snowman19

Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

He’s extremely arrogant and condescending. Back in November he was hyping a “huge”, “historic” -EPO coming for December. He actually had an attitude towards anyone who questioned it. That turned into an epic fail. Not surprisingly that he’s back on the hype train for January. Everything is historic, huge and epic to him, and don’t you dare question him.....

Looks like the EPS wants no part of it at all so far

What is it showing? Just saw a tweet saying it was showing a miss, nothing. Not around my computer right now

The NAO block is too far south, it’s linking up with the WAR, so it does us no good

Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO. All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

The new ensembles are a train wreck in the long range, the PAC side looks really awful and they show the -NAO block setting up way too far south and linking up to the WAR. They have been looking progressively worse since the Wednesday night runs

When you hold all your hopes on a “major” SSW event to completely flip the long wave pattern at the end of December, it usually doesn’t end well......

Never a good sign when you are counting on SSWs and SPV splits to change a pattern. Anyway, very true on your point on who benefits from this potential SSW. Not really seeing it on these forums but the hype on social media that it’s definitely going to benefit the east and dump arctic cold and snow into the northeast and mid-Atlantic is dead wrong. The SSW (if it even happens) could very easily benefit Eurasia like you said and do nothing here. We have multiple examples of such. The notion that any SSW and/or SPV split = massive cold and snow in the east is greatly flawed

Very ugly overnight runs on the ensembles all the way out to the end of the runs, Bluewave. The GEFS and GEPS were particularly hideous. EPS was pretty bad too just not as awful as the other 2.....

Correct, we also have a +WPO, which is adding to the PAC driven mess. People need to be aware too, that the -NAO block may set up too far south....that needs to be kept in mind here. A too far south block hooking up with the WAR (no 50/50 low) is not good. That block needs to establish itself further north or you have big problems

There in lies a big issue, the PAC jet. Over the last several winters, every attempt at sustained +PNA ends up falling apart because the juiced PAC jet crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up

The model continue to show a strong +EPO and have backed off on sustained +PNA. Until you lose the AK troughing, you aren’t going to get durable cold into the CONUS. The +EPO is completely cutting off any cross-polar flow. You also have a +WPO. Despite the -NAO and -AO, this is not an arctic cold pattern and it may be extremely difficult to get east coast snowstorms until the PAC changes, negative AO/NAO isn’t going to cut it with a Pacific that looks like that

I don’t trust the GFS or GEFS anymore. They have been abysmal man

I completely disagree. This is the strongest trade wind surge we have seen since October. Nino 3.4 is going to drop. Also as Don already pointed out, this is the lowest SOI we’ve had since 2012. Region 3.4 SSTs are solidly in moderate territory. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators certainly show a healthy Niña, not a dead one. It’s also showing that this is very likely to be a slow fade in late winter, not a sudden shift into Neutral/La Nada

@bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all:

The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate

To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous

If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February

Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January)

GFS too cold again and on its own yet again

No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything

The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut

This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits