snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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There is a town north of me in Orange County called Greenwood Lake. They have an out of control wild fire that looks like something from out west. It’s insane up there
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IF (and it’s a big if) the models can keep this new idea of the closed cutoff upper low and secondary surface development then this week would be the best chance at over .50 of rain we’ve had since mid-August. With the way things have gone since then, I would view these new solutions with caution This is the NWS blend of models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111706&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The record drought and warmth since August aside for a minute. Here is another warning sign for winter:
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This still looks like nothing more than FROPA with GOM influx completely cut off. I expect the drying trend to continue. Take the under on this one
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The record drought and warmth since late August being 2 big warning signs….This right here is a BIG red flag. Warning bells going off, but it will be ignored by some
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The tropical forcing progression in December is going to be completely unsupportive of an east coast trough. Does it change in January? Going to have to wait and see
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Yes I agree. December is starting to look like a very warm month. MJO forcing in warm phases (-IOD, -PDO, -ENSO = +EPO/-PNA, neutral WPO) and the SPV is about to go on steroids (+NAO/+AO). The entire subseasonal picture looks warm to very warm, PAC side, Atlantic side, arctic side. Question becomes does it change come January?
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The CPC has just spoken:
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My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August
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The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run
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What is EPS showing?
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It was really terrible with that last winter. And in December with a negative ENSO, MJO phases 3 through 7 are all warm in the east
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If you have time, look up the 5 driest falls on record, since this fall is at #2 of all time, and see how those winters turned out. Snowfall and temps
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The MJO is forecast to emerge in warm phases by early December. We’ll see
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God speed and good luck with your forecast!! I hope it works out for you
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Sustained EWBs confined in region 3.4! Yep, this is definitely a textbook east-based event!!
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Who gives a shit what Eric Webb says?
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Look at where all the arctic air is, locked on the complete opposite side of the pole again, in Eurasia. And we are going into mid-November. Just like last year
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FWIW:
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Just to add, while it’s certainly possible that the solar cycle peaks this month, you typically don’t see this level of CME activity as a solar cycle is just about to start descending. Again, it will take months to know for sure if this is actually the peak happening right now
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The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV
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All one has to do is look at the huge warming of the Indian Ocean (and -IOD development) over the last month. That’s the elephant in the room right now. The overall La Niña, -PDO atmospheric background state is NOT going to change in a big way with that setup. It’s just going to potentiate the MJO 4-6 tropical forcing and standing wave regardless of whether the region 3.4 ONI is cold-neutral or weak La Niña this winter. Some of us overlooked that fact last winter and instead decided to believe the long range weeklies and monthlies and it was a very huge mistake. Fatal error and resulted in really bad busts
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Look at how much the Indian Ocean has warmed since October. This is only going to serve to reinforce the strong La Niña background state and tropical forcing (MJO 4-6) along with the -IOD
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We’ve been hearing that the solar cycle has peaked since July and those claims have obviously been completely wrong. We won’t know if November is actually the peak for several months
