Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,465

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Just for “contest” purposes, a rounded super El Niño (trimonthly ONI) is a given at this point. I’m interested to see if we actually get it unrounded too. As far as the effects on the longwave pattern whether it’s +1.9C or +2.0C/+2.1C unrounded, makes no difference at all. The atmosphere is going to behave the same way, semantics in that sense
  2. snowman19
    With the way mid-late February is getting hyped right now, if it doesn’t produce here like mid-late January didn’t, it will be one of the biggest busts of all time
  3. snowman19
    For who? New Foundland? Nova Scotia?
  4. snowman19
    @so_whats_happening @GaWx The massive WWB is having a very rapid effect…Nino 3.4 is back over +1.8C and region 3 is almost +2.0C again
  5. snowman19
    Do you think it takes a bit to get the cold in again once the pattern flips around 2/15? 2/1-2/15 look awfully warm with PAC air across Canada and the CONUS, I would think that takes a few days (at least) to chill back down?
  6. snowman19
    My guess would be if it the pattern does actually flip around President’s Day weekend, as is modeled, it lasts until the beginning of March. Do I think (hypothetically), if the can gets kicked down the road again and the post 2/15 pattern doesn’t work out we do a storybook flip to a historic March, 2018 or March, 1993 pattern? No. If past strong El Niños are any indiction of how early-mid March is going to go….nope
  7. snowman19
    If the post 2/15 pattern is real it will still be there the end of next week. If it starts to get pushed out further in time beyond President’s Day weekend then we have serious problems, real serious
  8. snowman19
    Looks like there’s going to be very impressive + warm departures for 2/1-2/15
  9. snowman19
    It’s starting to look like the pattern change around President’s Day weekend is probably going to be real. It’s still way out there (over 15 days away), but it’s across the board model agreement for now. Let’s see if it holds through the end of next week. That’s going to be the big test if this is actually going to come to pass
  10. snowman19
    Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye @NEG NAO Good luck kicking the can down the road to March if mid-late February fails. Strong Ninos are definitely not favorable in early-mid March. Look back at history
  11. snowman19
    Do you believe all the hype about 2/15 and beyond or you think it’s yet another long range mirage?
  12. snowman19
    The El Niño isn’t collapsing at all. In fact, there is a massive WWB (westerly wind burst) forming right now and the Nino is strengthening again. Nino region 3.4 is starting to warm as we speak. This is only going to extend the strong Nino through late February now. See: Nino 3.4 staying strong and warming again:
  13. snowman19
    That’s a very good point. If Canada and the CONUS gets inundated with PAC air the next 2 weeks, not only is the arctic cold gone but you are going to loose a lot of snow and ice pack, also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to put Canada back in the freezer in January (like we just saw) than it is in mid-late February. Even if the pattern flips on 2/15, it’s going to take awhile to seed Canada with arctic air again. It’s not instant. I’m sure @SnowGoose69 will agree with this
  14. snowman19
    NYC is going to go into early February with less than 3 inches of snow, total, since 11/1 and above normal temps overall the last 3 months. A very, very bad sign, winters this bad normally just don’t come back. The 1st 2 weeks of February at the very least look like garbage now and I don’t see March, 2018 walking through the door, especially given the tendency for strong Ninos to have a mild to very mild early-mid March…
  15. snowman19
    Beyond horrible. That was probably the worst runs we’ve seen since November. Something has to change in a real big way the next 2 weeks or this winter will go on life support at that point
  16. snowman19
    97-98 just called….it wants its winter back
  17. snowman19
  18. snowman19
    You’re right, I really did think February was going to produce and I may very well be wrong. I’ll say it again, if we get to mid-month and there hasn’t been a true cold/snowy pattern change and we’re still talking about a “weenie look” on the weeklies that’s 2 weeks away, we’re done. Time will be up at that point (2/15) and I won’t care what the weeklies show then in 2 weeks for early March
  19. snowman19
    Have true Omega Blocked patterns ever been big snowstorm producers north of the Mid-Atlantic? I can’t recall any Edit: @George001 NYC isn’t the Mid-Atlantic
  20. snowman19
    36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now. @MJO812 There’s snow, it’s just not reaching the ground. If you look at the radar there’s a strong “bright banding” signature over the area, boundary layer is just too warm. Definitely another 97-98 type of storm
  21. snowman19
    Official forecast from NWS Upton: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
  22. snowman19
    You did say 2/15. Let’s see what happens. Hope the weeklies are actually correct. I will say this though, if we get to the mid-month time frame and this becomes late February/early March for the change, we will be in big trouble at that point. Mid-February is the absolute do or die, put up or shut up point IMO, there will be no more extending it, kicking the can down the road, whatever you want to call it, further out in time anymore. Time will have run out at that juncture
  23. snowman19
    That 12K NAM map is not even going to be close to reality. First off, it’s the NAM, second, that’s in 10:1 ratios, third, no other model, global or mesoscale is showing anything at all like that. Even the 3K NAM looks absolutely nothing like it. Extreme outlier, toss it right in the trash where it belongs. Here is that ridiculous 12K NAM run without 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  24. snowman19
    Maybe….if you believe in Bigfoot, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Look at the GEFS….its own ensembles don’t even agree with it. It’s such an outlier it’s not even funny
  25. snowman19
    The GFS still hasn’t put the crack pipe down. Literally no other guidance matches it….NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, CMC, UKMET, EURO, FV3, ICON, NWS blend of models. It’s completely all alone now. It should get this storm figured out sometime Monday afternoon….
×
×
  • Create New...