snowman19

The GEFS and GEPS have completely lost all of the high latitude blocking (-EPO, -NAO, -AO) in the long range, I strongly suspect the EPS will be next. This is shades of last winter when the EPS would insist on high latitude blocking mirages in the long range, run after run, only for them to completely disappear as you move forward in time

With no cold air? You know it has to be cold to snow right?

From Ben Noll:

A classic canonical La Niña response is bound to happen this winter. We have a strong Niña. Anytime there is a strong ENSO event, the pattern will eventually respond to the forcing, when there is a weak/moderate ENSO event, other atmospheric factors can “override” it all winter, as has been the case in the past, this event is too strong to not have a profound impact on the pattern

It’s uncanny how closely we have been following 1988 up to this point. I know several mets had mentioned it as an analog back in September. If this is indeed how it plays out, ‘88 also had the +PNA spike the first 2 weeks of December then progressed into what the EPS weeklies show the 2nd half of the month

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

I speak only to the ENSO forecast, which the models have done an absolutely outstanding job on. They have been insisting on a strong La Niña since August, when everyone and their mother were doubting it

@bluewave Here comes the big Niña strengthening period for the end of November and December that the models have been insisting on since early September, they have actually done a great job. A solidly strong La Niña is all but assured now for the 20-21 winter:

There is no cold air, look at the EPO, it’s positive as hell, there is a massive AK vortex in place, flooding PAC maritime air into Canada. The +PNA isn’t going to help with that look. Stop listening to JB, the first half of December looks cruddy. Maybe interior northern New England gets something and that’s even a stretch

Lol JB is hyped so it’s sure to happen. The 1st half of December looks horrible for snow except maybe for northern New England

From HM earlier:

Good stuff. Here is a good tweet by HM from earlier:

@frd Just to add to your post, evidence is certainly mounting for a +NAM this winter, here is the thread Griteater made today:

@bluewave @Allsnow @donsutherland1 Good thread by Griteater, but a VERY bad sign:

Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere

Lol We’re still waiting for the one that was supposed to happen last winter

Agreed. This is what Griteater was afraid of, that we would have a flat Aleutian ridge instead of a poleward one, he expected this to happen

That’s a big difference from pretty much all the other winter outlooks so far....they have February as a massive torch

Here’s the winter outlook from Earthlight (John Homenuk) who used to be really active on these forums: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

Agreed, kind of hard to be worse than last winter....

01-02 wasn’t really ugly looking until the early fall, record high solar flux hit....

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post

I remember back at this time in 2002 when literally every sign was pointing to an epic winter and it turned out to be just that. This year, everything is pointing to a dud...a huge dud. The strong basin-wide La Niña we have with the coldest anomalies moving westward to region 3.4 instead of region 1+2, coldest ENSO region 4 in over 10 years, +QBO, negative PDO, current negative PNA/RNA regime cooling the SSTs in the GOA and off the western North American coast, massive amounts of wildfire smoke getting pumped into the stratosphere since the summer, record low arctic sea ice, the SPV showing signs of being strong as hell and coupling with the TPV, the North Atlantic SST configuration is absolutely horrible for promoting negative NAO, AGW, torched SSTs along and off the entire east coast, positively feeding back into the SE Ridge and WAR, not a fan of using it, but Eurasian snowcover as of this month is the lowest it’s been in the last 15+ years. Literally the only “plus”, if you want to call it that, is the low solar cycle/solar minimum we are in, but the solar argument has proven itself to be complete snake oil and false hope over the last several winters

If BAMWX is correct, December is in big trouble. The analog set they are expecting all featured a horrific PAC side....flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, also favoring +NAO, +AO