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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    In Fort Kent, Maine? Absolutely!! Flash Freeze potential there!!
  2. snowman19
    It’s just FROPA. The GFS loves to show phantom anafronts and phantom lows developing off shore on cold fronts....none of which actually happen. It’s been doing this for years, seen this before, we all know how this movie ends....
  3. snowman19
    Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing
  4. snowman19
    Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong
  5. snowman19
    After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful
  6. snowman19
    By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96
  7. snowman19
    That doesn’t look like a true vortex split, the model shows something, then backs off, shows something then backs off. I hope this doesn’t turn into yet another winter of chasing phantom “vortex splits” and SSWEs from now until March....
  8. snowman19
    The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....
  9. snowman19
    I didn’t say it was people in here. Please don’t get defensive, take a look at the twitter hype, hence why I said “people” and the -NAO depicted is a meh east-based one. I still seriously any sustained west-based Greenland blocked -NAO, I won’t believe it until it happens, not mirages on long range modeling
  10. snowman19
    Yep, people are hyping a -NAO/-AO, they do you no good when you have a +EPO pumping PAC puke into Canada, all the -NAO does is capture the puke under the block....useless
  11. snowman19
    Which is concerning IMO (that the eastern 1.2 and 3 ENSO regions are warming), it’s moving west and it’s becoming more of a Modoki, regions 3.4 and 4 centered event as we go into winter, which is what a few models suggested would happen
  12. snowman19
    Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold
  13. snowman19
    Good call by you and Bluewave last week of the eventual correction to much warmer for this weekend. Looks like 50’s and rain now
  14. snowman19
    The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong:
  15. snowman19
    Enjoy what? Not understanding your post
  16. snowman19
    Region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over 16 years
  17. snowman19
    I saw that this morning. It’s ugly, real ugly, it’s showing an 11-12 type winter scenario....hard to believe that we would have back to back winters this bad, they are usually separated by a bunch of years in between
  18. snowman19
    If this month turns into a dud, we are in very big trouble for the rest of winter. Bad November’s and December’s in moderate to strong La Ninas are the kiss of death for winter in our area
  19. snowman19
    It looks like a ridiculously mild pattern is going to set up shop by the 15th. Consensus on all 3 major ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) now, along with the CFS
  20. snowman19
    Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November
  21. snowman19
    The 10-11 La Niña was extremely “east-based” at the beginning of winter, November and December. If you recall, as it evolved to become more “west-based” around mid-January, the high latitude blocking began to slowly breakdown, then it completely fell apart at the end of January and that was all she wrote for that winter, the blocking never came back again, right through April.....
  22. snowman19
    There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out
  23. snowman19
    The Niña associated Aleutian ridge is showing up on all ensemble guidance now, all the new runs of EPS, GEPS, GEFS have it
  24. snowman19
    How many times now over the last 3 winters have the ensembles shown a massive -EPO/-NAO/-AO pattern in the long range only for it to never verify and just completely disappear?
  25. snowman19
    Yea, it’s definitely concerning. When the TPV moves into AK it typically has good staying power, it’s normally not in and out, transient
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