snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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@psuhoffman I think another wildcard for winter that HM keeps mentioning is the wildfires’ effects on the stratosphere....
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It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward? Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now
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Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum:
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Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story
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No, they have just begun to affect the stratosphere. The effects will continue through winter. This is going to have long lasting effects for many months even after they end
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All these wildfires punching smoke up into the stratosphere are not what you want to see. It is increasing the chances of seeing another +AO winter. HM posted 2 articles last week explaining in detail why this is
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I read several studies which concluded that tropical volcanic eruptions that punch into the stratosphere result in +AO the first winter after an eruption, then cause -AO the following winter. This study on wildfire impacts on the stratosphere is real interesting. These wildfires are much more extensive than 2017 so you would expect a bigger impact; it would seemingly support +AO this winter
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Wasn’t the GloSea the very first model to see the extreme +NAO/+AO last fall?
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The models are getting stronger with the Niña too, looks like a moderate peak come December. The Euro is now showing a more “Modoki” look to the Niña as we get into winter as SnowHibbo pointed out.
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DT painted himself into the same corner JB did with his Niña/QBO argument several years ago. If he stands by his argument and the research he posted back then, he can’t go for a cold and snowy winter in the east with a +QBO or risk contradicting himself. Should be interesting to see what his forecast is, unless he finds some way around it. He has gone cold and snowy the last few winters in a row
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I don’t think anyone would be shocked if November turns cold. It’s been a reoccurring theme for several years now, September and October end up warmer and drier than normal, then November flips colder and wetter than normal. Deja Vu....
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Yea, the La Niña driven circulation theme is unanimous among all models for this winter. The new CANSIPS and Euro reflect that:
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This is a pretty healthy looking La Niña at the moment. It’s really becoming more of a basin-wide event....region 4 hasn’t stayed this consistently cool for quite a long time:
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Looks like this is going to be a +QBO winter, August’s QBO number went up to +4.78
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It honestly looks like a typical La Niña “front end loaded” (Dec - mid January) winter. It’s truly amazing that the models continue to advertise +NAO/+AO, just amazingly persistent for years now. December does look more neutral like you said
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Read an old article from HM, he showed that a La Niña/+QBO results in a poleward Aleutian ridge in December. A La Niña/-QBO combo results in a flatter Aleutian high in December
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Interesting, because Joe D’Aleo’s research showed +QBO/Niña being a bad combo for cold and snow in the east. I wonder what he was looking at to come to those conclusions
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95-96 was a weak Niña with a +PDO (strong positive at that), which is very unusual when you have a La Niña. You also were in the midst of a strong +AMO cycle with very warm North Atlantic SSTs, which favor -NAO and positive feedback into that -NAO
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Assuming this actually behaves like a “normal” La Niña and is front end loaded, usually December to mid January are cold, late January and especially February usually torch, and March is a toss up, some go back to cold, some stay warmer than normal
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That’s the warmest and least snowiest I’ve ever seen Weatherbell go. I was honestly shocked
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I honestly thought they ended up being one of the better ones. They had been going cold and snowy until mid-December when they admitted that their winter forecast was going to be a bust and they were pretty spot on for the remainder of the month, Jan, Feb and Mar. There were several others who stubbornly refused to admit they were going to be wrong and kept forecasting blocking, cold and snowy right through February
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BAMWX agrees with you. They just tweeted this morning that the signals are growing for a mild winter across the CONUS
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IMO the thing that is more disturbing than the PDO right now is the -AMO. That is an ugly North Atlantic if you want negative NAO. Of course this could all be different come November....
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Did the PDO state play any role in this? Right now at least, it looks like a healthy negative PDO is taking shape with that big warm pool gaining strength south of the Aleutians
