snowman19

This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold:

It’s not only weakening the +PNA it’s lost the -EPO, which isn’t a shock, it’s been doing that for years now

Agreed. It is not a good look for us through at least 1/16. The window for us to score is definitely narrowing, I’d say the time to watch is 1/17 - 1/28....by 1/28, the models want to go canonical La Niña; Aleutian ridge, -PNA/+EPO and they start to quickly lose the -AO/-NAO couplet, both are going positive in the closing days of this month. Far out obviously, but right now it doesn’t look pretty going into the beginning of February

Agree. It’s probably going to be post 1/16 for any real snow threats

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

Isotherm thinks the shift to canonical Niña at the end of this month and February is real. It would fit Niña climo

I was waiting for the CMC to have one of its classic overamped rogue runs....there it is lol

That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent

Exactly. If something is going to happen, more than likely it’s post 1/16 or so

It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away....

The op Euro has been garbage so far this winter, not only too amped, but has been flip flopping like crazy

Who knows, maybe this time, at long last, after over 3 winters of the models showing it in the long-range and being dead wrong, there’s really a -EPO period, until it actually happens though, it’s the boy who cried wolf. I have no problem believing the +PNA spike however I think that happens. I guess we’ll see about this big -EPO

Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts

For starters, the arctic cold went to our side of the pole, among other key differences. Read up: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/

The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one

Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future

Not saying it doesn’t look good for storms, if you want cold, it’s ugly, real ugly. @MJO812 for the 100th time, ugly for getting arctic cold

That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open

Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

How exactly will it definitely improve the PAC? And how does it not matter at all if all the cold ends up on the other side of the pole?

If you think Monday is a snowstorm setup, I don’t know what to tell you. In fact, it may actually end up being a cutter

Agree. The GFS has no credibility whatsoever anymore. This is a horrid antecedent airmass and everything would have to literally be 100% perfect, flawless, to get a snowstorm in the metro area. I’ll sell on a snowstorm for Monday

Besides the bad PAC, we have this fact, Don warned that this SSW may end up benefiting Eurasia @donsutherland1 @bluewave...

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust.