snowman19

Yep good point we are warmer today. And AGW is increasing the frequency of super El Ninos

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

Evidence of anomalous westerlies and an El Niño standing wave setting up….

With the ++PMM, I think there’s a definite possibility that we see a very rare TC hit in Baja/California this season. In fact, given what has happened so far with the twin TC’s we’ve already seen and the oncoming El Niño, this may be a record breaking TC season in the PAC as a whole….

@Bluewave This El Niño is projected to become extremely well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) with a “Bjerknes feedback” response by June. Mirroring the super events of 1982, 1997 and 2015. A very strong +IOD is also forecasted to develop this summer, which will further constructively interfere with the Nino. I have a feeling we are going to remember this one for a very long time: “When it comes to El Niño, atmospheric changes matter just as much as changes in sea temperatures. That's because it's a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Looking at velocity potential, which marks areas of rising air (green) and sinking air (brown) in response to warming and cooling tropical seas, a strong atmospheric El Niño response is forecast this year starting in June. That response is predicted to be quite similar to past big El Niño events, such as in 2015, 1997, and 1982. However, the atmospheric response in 2026 is forecast to be much different — and much stronger — than in 2023. These changes in the Walker Circulation arise from warm seas shifting from west to east across the tropical Pacific, which causes more thunderstorms in the east and fewer toward the west. This ultimately has flow-on effects on weather patterns across the planet due to changes in jet streams, as those thunderstorms release heat into the atmosphere.”

I don’t think we are going to have to wait for the spring barrier to end with this one. It has already tipped its hand, just like 1982, 1997 and 2015 did by this time. The big ones all do. IMO this one is headed to super and very likely to be an east-based/EP event

The KW is about to emerge on the South American coast. The models are showing it developing as an east-based/East Pacific event. Then we will have to see if it stays east-based or becomes basin-wide: Research shows that +PMM El Nino’s strongly support east-based events. We have a very strong (record strong actually) +PMM this year: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” ^Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution. +PMM:

Subsurface anomalies over +5C showing up:

I think this one (El Niño) ends up stronger than 2023-24. That said, there are some very notable differences:

@GaWx This is all I’ve seen so far: And on a side note, this WWB is about to blow 1997 away….. Paul Roundy: ”I'm really just highlighting that over the next couple of weeks, this signal will explode beyond anything we presently see in these indicators, because the wind stress accrued to the Pacific over the last several days is 50% more intense, in terms of wind stress at the ocean surface, than the comparable event in 1997.”

Yea. Should be real interesting to see what happens once this massive DWKW surfaces in the eastern PAC next month

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

An extreme +PMM has developed: @40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

“A strong MJO pulse (part of what helped spawn #Sinlaku) is traversing the Pacific and will move towards Central America. As a result, trade winds will slow across the Central and East Pacific in the next two weeks. I expect we will see some fairly rapid warming of ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3 as a result, with a lot of sub-surface heat lurking from the last downwelling Kelvin Wave. On top of warming already ongoing, the East/Central Pacific may start to look very El-Niño-like shortly.”

Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)