snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I don’t even look at the Judah Cohen snake oil SAI index anymore, that proved itself to be nonsense. Looks like the models, once again are pulling their normal phantom AO/NAO blocking fantasies in the long range, right on schedule:
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Nice write up
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I mentioned it before, but I think all this record arctic sea ice melt is also contributing to the persistently +AO and +NAO winters we have been seeing. IMO it’s not a coincidence and it’s created a positive feedback loop
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The Greenland ice melt is extremely disturbing. Not as bad as 2012 but it’s still at record levels. If there were any more doubts about AGW having a major effect on our climate and global circulations, this is a very good example. Even HM is clueless as to which way the NAO is going this winter. Should be interesting to see what Isotherm says
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Agree here. The 73-74 winter is real interesting, you had a raging strong La Niña (strongest in history) and a very deeply negative PDO, yet it turned out to be a pretty decent winter for cold and snow. That really illustrates your point of how important both AO and NAO blocking are for the east coast during moderate and strong La Niña events....
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Very true. I guess you also have to consider that the 73-74 super La Niña occurred during a totally different, cooler climate era. I kind of doubt that even with a complete carbon copy of 73-74 this winter, you’d have the same results in the temperature and snowfall departments....
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As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter
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Back in July, never in a million years did I think this Niña event would ever approach strong, but it appears to be doing just that. The models continue to get stronger with it. It’s now fully coupled, ENSO region 4 has dropped like a rock. There are also shades of the 88-89 strong La Niña showing up, which HM and Ben Noll have pointed out:
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The funny thing is, and they mentioned this in the New England forum, the models showing the -NAO December, also have a +AO....I would think it would be pretty rare to have a +AO/-NAO combo...usually they go + or - together, they usually aren’t out of phase with each other. I guess we’ll see
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Are you buying the models showing a strong/very strong La Niña peak?
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The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too:
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I should have said as a sweeping generality, Niñas tend to be front loaded
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March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold
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If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter
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A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said
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Yea, in that Euro run, December would definitely be the “better” month. You’re correct that we’d avoid an all out torch with the -NAO, which we’d have given the Pacific look (-PNA/RNA, +EPO). People didn’t like December because of the Pacific side it shows, the EPO and PNA floodgates are going to be open. Then it obviously goes all to hell for Jan and Feb
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The atmosphere has been screwy since the 15-16 super El Niño event, it obviously altered the global circulation in a big way. Don’t look at the new Euro seasonal for winter, ugly is putting it nicely, it made the new CANSIPS look good, but wow at this Euro run.....
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I don’t even bother looking at the SAI anymore. It’s proven to be completely useless snake oil. Abysmal failure several winters in a row
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This record low Arctic sea ice is disturbing. I think it’s definitely a contributing factor to the ++AO winters we’ve been seeing the last few years. It seems to be causing a positive feedback loop
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We are about to start seeing a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Niña start to take shape in the next few weeks. Should be interesting to see how that affects the PDO:
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The models are showing it becoming a modoki as we go into winter. Most Ninas start east and move west. Right now, it’s definitely a basin-wide event, all 4 ENSO regions are cold. ENSO region 4 has not been this cold (-0.6C) in well over a decade. The models show region 4 remaining cold throughout the winter. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png
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It’s supposed to peak at moderate in December
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The CFS is such a train wreck, always the very last one to get a clue. Pretty sad when American guidance is some of the worst out there
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For anyone following; the QBO number for September just updated, it’s up to +7.95
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Honestly can’t remember how long it’s been since ENSO region 4 was this cold. The models showing a moderate peak in December are looking more and more believable. I had doubts about the Niña getting beyond weak, those doubts are pretty much gone:
