snowman19

NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much

I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’ll wait to see what 6z and 12z do but I still don’t think 10:1 ratios are going to work regardless. There have obviously been wholesale changes since 12z no denying that

After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football

This thread describes this winter and where we are heading from now into March to a tee. Good read:

It has just begun its coming adjustments north from the ridiculous suppressed solution it had along with the NAM and CMC at 12z. The UKMET was way too suppressed as well

It was way closer to reality than what a lot of the models were showing closer to the city and the city itself

I don’t think it ever becomes a warning south of Orange, Sussex and Putnam counties

When I gave my opinion on this storm, I was accused of trolling, which I wasn’t. This setup has sucked for a week and it still does and I absolutely believe it’s going to trend north even further between now and Monday morning. IMO this is not going to be a major snowstorm south of I-84. Here’s what Earthlight has to say:

11/1-2/9: 2.3 inches of snow, total

That’s not a troll

It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night

Those snow maps are pure satire. NWS Upton is not biting and for good reason: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper levels signal a strong jet tapping into multiple sources of moisture from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic Monday into Monday night. Vertical lift apparent from a coupled jet structure depicted with local area close to right rear quad of jet streak to the NE of the area plus left front quad of an approaching jet streak to the SW going into early Tuesday. Mid levels convey a strong shortwave moving across the local region early Tuesday. ECMWF strongest and deepest compared to GFS and Canadian models. Shortwave moves well east of the region Tuesday night. Less amplified mid level shortwaves move across Wednesday and Thursday. Without much in the way of phasing of northern and southern branches of the upper jet with the southerly branch being the more dominant one, there is a limit to how amplified the wave gets. There is not much tilt vertically. This favors a relatively faster and more progressive solution. Also evident, is a lack of a strong high pressure area to lock in colder air. It will difficult to sustain any prolonged snowfall especially if more of the precipitation falls during the day. At the surface, low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic Monday night and then deepens as it tracks southeast of Long Island. ECMWF much deeper and slower compared to other models. The current forecast takes this low southeast of Long Island going into Monday night with an increase of precipitation. Similar to previous forecast, inland zones have relatively more snow in the forecast compared to the coast. Coastal areas contain mostly rain. Lesser chances of rain and snow accompany the smaller shortwaves Wednesday and Thursday with otherwise mainly dry conditions Tuesday night onward through rest of long term. Daytime temperatures will be higher than normal, well into the 40s on Monday but will decline closer to normal values for the rest of the work week. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off @MJO812 How’s the 12z ICON in Kuchera ratios looking?

New Disco from Upton: “LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * Models continue to see significant north-south shifts and changes in the timing of low pressure that is expected to impact the area Monday into Tuesday. Low track has shifted to the south the last 24h. Chance rain and/or snow. * Temperatures will trend down to normal levels by mid week. Models and their ensembles continue to lack continuity with the track and timing of a souther branch storm system that is expected to impact the area later Monday into Tuesday. Like we saw 24h ago, the ensembles continue to closely follow their operational, indicating an under dispersed solution. The players feature north Pacific jet energy diving down the coast of western Canada today and into a split flow of the polar jet across the west. This pattern has been causing much volatility in the NWP. Now that this energy is onshore, the hope is the continuity will improve heading into the weekend. In addition, the splitting of the energy into the two stream and their interaction across the CONUS is another major factor contributing to the run-to-run changes. As is stands now, once again with all the uncertainty in the forecast, have stayed closed to the NBM outside of some small changes. High pressure will builds across the area Sunday and then gives way to low pressure moving out of the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. The 12Z GFS is the slowest of the guidance and lags its ensemble mean (GEFS), but there is a good cluster of members that are in line with this slower track. The Canadian (and GEPS) and ECMWF are about 12h faster. The low is expected to track off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday, passing south and east of the 40N...70W benchmark. That being the case, confidence is still not high on this track based on the lack of continuity. As for precipitation type, whatever gets in here Monday should be rain with the potential of a changeover on the backside of the system Monday night into Tuesday. The lack of a strong surface high to the north and ESE flow at the onset, will likely result in temperatures too warm for snow. There is more uncertainty of course for inland locations, being father removed from the maritime influence. Bottom line, it is way too early to be specific with details, but it is something to watch in coming days. High pressure builds in for the middle of the week with cold, dry conditions. Gusty NW winds will likely prevail on the backside of the system Wednesday into Thursday.“ https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yes, it absolutely does and I fully expect the models to adjust as such again, the CMC/GEPS is closest to reality right now IMO. You are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment again. If I’m wrong then torch me, but I don’t think I will be

10:1 ratio maps are junk, agreed. Nothing has changed IMO. This is still an I84 north event

Mon-Tues is going to move north again

Yes I do. Just like I think Mon-Tues is an awful snow pattern still for here

I dunno just a guy with a Bachelor’s and Master’s in meteorology, who’s currently going for a Ph.D. in meteorology. You know…someone who really knows his stuff. Someone you might want to listen to. Just saying….

Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern

No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March