up at all. Haven’t heard anything about HM getting on board for a big SSWE either. If this was imminent, you’d think one of them would be talking about it right now. We’ll see I guess

Maybe, but the brand new runs of the NMME, CFS and CANSIPS are showing what the GEFS EXT does. All we can do is wait and see

@Allsnow Edit: That’s a real account. I double checked the CFS/GEFS EXT/CANSIPS/NMME….that’s exactly what those new runs are showing for February. The EPS and GEFS are at odds of what the MJO is going to do. They are actually world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

@donsutherland1 Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@Allsnow Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@bluewave The GEFS and EPS are world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

Maybe, yes, but a February, 2018 SSWE redux? Lol I wish twitter and facebook lots of luck with that one, I think they’re going to need it…..

@CoastalWx You must be enjoying all of the out of control SSWE voodoo hype all over twitter and facebook right now. Spreading like wildfire. An exact replica/redux of February, 2018 is locked in and on the way lol

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Imagine if I posted a 222 hour operational model run on here showing a torch lol

All and I mean all of your snow hype since the end of November has been an epic, monumental bust. Miserable fail after fail. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

Haven’t we had a near non stop -EPO since the end of November? NYC has seen less than 10 inches of snow since then

It’s weakening because of the late bloomer La Niña strengthening and peaking in February. As soon as it hits the colder Niña waters and the very strong trades the convection is going to get sheared apart and run out of steam. I’m not so sure we’re going to see the MJO 8 effects you think it may. Maybe @donsutherland1 and @bluewave can chime in their thoughts here

So a -EPO, ridge wayyy west of the west coast. Zero Atlantic and arctic blocking. Raging positive NAO, no 50/50 low, +AO, negative PNA and the SE ridge flexing. Cutter and inside runner city. Enjoy the rain in NYC

We’ve been buckled up for these awesome snowstorm patterns and digital snow on the models since late November. Remember the phantom Thanksgiving snow “threat”? Then we were told to buckle up for December. Then it was buckle up for January. Then it was buckle up for early February, now it’s buckle up for mid-late February. I’m sure next it will be buckle up for March. We just keep kicking the snow can down the road. The goal posts and finish line just keep getting moved further and further ahead in time. On Saturday, we will go into February with less than 10 inches of snow for NYC, total, since November. While I will gladly admit I busted on the cold up to this point, did not see that level of cold coming, the snow hype has also been a huge bust, a miserable failure. It’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf for snow at this point….

Not really understanding the argument that the models are overdoing the SE ridge “again”. This is the 1st time the models are showing a SE ridge this entire winter/end of fall, and 2nd, up until this point, we haven’t had a SE ridge, it’s been totally non existent since the end of November. However now, as @bluewave has stated, it fits La Niña climo; with the big -AAM drop, EWBs and the very late Niña peak/strengthening into early February and MJO progression we are seeing

It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking

@40/70 Benchmark Remember back at the beginning of November when certain people said the La Niña was dead? Even suggesting that we were going to go warm-neutral? Even for a late bloomer Niña, this is ridiculous. It’s still going to the strengthening and peak in February

@Bluewave Big -AAM regime

At least so far this winter, we haven’t been chasing phantom SSWE mirages on the long range models

There’s nothing to stop the north trend. There’s no blocking, the NAO is going to be positive as hell at that point

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming