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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    There are individuals with northern stream interaction
  2. snowman19
    Yep. Barely gets precip into SE Virginia. Streams stay completely separate
  3. snowman19
    I think it’s probably suppressive until the last week of the month like Tomer Burg said. He gave very solid reasoning. It most likely happens as the -NAO block erodes and fizzles out
  4. snowman19
    I agree. If anything happens it’s going to be after 2/15. The setup for 2/13-2/14 sucks. Our risk after 2/15 will be suppression, not lakes cutter or inland runner anymore IMO. Just hope the -NAO block isn’t too strong
  5. snowman19
    This only further supports Tomer Burg’s suppression argument. It’s a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Overpowering -NAO block in combo with a very strong El Niño, which already strongly favors the Mid-Atlantic and SE with a roided up, raging southern stream/STJ @MJO812 You won’t need shorts and a tank top, you’re going to get half of what you want….it’s going to get cold. Snow? Not so sure. Might be too much of a good thing in this case (suppression). I would not be praying for a massive, overpowering -NAO block right now given the strong El Niño
  6. snowman19
    Funny. Earthlight praised his analysis
  7. snowman19
    That tweet chain I just posted went into depth about the suppression risk through late February. He doesn’t think the pattern gets favorable for snow here until the tail end of the month into the start of March either
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Great disco:
  10. snowman19
    Sorry that I don’t wishcast cold and snow because that has worked out so well the last 3 winters .
  11. snowman19
    That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath
  12. snowman19
    I have and the stratosphere is still extremely difficult to predict. What are the actual effects on the SPV? Which side of the pole does it favor? What is the state of the PAC?
  13. snowman19
    2/1-2/15 is certain to average way above normal for the NYC metro area. It all depends on the 13 day period from 2/16-2/29 now….does it actually live up to all the snow and cold hype?
  14. snowman19
    Let’s call it a wash. The rounded trimonthly ONI is +2.0C for NDJ, unrounded is +1.97C (difference of 0.3). While the CPC is still going to list it as an official super El Niño, we’ll call it basically a wash in the contest
  15. snowman19
    I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward @Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip
  16. snowman19
    @bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C
  17. snowman19
    My point is that no one will give a s*** if all this pattern does is get it cold. Like Tomer Burg showed, this pattern carries a high risk of suppression. If this does turn out to be a suppressed pattern, you and everyone else will call it a HUGE fail
  18. snowman19
    Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility
  19. snowman19
    Big Nino warming/strenthening continues. Region 3.4 back up over +1.9C again. Looks like it may hit +2.0C in the next few days….
  20. snowman19
    Thoughts on this?
  21. snowman19
    Here’s Jim Cantore’s take on mid-late February. Can’t accuse him of being warm biased. He’s one of the biggest cold and snow weenie mets there is:
  22. snowman19
    Just looking at the end of the ensembles Ray….IMO the post 2/15 pattern change is not going to have much staying power. Gotta agree with you, I think this one is over and out come the beginning of March. The PAC looks poised to crash into that western ridge, I don’t see this lasting much more than 2 weeks but I could be wrong, been wrong before lol
  23. snowman19
    Interesting, since November we have yet to see any pattern lock in but this is going to be the one that locks in for a solid 28+ days
  24. snowman19
    T minus 13 days and we’ll know if all the bombastic hype about mid-late February is real. 2/15 is the start of put up or shut up time, do or die….
  25. snowman19
    It’s just wait and see what happens after 2/15 at this point. The ensembles and weeklies are either going to verify or they’re not…..
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