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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….
  2. snowman19
    “Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making[emoji409][emoji91] Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event. According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History[emoji91] Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below- 1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c. This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events) 2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months[emoji3062][emoji409]”
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    Yep. And warming off the coast of South America has been increasing rapidly over the last week
  5. snowman19
    +8C in the subsurface is ridiculous. The warming at the surface has also been staggering
  6. snowman19
    The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now
  7. snowman19
  8. snowman19
    @csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”
  9. snowman19
    ^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile. On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed. #Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C. #ElNiño”
  10. snowman19
    The WPAC DWKW looks real healthy now…..
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    @forkyfork I wonder what the models will show once this current WWB and the new DWKW that has formed does their “dirty work”? There is some major strengthening and warming about to come And once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Nino/Bjerknes feedback
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    There is about to be a massive warming surge…. @bluewave @donsutherland1 @LakePaste25 @csnavywx @forkyfork@40/70 Benchmark
  15. snowman19
    It’s official. NOAA has declared an El Niño
  16. snowman19
    This WWB has actually increased in strength And the new DWKW in the WPAC looks very healthy @40/70 Benchmark
  17. snowman19
    Japan’s meteorological agency has declared an El Niño. Not a surprise given the current obs and the JMA model showing a historic event On a side note, the extreme SST anomalies off the coast of Peru continue…. ^ “And according to the latest oceanographic bulletin from @ImarpePeru, sea surface temperatures continue to rise and have reached an anomaly of +7.36°C (+13.25°F) off the coast of #Paita #Piura. Tomorrow we expect an update from the Climate Prediction Center of @NOAA on the status and outlook of #ElNiño.”
  18. snowman19
    I mentioned it a week or so ago, but +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are an extremely strong signal for warmth. Since 1980, there have been 6 +QBO/Nino Decembers and they were all warm, some were all out blowtorches
  19. snowman19
    100%. 1997-98 peaked the final week of November then steadily weakened right through the end of March. 2015 also peaked the last week of November then steadily weakened throughout the entire winter. Twitter kept wishcasting that the weakening was going to somehow “save” that winter and it was going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow the rest of the way. It also didn’t help that JB was hyping nonstop that it was a super “migrating Modoki” El Niño and said the analogs were 1957-58, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03, 2009-10 and 2014-15 for months on end in the fall and beginning of winter. The weenies bought right into that and the DT “it’s weakening!” argument hook, line and sinker
  20. snowman19
    New JMA….FWIW
  21. snowman19
    The normal peak time for El Niños is almost always November/December. That’s the time (November/December) that the majority of models show this one peaking
  22. snowman19
  23. snowman19
    The new DWKW has already started: And wow! 3 TC’s have formed in less than a week in the EPAC. Historic TC season coming up there
  24. snowman19
  25. snowman19
    No surprise in the EPAC. Super El Niño/++PMM at work. Explosive setup for a huge TC season….
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