snowman19

Region 4 is the coldest it’s been this entire event. And agree about the RONI. There is no denying that we are in a “late bloomer” La Niña

I’m not denying that at 12z today there has been a major change on the models. And I’m not downplaying. However, given the PAC jet extension and the tropical forcing, I believe that model change to be totally wrong. Once again, just my opinion given the totality of the synoptic pattern. The great part of this forum is that we can have differing opinions and disagree and I’m not changing my opinion based on one or two ensemble runs. I’m sticking by it. Maybe I’m wrong and that’s fine @MJO812 Christmas week hasn’t happened yet. Something that hasn’t happened yet isn’t “in trouble”

Well aware, and I’m not buying an arctic outbreak/extreme cold. Sorry we disagree but not believing the BAMWX, etc. GEFS model hype on twitter. Again, if I’m wrong I’ll own it

I absolutely believe that the Christmas week period is not going to end up an arctic tundra like twitter would have us believe right now. I completely agree with Earthlight. Again, if I end up being wrong, so be it, you guys can roast me lol New EPS:

And as far as this ridiculous SSWE hype on twitter, it is complete and total BS. A blatant wishcast if I ever saw one

Very impressive forecast from back in August. I’m pretty shocked with how well it worked out. I’m still definitely not buying that the MJO is just going to plow right into 7-8-1-2. Not buying it having absolutely no resistance to the Niña standing wave/EWBs/subsidence and cooler SSTs. Neither is Earthlight, who everyone well knows is far, far away from being a warmista. If I end up being wrong, I’ll gladly admit it and you guys can rip me apart

An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun

Yea. Up to this point they have been decoupled but there is some good evidence that they will couple in the next 2 weeks

Definitely nothing even close to an upward flux major warming of the stratosphere. JB was hyping one last week for clickbait and subscription money, but he’s dead wrong as usual

Will be interesting to see if his theory actually works out. Will also be interesting to see if we meet or eclipse the strongest +QBO on record

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor?

This La Niña is very clearly strengthening on all metrics and now the region 3.4 ONI is reflecting it. The drop in the MEI is indicative of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) system as is the RONI and SOI

Given the strong background atmospheric/oceanic La Niña state, no surprise at all and the MEI is almost certain to drop lower coming up. It goes back to what @roardog just posted about with the RONI @bluewave I’m sure you weren’t surprised by the MEI drop

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run?

Part of it is absolutely ENSO. If you read through the above tweet, only the NPAC is resembling a Nino, the equatorial PAC is full blown La Nina and it’s going to work to block the MJO from propogating east into 8-1-2 due to the CP Nina standing wave/subsidence/EWB shear and cooler SSTA. So it gets back to @bluewave point of competing influences in the pattern

@bluewave Still confident in an MJO 8-1-2 fail coming up. The cooler/cooling waters in those phases and the EWBs from the CP/Modoki Niña are going to shear it apart as it propagates east. Plus, the very strong SPV and tropospheric coupling will only potentiate the +NAO See:

Agree about a well inland threat. Verbatim, +NAO, no block, no 50/50 low. Plus an ongoing tendency of the models to badly underestimate the SE ridge/WAR at range, if a shortwave really amps it’ll be a runner or a cutter

They are the Joe Bastardi, Jr. of twitter now. I’m waiting for them to completely bail on their winter forecast just like they’ve done every year since 2019. It’s coming….

It hasn’t been that long. December, 2022 was cold

Yet another example of the SE ridge/WAR getting badly underestimated by the models until we get closer in time. Different winter, same story. The Atlantic has not changed one iota (+AMO). Maybe we see some sort of regime shift there too come spring and summer like I think may happen in the PAC

I mean bottom line, the background state is still the same and it’s not showing any signs of some unexpected, massive shift. We can count every pixel on the SSTA maps at this point and it’s not going to make any difference. Fact is, the PDO is still very strongly negative and the WPAC warm pool in MJO 4-6 is still there. It’s showing transient cooling due to the very strong convection firing, but the SSTs there are still a furnace and they extend deep below the surface. Once the convection lightens up, they will warm at the surface anew. IMO we are grasping at straws at this point. That said, I do think we see a big PAC regime (PDO, IO, WPAC warm pool, ENSO) shift but it’s not going to happen between today and March 30th. That’s going to be a driving feature of next winter….

@mitchnick It goes beyond ONI. It’s no longer a good ENSO indicator due to all the AGW background warming. It’s all just getting washed out. Case in point, look at what I just posted, it’s all indicative of a healthy La Niña event not La Nada despite the current ONI. It is absolutely a classic La Niña circulation. Atmospherically and oceanically:

It’s been cold and it’s going to get cold later this week. No doubt. You’d have to be a fool not to acknowledge that. Could very well be that we are seeing a classic “front-end loaded” La Niña. If that’s indeed the case, just lends even more confidence that the pattern goes canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March since we seem to be following a classic progression

@Bluewave @GaWx Here is a real good illustration of my point. The Niña standing wave is clear as day. The entire atmospheric and oceanic circulation is classic La Niña. Very good read here and why I seriously doubt the MJO signal ever makes it to or across the dateline: