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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    My confidence is increasing in a canonical La Niña pattern coming up:
  2. snowman19
    If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming
  3. snowman19
    Buckle up!
  4. snowman19
    Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later
  5. snowman19
    Just said it before in the Niña thread, but the 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge is completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature is showing up
  6. snowman19
    Definitely. Late bloomer (NDJ) and a Modoki/CP La Niña at that
  7. snowman19
    The 1/18 - 1/22 period looks cutter-ish, inland runner-ish to me. Blocking is gone. Ridge completely off the west coast, +NAO/+AO and a WAR signature showing up
  8. snowman19
    We are in an official La Niña @GaWx @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1
  9. snowman19
    I’m going with meteorology not modelology for this one. The tropical forcing progression and La Niña absolutely supports -PNA end of the month/early February. Could be a bit of a lag or the models haven’t caught on yet, like they didn’t to the cold this month until the last minute, but I completely believe that’s coming. I haven’t been so sure of something since I took up this hobby
  10. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 @bluewave Strengthening SPV to very strong levels with tropospheric/TPV coupling is imminent. The AO and NAO very likely go strongly positive
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    I’m absolutely convinced of RNA the end of this month/early February. MJO forcing will be moving into the IO with amplitude. Also, the SPV gains strength and coupling with the TPV looks imminent. That will result in a strong to very strong AO/NAO
  13. snowman19
    IMO Saturday morning is a dusting/coating to maybe an inch which would be the ceiling and not widespread, isolated areas. It’s looking like just a period of steady snow showers passing through
  14. snowman19
    Keep the current look we have now. Cold, suppressive and dry!! Lmfaoooooo @Allsnow In all seriousness I wholeheartedly believe we go RNA. Forcing is going into the IO. You can hold me to it
  15. snowman19
    Almost every model is not showing 2-4. Stop
  16. snowman19
    UKIE: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  17. snowman19
    Yea, -EPO driven. Besides the RNA, also looks like a flip to -AAM and a strong SPV/+AO
  18. snowman19
    @Bluewave Not surprisingly the EPS is right back to showing a -PNA just after mid-month
  19. snowman19
    That old EURO bias isn’t a thing anymore. It hasn’t existed in years and it’s handling the northern stream completely different. That’s why it’s flat and OTS run after run @Wxoutlooksblog
  20. snowman19
    We’ll see but the tropical forcing progression after 1/18 supports -PNA
  21. snowman19
    Even for the op GFS this is insane run to run jumps. I’ve honestly never seen anything like it. Let’s see if that has GEFS support
  22. snowman19
    EPS and GEFS are identical now for the 1/20 period. The pattern shift begins just after mid-month
  23. snowman19
    @Bluewave
  24. snowman19
    @Gawx @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1
  25. snowman19
    It’s going as good as all your snowstorm fantasies
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