snowman19

If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex

As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)

As strong a signal as you will ever see for the rest of this month @Bluewave

The ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are a general 0.2 - 0.4 total QPF Sun/Mon which will seem like a deluge

I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña

@40/70 Benchmark This is going to become even more of a classic central-based Niña

EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hard sell on the SPV weakening. The Euro was awful with doing this last year early on in November/December. And there’s a massive trough in Eurasia exactly where you would want a ridge, which is going to allow the SPV to strengthen as much as it wants

@Gawx Even more confidence in my guess of a hostile NAO this winter. And any word on the October QBO number? Edit: @GaWx Assuming a Dec/Jan peak, I wonder if we meet or eclipse the WQBO record (at 30mb) of +15??

That’s a real good question. It’s clear that by mid-month the SE ridge/WAR is going to pop, then it becomes a question of how strong, which is going to depend on the trough in the west. The +AMO and New Foundland warm pool by itself is supportive of SE ridge/WAR. If the -PNA really dumps into the west then it’s probably more of the same on the east coast (dry) with a stronger downstream ridge @SnoSki14 @Allsnow And the GFS has begun a full scale cave to the drier Euro suite for Sun/Mon. Watch it turn into nothing more than a few passing showers. “When in drought, forecast drought”

Not sure about THE warmest November, but I can absolutely see this being in the top 5 based on what the ensembles are showing right through Thanksgiving

Agree. Showers on Sunday/Monday are not going to undo the damage that has been done since August 20th

Warm Niña falls doesn’t have as strong of a signal as precip. The correlation to winter is stronger with dryness/wetness. Dry falls, in particular very dry falls have a correlation to below normal snowfall

If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in

Fall dryness/wetness has a much better correlation to the winter pattern than does temperatures @donsutherland1

I think more than the warmth (which has been going on for years now), the big story since August is the record dry pattern. We have clearly gone into a dry feedback loop and once they are in place, they are VERY hard to break

I think this ends up another record dry month and the drought continues unabated

I mentioned it before, but I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - +4 this winter busts too low given the very rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years

If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years

My Winter Outlook Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

There may be a brief, transient period with the tropical forcing? But overall? No

Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers

100%. Based on the D-F 500mb, the Cansips would be a torch winter