snowman19

I’ve seen some musings that the very low arctic sea ice of the last decade may be playing some role in the wintertime +NAO/+AO states we’ve been seeing

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO @40/70 Benchmark “Potential Link between PDO and Solar Cycles: Some studies suggest a possible connection between the PDO and solar activity on decadal timescales. The 11-year solar cycle may modulate the PDO, influencing its effect on atmospheric circulation. Research suggests that the PDO phase can amplify or dampen the atmospheric response to solar variability. For example, a study found that the intensification of the polar vortex during solar maximum conditions is significantly stronger in the negative phase of the PDO.”

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

We’ll see what happens over the next few months, but if a -IOD actually does form as the models are projecting, given the already negative PMM and PDO states, my guess is that any trade wind relaxation is temporary

The never ending +AMO

@bluewave Getting back to your point of repeating global weather patterns, if the summer/fall plays out this way, besides the continuation of the +AMO, we may see another *possible* central Atlantic “Nino” develop along with a “Modoki” La Niña, which have both become much more common over the last 10+ years:

My confidence is increasing in at least a cold-neutral, possible weak La Niña forming this summer/fall. It looks like a rather substantial -IOD is taking shape. That along with the -PMM, and -PDO is a red flag

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge. As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains

Agree. I think we are stuck in a -PDO decadal state for at least another year

Nothing is locked in for winter on June 1st

More of the same old. The extensive high pressure across the North Pacific is indicative of a continued -PDO regime. It’s definitely taking longer to switch modes than I thought it would. My guess is that we have at least another year to go before there is a full scale decadal change….

I made the huge mistake of thinking that Nino 2 years ago was actually going to behave like an El Niño. Boy was that thought wrong…

We have been stuck in a semi-permanent, default La Niña pattern for years now, even when we’ve had an El Niño, the background Niña state has still been there. It appears (at least so far) that we are following the exact same pattern again this year….

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

Everything was primed for -AO/-NAO high latitude blocking that winter. Textbook. Solar minimum, -QBO, Modoki El Niño, Atlantic “tripole”…..

To add to this:

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter