snowman19

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over

I mean evidently something other than the NAM/AO is driving it. What exactly it is I don’t know. Change in ocean currents, circulations (marine heatwaves)? Solar/geomag related? I’m sure someone with more knowledge than me can probably give better insight

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

Arctic sea ice is already at record low levels and we have until mid-late September before the ice melt normally stops per climo…..

Yep. And in other shocking news….MJO phases 5-6-7 are dominating again. Groundhog Day

@Stormchaserchuck1 @bluewave Speaking of the IO….the new EURO guidance is insisting on a solid negative IOD

There was relentless zonal and semizonal flow that entire winter, start to finish. It acted like a huge chinook across the entire CONUS. Thanks in part from the very strong +EPO and also the SPV went raging strong, shrunk and moved directly over the North Pole, once that happened it was lights out

As bad as 97-98 and 11-12 were, I think the worst of all time was 01-02. If there was ever a winter that was over before it even began, that was the one. Not only was it an absolute torch from November through March, it was also dry as all hell

There wasn’t even the slightest bit of seriousness in my post. Clearly a joke

In all honesty taking any model seriously in July for Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar whether it shows whatever outcome (cold, warm…) you want or not is crazy. I don’t think anyone here is doing that though

Ok JB lol [emoji23]

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

The WPAC SSTS up to this point are matching previous years that went on to see predominantly +WPO winters

@GaWx Yea. That would seemingly fit a descending solar max peak (but still elevated solar and geomag) and -QBO being unfavorable for predominant -AO/-NAO winter blocking. The low arctic sea ice also playing a role IMO

My confidence in a solidly negative PDO winter is growing by the day, -IOD and -PMM seem like good bets as well. As far as ENSO, I’m still favoring a cold-neutral (-ENSO), however I think a weak La Niña is possible, at least in the RONI sense, I can care less what the ONI does. I think the MEI may go into weak Nina territory too given the SOI behavior over the last few months up until the present. The orientation of the ENSO cold anomalies; possible Modoki? Remains to be seen. As far as the Atlantic….the +AMO is never ending

There are a few studies that show a very strong tendency for 2nd year -ENSO winter’s to be -PNA dominant

The summer of 2011 was absolutely brutal

11-12 was a prime example of certain folks using the -QBO = big high latitude (AO/NAO) blocking….cold/snowy winter broad brush. I remember many winter outlooks that went cold and snowy for the east that fall based in very large part to the -QBO, only to colossally fail

I agree with you. Up to this point in time, things seem to be lining up against a -NAO/-AO winter

I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns