snowman19

If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/ 2/15, again, assuming they are correct

Whether or not we see a “turnaround” at mid-February remains to be seen but the clock will really be ticking at that point. I see no reason to believe that March will be cold and snowy just based on history. If you look back on past strong El Niños, early-mid March turned warmer than normal. A very strong tendency for that in fact

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble

And that model is playing right to its usual bias of suppression and too far east at this range. I’m sure everyone is shocked

Besides the glaring antecedent cold air issues, the setup is absolutely horrible, the trough orientation, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, MJO, PAC jet, NO 50/50 low, the only thing it has going for it is a temporary +PNA spike that gets crashed into by the raging PAC jet extension, which deamplifys it and makes the pattern extremely progressive. Hard sell on a snowstorm anywhere near the NYC metro area 1/28-1/30

He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely*

The new 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS look completely unimpressive for 1/28-1/30

I agree. Cold air is going to be a big problem as is a whole plethora of other factors

The other thing that is hostile is how the trough has a strong positive tilt. That alone supports a well out to sea solution. I see no way that the end of the month becomes a major coastal snowstorm despite what some operational runs may show

No need for me to say much my man. It’s dropping fast, yes, but it looks to level off shortly. It’s going to be very close. I still stand by my prediction that it goes down as an official unrounded ERSST/ONI trimonthly super El Nino. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, so be it. I’ll take the hit if need be lol Anyway, it’s semantics now, there is going to be no difference on the overall synoptic longwave pattern whether this Nino is an official +1.9C trimonthly ONI or a +2.0C or +2.1C trimonthly ONI. We would be talking about a difference of 0.1 or 0.2. But anyway, I’m very curious to see the final result

Did you actually read my post? On 2/7, there isn’t 2 months of winter left. Smh

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

Where do we start on how hostile the end of the month looks for a snowstorm here? AO positive, NAO positive, EPO positive as can be with a huge low over Alaska, WPO positive, MJO in bad phases….the only “plus” is the temporary positive PNA, no arctic cold and you have a juiced PAC jet extension into the west coast which is going to make the flow extremely progressive and deamplify the PNA in short order. Yea, that is not screaming big snowstorm here to me

Best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm with that disaster of a pattern the end of the month. It’s going to take a lot more than a temporary positive PNA to unf*** that cluster

Strong Nino March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal

Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total?

Good luck

Lol at his post. We aren’t just magically turning arctic cold again like flipping a light switch after that huge AK vortex and PAC jet extension floods all of Canada and the CONUS with Pacific maritime air. In 2 weeks we are already into February

Back in Jan/Feb of 1998, we spent the overwhelming amount of time in MJO phase 8 and we all know how well that went for us

It’s not a true Norlun, those occur over New England. A Norlun is a special type of inverted trough: https://norcast.tv/ghost-of-ophelia-coming-back-friday/ https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html#:~:text=It%20was%20noted%20by%20operational,strong%2C%20localized%20bands%20of%20precipitation.

If Dr. Simon Lee is correct and we go into February with a +NAO/+AO due to the latest unfavorable stratospheric and SPV developments we are in big trouble. You will be at the mercy of strong ++ENSO/El Nino induced PAC jet extensions, MJO waves propogating over phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool convection and the -PDO. You are not going to sustain -EPO with a Nino this strong and +PNA does no good when you have +EPO/+WPO and no arctic or Atlantic high latitude blocking over the top

That’s about all it did good on, midlevel warm noses almost always get more aggressive at “game time” like that one was. The ensembles actually did a better job with actual snowfall totals, they had my area at 2.5 inches for 2 days and that was correct