snowman19

It would not surprise me one bit if the MJO signal dies before ever going 8-1-2, given the reasons I stated yesterday. I absolutely believe we see a repeating phase 4-5-6 reemergence this winter for those reasons

The fact that even the -EPO happy long range EPS is seeing this speaks volumes. If that is in fact correct (Bering Sea trough/+WPO), it’s going to completely cutoff the arctic cross-polar flow and flood Canada and the lower 48 with PAC air. While not a “torch” it’s definitely mild verbatim And as far as La Niña, we are seeing the importance of looking past the traditional ONI for atmospheric and oceanic clues. AGW has skewed everything so warm, that the traditional indicators for ENSO events are getting largely washed out

Complete nonsense on the major SSW. The SPV stays very strong. And BS on getting cold. Huge ++EPO developing, the EPO floodgates open wide and the entire CONUS and Canada get flooded with PAC air for weeks. Good luck getting cold and snowy. EDIT: @brooklynwx99 With your track record the last few years I’d tread very very lightly. And I only quoted Eric Webb because @MJO812 was making love to him last week

Oh nice. So the idiot flat out admits that he’s doing it just to get subscription money from his east coast weenie base. Snake oil salesman spouting out lies and false info. He’s making a mockery of the profession for his own personal gain. What a total disgrace

@bluewave @GaWx The rapid Region 3.4 cooling is no surprise at all. There is no question that the atmosphere and ocean is strongly into La Niña mode as Paul Roundy clearly showed and the now classic CP/Modoki La Niña is going to gain a lot of strength this month. It’s finally responding oceanically with region 3.4 cooling dramatically. The -IOD is also gaining strength and is constructively interfering. +SOI, EWBs, Nina standing wave convection, MJO propagating strongly through 4-6, the entire global picture is screaming La Niña

I absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because that’s where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event. Some very good musings here:

JB rendered himself completely irrelevant years ago. The guy is delusional and willing to spread false info and lies to those who don’t know any better just for money, likes, retweets and follows. Only the hard core weenies take him seriously anymore. He’s nothing but a shit stain on the meteorological profession

We are very clearly in a La Niña state. @Bluewave likes to use these VP/OLR plots

I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion that we definitely go MJO 8-1-2 Anthony. Just posted about this: “I think the bigger question is this….do we actually see the MJO push into phases 8-1-2 in January or is this just another case of it totally crapping out at the dateline like we’ve seen over and over again? There is still an SSTA furnace in phases 4-7 and law of thermodynamics, that’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. That has not changed one iota. With the marked change toward a La Niña in the ENSO gynre, +SOI, -IOD, EWBs, standing wave convection, I’m not so sure we see a decided push into 8-1-2. The wave may fizzle out in the relatively cooler waters in those phase areas and the enhanced Niña trades may shear the convection apart as it tries to make a push to and beyond the IDL” ”I am doubtful of a major SSWE. Not to minimize the study GaWx found, which was compelling, but just based on the data StormchaserChuck posted, we are very closely (so far) following the Niña/+QBO/high solar years that featured a very cold stratosphere. Secondly, this year’s +QBO event isn’t just strong. It’s approaching record strong numbers”

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

I think the bigger question is this….do we actually see the MJO push into phases 8-1-2 in January or is this just another case of it totally crapping out at the dateline like we’ve seen over and over again? There is still an SSTA furnace in phases 4-7 and law of thermodynamics, that’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. That has not changed one iota. With the marked change toward a La Niña in the ENSO gynre, +SOI, -IOD, EWBs, standing wave convection, I’m not so sure we see a decided push into 8-1-2. The wave may fizzle out in the relatively cooler waters in those phase areas and the enhanced Niña trades may shear the convection apart as it tries to make a push to and beyond the IDL @bluewave Thoughts?

I am doubtful of a major SSWE. Not to minimize the study @GaWx found, which was compelling, but just based on the data @Stormchaserchuck1 posted, we are very closely (so far) following the Niña/+QBO/high solar years that featured a very cold stratosphere. Secondly, this year’s +QBO event isn’t just strong. It’s approaching record strong numbers

Color me very skeptical. -ENSO/+QBO/high solar is the LEAST likely combination to produce a major SSWE. Not saying that it’s impossible obviously, but the likely hood of a major SSWE is not good at all IMO @Stormchaserchuck1

The CFS is totally useless this far ahead. Check it again at the tail end of this month when it actually has credibility for January

Regardless of what happens with January, I’m starting to get more and more confident in a canonical Niña (Aleutian ridge/-PNA) February

This has been an issue with the EURO on the PAC side for years now. It grossly underestimates the MJO forcing and the strength of the PAC jet and pops phantom -EPO’s and +PNA’s in the long range, only to take them away as we get closer in time and it finally gets a clue

Just off the top of my head, in the last 5 years, BAMWX has bailed on 4 of their winter forecasts. In 2019, they bailed on their cold/snowy winter forecast at the end of December, in 2021 they bailed in late December, in 2022, they bailed on their winter forecast by the beginning of January, 2023. In 2023-2024, they bailed on February turning extremely blocky/cold/snowy by early February

So much for that big “upgrade”. They made it worse. Completely unreliable, they destroyed it. That model has become a joke

Might as well get wind to give us something to talk about because snow side looks like a total non event. The new HREF has basically nothing for the area

The background La Niña state just keeps chiving on unabated. The recent changes in the ENSO genre and constructive interference from the -IOD are just going to reinforce the whole process going forward

It’s thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere is going to fire the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest SSTs (MJO 4-6). That’s where the global heat budget is centered. And even despite the rise in the PDO last month, it was still record strong at over -3 as @GaWx pointed out yesterday. I honestly fail to see any change from last year in the PAC other than ENSO. This La Niña is finally, at long last starting to really take off (EWBs, +SOI, region 3.4 cooling, AAM slowly falling, -IOD) and it is entirely central-based/Modoki now too

I think it may have a shot at being the strongest +QBO event on record. We’ll see

Ummmmm yea it sure does. If the EPS and GEFS are correct, the EPO floodgates open up and it will scour all the arctic air out of Canada. Won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. This pattern looks to have staying power. Don’t believe me? Fine. Here’s Eric Webb and Earthlight:

Looks like yesterday’s GEFS may have been onto something

The day before Thanksgiving someone had tweeted the actual data on La Nina’s and cold-neutrals in the NYC area, going back to 1945. Long and short of it, they found that the overwhelming majority of the time, when December produced above normal snowfall, the rest of the season (Jan-Feb-Mar) went on to see average above normal snowfall. The exact opposite was true for Decembers that produced below average snowfall. So it definitely backs up @bluewave findings