snowman19

You’re right, I really did think February was going to produce and I may very well be wrong. I’ll say it again, if we get to mid-month and there hasn’t been a true cold/snowy pattern change and we’re still talking about a “weenie look” on the weeklies that’s 2 weeks away, we’re done. Time will be up at that point (2/15) and I won’t care what the weeklies show then in 2 weeks for early March

Have true Omega Blocked patterns ever been big snowstorm producers north of the Mid-Atlantic? I can’t recall any Edit: @George001 NYC isn’t the Mid-Atlantic

36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now. @MJO812 There’s snow, it’s just not reaching the ground. If you look at the radar there’s a strong “bright banding” signature over the area, boundary layer is just too warm. Definitely another 97-98 type of storm

Official forecast from NWS Upton: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

You did say 2/15. Let’s see what happens. Hope the weeklies are actually correct. I will say this though, if we get to the mid-month time frame and this becomes late February/early March for the change, we will be in big trouble at that point. Mid-February is the absolute do or die, put up or shut up point IMO, there will be no more extending it, kicking the can down the road, whatever you want to call it, further out in time anymore. Time will have run out at that juncture

That 12K NAM map is not even going to be close to reality. First off, it’s the NAM, second, that’s in 10:1 ratios, third, no other model, global or mesoscale is showing anything at all like that. Even the 3K NAM looks absolutely nothing like it. Extreme outlier, toss it right in the trash where it belongs. Here is that ridiculous 12K NAM run without 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012712&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Maybe….if you believe in Bigfoot, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Look at the GEFS….its own ensembles don’t even agree with it. It’s such an outlier it’s not even funny

The GFS still hasn’t put the crack pipe down. Literally no other guidance matches it….NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, CMC, UKMET, EURO, FV3, ICON, NWS blend of models. It’s completely all alone now. It should get this storm figured out sometime Monday afternoon….

If that Omega Block actually forms, I don’t think it will be in any big rush to leave, they usually are even more stable than Rex Blocks. It may take until mid-February or thereafter to get the potential snowstorm producing pattern in, again, assuming the weeklies are definitely correct

The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet

We agree. The NAM needs to be retired, awful model, possibly the worst ever. It’s now the GFS vs the world, this close in to the event. That model is in a world all to its own. Totally, completely embarrassing and pathetic

The God awful NAM at the end of its run and at 10:1 ratios. Good luck with that lol

Never said I think it’s going down in flames. I have no idea whether it’s going to be right or not. We’ll know soon though

Enjoy the NYC snowstorm Sun/Mon

Read my frigging post. I didn’t say anyone kicked the can. I said, IF IT (mid-late February) FAILS!!!!!!!!! And IF it does, it’s too late to kick the can at that point. Stop with your attacks everytime you think someone dares to say anything but NYC is going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with feet upon feet of snow

If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then

I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact

I agree. The pattern is absolutely awful but I guess stranger things have happened. Could very well be the op Euro being too amped, given that the EPS isn’t as aggressive, also the UKMET, which is normally way too amped at this range is well east of the op Euro. The GEFS and GEPS also aren’t that impressive. Wait and see now

Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February

I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro

I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day