snowman19

I’m talking wide spread CONUS summer humidity/heat this extreme

Even though we are slowly descending from the solar max peak during the winter, sunspots and geomag activity remain high

Absolutely oppressive, tropical rainforest heat is going to hit the Midwest and Ohio Valley next week. Dewpoints in the 80’s and temps near 100. We haven’t seen heat/humidty like this in the CONUS since the summer of 2011…..

The correlation to drier than normal with a strong -PDO and -ENSO was in fall, not so much winter if I remember correctly. The correlation to a warmer to much warmer than normal fall with strong -PDO with -ENSO was a really strong tendency

Given the very strong -PMM (cold waters off of Baja down to Hawaii) that has developed, if it continues, my guess is that the STJ is very muted this winter. -PMM correlates to a weak STJ, especially when combined with -ENSO. To your other point about fall….I’m really starting to think this coming met fall (Sept, Oct, Nov) is warmer to way warmer than normal due in large part to the ridiculous -PDO that has developed. My early guess is that we see a lot of -PNA/RNA. And likely +WPO….given the heatwave in the WPAC off Japan. It would also not surprise me if this fall is drier than normal….probably not as dry as last fall, but a solidly drier than normal fall would not shock me at all….

The EWB in region 3.4 is verifying to be very strong

Cold-neutral at the very least is guaranteed and a weak La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. IMO a warm to very warm met fall (Sept, Oct, Nov) is a definite possibility for the reasons you stated. I also think there’s a dry risk to fall as well

The EPS and GEFS did a very good job at range predicting the big Nino 3.4 cooling this month

I agree. I really think I may have been wrong with my cold-neutral call and we actually see an official La Niña

Yes it does bias towards a -ENSO, which is why I’m starting to agree with your musing that we may actually see a weak La Niña instead of just cold-neutral, which has been my guess up to this point

Were those winters +PNA winters or -EPO/-PNA winters. -PNA/-EPO can still certainly be cold. Just because there may be a dominant -PNA doesn’t automatically mean warm

This is the strongest -PMM signature we’ve seen in many years. The odds of a weak La Niña are definitely increasing….

2nd year -ENSOs very strongly support predominantly -PNA winters. There’s multiple studies showing that. As far as ENSO 1+2, it basically has been in an El Niño state for months and still is. It appears a Modoki/central-based cold-neutral or weak La Niña event is developing

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over

I mean evidently something other than the NAM/AO is driving it. What exactly it is I don’t know. Change in ocean currents, circulations (marine heatwaves)? Solar/geomag related? I’m sure someone with more knowledge than me can probably give better insight

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

Arctic sea ice is already at record low levels and we have until mid-late September before the ice melt normally stops per climo…..

Yep. And in other shocking news….MJO phases 5-6-7 are dominating again. Groundhog Day

@Stormchaserchuck1 @bluewave Speaking of the IO….the new EURO guidance is insisting on a solid negative IOD

There was relentless zonal and semizonal flow that entire winter, start to finish. It acted like a huge chinook across the entire CONUS. Thanks in part from the very strong +EPO and also the SPV went raging strong, shrunk and moved directly over the North Pole, once that happened it was lights out

As bad as 97-98 and 11-12 were, I think the worst of all time was 01-02. If there was ever a winter that was over before it even began, that was the one. Not only was it an absolute torch from November through March, it was also dry as all hell