snowman19
Daily Post Limited Member-
Posts
7,417 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
Here comes the latest SSW non event. The stratospheric models have been about as reliable as the weeklies . The dumpster fire continues….
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
snowman19 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
No offense but don’t you live in Philadelphia? What exactly are you hoping to get down there in March? And all the SSW hype has been fail after fail all winter. Total voodoo -
72-73 has actually been a decent analog. Both very strong El Niño, both strong -PDO
-
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
snowman19 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Ok Joe Bastardi -
It’s not even remotely worth looking at the CFS for March until like 2/28. They have a known record of not having the slightest glimmer of a clue and flip flop like a fish out of water until just before the next month starts
-
@bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012
-
I got around 8 inches
-
Past strong/super El Niños did get less hostile after mid-March. Early-mid March strongly favors a hostile, warmer than normal pattern though, looking back at history. Problem is that post mid-March, minus some very anomalous event, you are really fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day and it gets worse with each passing day at that point. The clock will really be ticking
-
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hope you enjoyed -
The setup next week is God awful
-
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Here comes the last minute north trend. Shocker!! @ag3 There will be WWA’s hoisted later this afternoon, probably all the way up into the NW suburbs. Good God the models have been awful with these last 2 events -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
snowman19 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC….. -
Good luck
-
IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking
-
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight -
Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup
-
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It most likely will, however there is going to be a limit to how far north it bumps. You want to be south of 287 for this one -
Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC -
Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it
-
I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly
-
If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO
-
I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios
-
Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March