snowman19

I think the question becomes when does the -IOD bottom out? Did it bottom out already or do we see another burst of strengthening in October. Either way the BOM and all models are projecting the -IOD event to continue the next few months. From the BOM: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has now met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for 8 consecutive weeks, sufficient to be classified as a negative IOD event. The latest IOD index value for the week ending 14 September 2025 is −1.17 °C. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout spring, with a return to neutral in early summer. This is consistent with most international models assessed and the typical IOD life cycle.” https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=rnino34&period=weekly#tabs=Indian-Ocean

I don’t think we are going to see a big October burst in Atlantic tropical activity. This is how many months in a row now that people have been saying a big burst is coming? The finish line just keeps getting moved further and further forward in time. Now it’s October. This is becoming The Boy Who Cried Wolf. Eventually you have to acquiescence and admit defeat

@Stormchaserchuck1 IMO we are on the verge of finally going into a -AMO cycle

@Gawx

Also, a very strong -IOD signature here

It’s been insanely dry since the end of July

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic

Honestly, the most concerning thing, at least as far as snowfall is the drought. These typically aren’t easy to break, especially when in place for several months. They form a feedback cycle. And parts of the northeast are historically dry As far as the SE ridge, I think we do see much more SE ridging this time around due to the state of the Atlantic. BAMWX actually touched on this yesterday

I mentioned it a few days ago but the WPAC SST alignment matches previous years that saw a lot of +WPO. This -PDO cycle has been different than the last major -PDO cycle we saw (1940’s-1970’s), where where we now have the western North Pacific boiling, unlike back then

If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere

@Gawx

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October

There are none. That’s why I don’t like using them

I have no doubt that the SPV will be weaker this winter than 13-14 was. That was the most positive AO and NAO in history

That winter was also raging positive QBO

They are hyping for likes, follows, clout, retweets and views, as per usual. If just the NE PAC was warm and it was cold in the western North PAC around Japan (2013/2014) then yes that would be a +PDO alignment and would have that correlation. We don’t have that

Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions