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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Agree with Bluewave. Unlike 2015. the MC forcing has been totally non-existent since spring. Very 1997 like in that respect. And as far as ignoring factors more important than ENSO, there are no factors more important than the strongest super El Nino in history. It is massive and it will be the main driver this winter, by far and away, elephant in the room, totally and completely overwhelming. An overwhelming signal this absurdly strong, with record/extreme latent and sensible heat release to the atmosphere from the tropical PAC is going to trump all else (weather moves west to east), it totally dominates the forcing and the global heat budget. The extratropical -PDO (with the relative warmth off Japan doesn't even hold a candle to it), the AMO, the Atlantic, the Arctic, NAO/AO…..it is going to steam roll them
  2. snowman19
    Yep. This El Niño has no resemblance whatsoever to 1997 lol
  3. snowman19
  4. snowman19
    A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive
  5. snowman19
    We disagree but that’s ok
  6. snowman19
    I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998
  7. snowman19
    This is classic, strong east-based/East Pacific (EP) El Niño forcing. And +IOD forcing is starting to show up in the global circulation now too:
  8. snowman19
    Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously (record) east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO
  9. snowman19
    The new EURO run is off the charts. All time record-breaking in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 and by a lot. This is the projected traditional ONI for each region next month, keep in mind that the El Niño will still be strengthening at this point. It has the final peak happening in December My guess is that the ONI/RONI peaks in December. Guess for peaks: ONI: +4.1C - +4.2C RONI: +3.5C - +3.6C
  10. snowman19
    +12C subsurface is ridiculous. I’m thinking the subsurface peaks around +13C/+14C The fact that we reached an absolute temperature of 30C in region 3.4 and over +5C in region 1+2 are equally as ridiculous stats
  11. snowman19
  12. snowman19
    This WWB is record-breaking, much, much stronger and much further east than the massive one we had back in October, 1997. It’s going to spawn another DWKW and cause a big warming burst again in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4
  13. snowman19
    Nowhere in that post did I say as warm as 2015, I said “the strongest warm December signal since 2015”
  14. snowman19
    This is by far the strongest signal for a warm December since 2015
  15. snowman19
  16. snowman19
    We are seeing the strengthening +IOD state constructively interfering with the very strong El Niño low frequency forcing, which is overwhelming the MJO signal, something you’d expect to see with a super event. And also as expected, this Nino has become the most east-based event on record and we have hit +12C in the subsurface (courtesy of the record WWBs and DWKWs), something I have suspected for months, along with the 30C isotherm propagating to 140W
  17. snowman19
    I actually did an update on the IOD early this morning….it strengthened rapidly to +0.88 in the last week. It likely peaks solidly over +1 next month
  18. snowman19
    You didn’t question me, you flat out accused me of plagiarism then produced zero evidence. I ask you again, what the fuck did I plagiarize? If you can’t back up your asshole accusations then don’t make them in the first place Edit: This will be the last thing I ever say on this board, I’m deleting my account after this. Go fuck yourself @so_whats_happening and I say that in the nicest way possible. BTW, you are the worst met who posts on here since we are giving honest opinions. You are a cold/snow weenie and your thoughts and forecasts are never correct. You did a shit job predicting this event and downplayed it every step of the way. You suck. But other than that, you’re a great guy :-)
  19. snowman19
    What the fuck are you talking about? I don’t give a shit if you’re a red rag or not don’t you dare accuse me plagiarism. Show me what I plagiarized, let’s see it
  20. snowman19
    I get what you’re saying with adding an OHC component to the formula, but I think looking at it separately is just as effective
  21. snowman19
    And the MEI cope has officially failed miserably, down in flames!! Womp, womp!! The last 5 months have been absolutely hilarious. Let’s see…First there was the RONI cope, FAIL, then there was the SOI cope, FAIL, then there was the trade winds are going to come back cope, FAIL, then there was the ridiculous Modoki cope, FAIL, then there MEI cope, FAIL, now we have the -PDO cope, also destined to miserably fail this fall. Can’t wait to see what the next copium will be to downplay the strongest east-based super El Niño in history…. Have to post this again….makes me smile
  22. snowman19
    The coupling is extreme. Biggest April - July MEI rise in history, like you said, up to +2.4 now. The highest MEI value we’ve had since 1998 and only 0.5 from the all time record of +2.9:
  23. snowman19
    Completely agree about the PMM. Once we get into met fall and the effects in the NH start to become much more pronounced, I think that’s when we see a big pattern shift along with the change in the PDO. The +IOD just got going at the tail end of July. Once that strengthens throughout the fall and starts constructively interfering/coupling with El Niño, that’s when the big changes in the NH really get going
  24. snowman19
    A small area of +10C is starting to develop in the subsurface
  25. snowman19
    This thermocline is ridiculous
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