snowman19

Larry seems to think that this is going to be a basin-wide La Niña. The current SST configuration would give some support to that. All ENSO regions, including region 4 are dropping right now. We’re going to have to monitor whether or not this continues into November. You definitely don’t want region 4 in La Niña territory going into winter. The other things to closely watch this fall are the QBO (which rose up to neutral in July), PDO and AMO

I’m really not anti cold and snow. I usually lean on the warmer side yes but over the last several winters I see no reason not to. I will say this, if this stays a weak La Niña, and the QBO goes solidly negative/easterly in the fall, I’m more than willing to go with a cold and snowy winter even if the PDO is negative and the AMO is negative. For the most part, I don’t really care what the solar cycle or Siberian snowcover do, for the reasons I’ve already stated. In the study I linked to a few days ago, they had strong evidence that a La Niña promotes a colder stratosphere, regardless of solar cycle anyway. I think to a large extent the soil moisture theory that DT loves to use is very unreliable as well. Anyway, that said, I definitely would not expect 95-96 to walk through the door even if the QBO goes negative, besides the changed climate, that winter had a strong +PDO (very unusual for a La Niña), the AMO was strongly positive, the SSTs around Greenland and Davis Straight were very warm and well above normal, promoting the -NAO Tripole setup we had that winter, the QBO flipped negative in the fall then gained a lot of strength that winter (whether that happens this winter remains to be seen) and that La Niña stayed weak and east-based all winter. Like you said, the La Niña/QBO link is a very strong one. D’Aleo’s study was eye opening in that regard

This isn’t “parroting”, it’s fact. Like I just said, JB is a prime example, he continues to use “analogs” from 50 years ago, hypes them, then wonders why they turn into epic fails. Denying reality. It’s been happening for years yet he still continues doing it. There is no denying that our climate has changed in a very huge way over the last 15-20 years

He may well be exactly correct. There is no comparison right now to the climates of 30, 40 or 50 years ago. Joe Bastardi is a great example, constantly using “analogs” from the 40’s, 50’s, 60s, 70’s and wondering why his forecasts are a huge fail after huge fail

It’s been mentioned before but global warming over the past 15 years has really rendered old analogs useless. It’s a completely different climate now, than it was even 15 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40+ years ago. Global heat budgets have changed, jet streams have been altered, Hadley cells have been altered, feedbacks and ENSO circulations have changed, sea ice loss..... Use analogs from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, etc. at your own peril IMO

Another theory which was completely blown out of the water was: “low arctic sea ice will result in more high latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO)” Over the past several winters, we’ve had record low arctic sea ice levels and high latitude blocking has been non existent

We shall see and yes, global warming I’m sure is definitely playing a factor. The people who used “low solar”, “solar minimum” and Siberian snowcover/SAI last winter to justify a cold and snowy winter forecast busted really bad and it’s not the first winter that happened either with people using those 2 factors

A La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. I think one of the keys will be what the QBO does in the fall, if it goes positive/westerly then it may be time to worry, especially if the -PDO, -AMO continues. As far as the solar cycle I’m not so sure it correlates to winter as well as some people had thought, same story with Siberian snowcover/SAI, just look at last winter....

According to D’Aleo there is also an effect on the PNA. Westerly QBO/Niña favors more -PNA, easterly QBO/Niña favors more +PNA

Here’s another study: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/24/8899/34342/The-Stratospheric-Pathway-of-La-Nina

Here it is, go to page 126: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PR4&lpg=PR4&dq=joe+d'aleo+nina+west&source=bl&ots=IZzwDpsLOl&sig=ACfU3U0KjJcmSsDgryXj2AK4mMRkfMomYg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwidy63sxvfqAhX6gXIEHSDfC50Q6AEwGnoECAUQAQ#v=onepage&q=joe d'aleo nina QBO&f=false

There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

With the amount of uber hype circulating around social media about mid-December becoming epically cold and snowy, if it fails, I honestly believe there will be mental breakdowns and suicide attempts if it’s not at least -10F below normal with 40+ inches of snow between December 15th - January 1st....

Just watched an interview about global warming with The Weather Channel founder, John Coleman. Honestly, the guy made himself sound completely delusional. He said over and over “There is no global warming at all.” He completely denied any global warming whatsoever, no matter how small. I happen to believe that man has nothing at all to do with global warming. IMO it is a totally natural earth cycle, related to the oceans and the sun, more so the oceans. But to completely deny that there’s any warming at all is crazy as far as I’m concerned. Global warming is undeniable, however I think the reason is not mankind related.....

The onslaught of kids playing fake meteorologist on social media is really turning this science into a joke. People who don’t know any better, follow them thinking they are legit and actually believe their proclamations of historic blizzards and biblical cold coming from November to April. The clueless, fake predictions never come to fruition of course, then people start saying “it’s all hype”, “meteorologists get paid to be totally wrong, they know nothing”, “computer models suck”, “they are never right”. They are doing some serious damage to this field because 90% of the general public that sees their garbage don’t realize they aren’t really mets and their forecasts are fake wishcasts and hype meant to panic people. It becomes the boy who cried wolf in the public’s eyes when there really is a major snowstorm or severe cold coming and the real mets are trying to warn people. It’s really a shame and it’s becoming an epidemic.

Guess the weeklies weren’t cold and snowy based on twitter...the same people who were in love, praising its last run are hating on it now, “it’s wrong” as one comment said. Don’t even have to look to know the gist of what the latest run is showing lol

You guys crack me up lol

The twitter trolls and wackos are coming out of hibernation in full force again now that it’s November I see. Ed Vallee and a few others were getting attacked this morning for suggesting that November is going to be a warm month. It’s so predictable, you only see them tweet from November until April, then they disappear and crawl back under their rocks completely until the following November, like clockwork. The shame of it is, they ruin great twitter threads and discourage some very good mets from tweeting and giving their insight

It’s pretty funny but you just know what “analogs” are going to be used in the fall based on whether we have an El Niño or a La Niña. El Niño: 57-58, 02-03, 09-10 La Niña: 95-96, 10-11, 13-14. Without fail, those analogs come out, everytime

What does the MAM say?

All I will say is the folks who are posting the false info that the stratospheric PV is warming, splitting, being disrupted, doing river dances, jumping jacks and backflips right now might not want to look at the new CanSIPS and CFS runs; they both are showing a wall to wall epic torch winter from start to finish, I’m talking December right through March; super +AO, +NAO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO. If correct, it will make the 2011-2012 winter look like an ice age.....

And here come the posts about how the stratospheric polar vortex is “splitting”, “warming”, “being disrupted”, “weakening” when it is doing absolutely nothing of the sort right now. Just saw this starting in another forum on this board. So tiring after the last few years of this banal exercise from November until April when people who don’t even have the slightest glimmer of a clue as to what the stratospheric PV is or what it does post the same false, clueless info over and over again for the next 5 months