snowman19

That strongly supports more of the same eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-5-6–7) with all of the warm SSTS in that region. Also supports Niña strengthening/EWBs, enhanced trades

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking

^That is a big part of the reason why I question 2013-14 as a “good analog”. This year has a much better chance of seeing a La Niña in the fall/early winter than 13-14 ever did, 13-14 did not have a -IOD event as we do now, it did not have a strong -PDO; in fact it was a Victoria mode PDO which is a pseudo +PDO setup and was only very weakly negative, it was not -PMM and it was a strongly positive QBO all winter, see my monthly QBO numbers above AND it did not have record low arctic sea ice. The only resemblance to this year that I see is the Atlantic tropical season (**so far**) and the big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, other than that, big meh as an analog IMO….. @donsutherland1 @bluewave

13-14 was also a +QBO winter. These were the QBO numbers from Nov-Mar, 13-14: Nov: +12.45 Dec: +12.55 Jan: +13.13 Feb: +12.68 Mar: +11.72

The North Atlantic is night and day this year compared to 2023. That big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has been incredibly persistent since spring. Basically the opposite of the heatwave off of Japan in the Northwest PAC

The amount of flat out false info circulating around wxtwitter is simply amazing. Just read a tweet claiming that we are at “solar minimum” which isn’t even close to being true. You really have to be careful who you follow on there

That’s exactly the problem….our starting point at the very beginning of this arctic sea ice melt season was record low so we ended up with yet another record low year for 2025

You can’t be that specific on snowfall this far out….or even close in lol There are a few things that look like good bets going into winter. @Bluewave usually uses MJO wave intensity come October, which I think seems to be a rather decent indicator. So far, the MJO has been following the tendency of the last several years of favoring phases 5-6-7

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

“At the end of July 2025, daily sea ice extent in both hemispheres ranked third lowest in the 47-year satellite record. For most of the month, Arctic sea ice extent tracked close to levels recorded for 2012, the record-low-September year. July 2025 ended the month at fourth lowest on record, slightly surpassing July 2012. Although 2012 experienced the lowest September extent in the satellite record, the July 2012 monthly extent was only the fifth lowest. As of early August, the Northern Sea Route is nearly clear of ice, and Amundsen’s Northwest Passage path through the Canadian Archipelago also” Source: https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

I guess the silver lining as we approach the end of arctic sea ice melt season in the next 3 weeks is that although it’s record low, we aren’t as low as the all time record low in 2012: And still all systems go for a solid -IOD event:

Yea, it’s been a +NAO SSTA alignment for months now

Not really a surprise but the tropical Atlantic looks to become a total snooze fest for the next 2+ weeks

Not much change at all in the Atlantic the last month @Stormchaserchuck1….

If 16-17 didn’t see the strong -IOD form, it would have been another +ENSO winter, but much weaker. It still had the lingering +PDO and a strong +AMO. It was supposed to be a -QBO winter, but the super El Niño the winter before f-ed up the atmosphere/QBO progression so much that we went into another +QBO, which was a complete anomaly

To add, the new 30 day QPF from the EPS is very dry for the mid-Atlantic and northeast. IF (if) correct, we will be in drought conditions again….

No Nina’s are not a winter killer even south of New England

IMO, there is a high risk for a dry met fall (SON) again this year. I don’t think we see a record drought like last fall, but I can see us reach drought conditions none the less

No it’s not. In fact, a La Niña Watch was just issued by the CPC/NOAA

As a sweeping generality, -ENSO/-PDO winters tip their hand in November and December….if those 2 months are warmer than normal with below average snow, that usually sets the tone for the remainder of the winter season….the opposite (colder than normal with above average snow) normally also holds true

Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall

The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?