snowman19

While we certainly appear to have already reached the “peak” of this -PDO cycle, it looks like we are still in it, probably for at least another year…..

Yea, I saw your studies on it. I believe HM also touched on it in a post here many years ago….descending solar after a max is actually worse for NAO and AO blocking than it is at peak solar max

Although nothing in weather is “impossible”, I would say an El Nino, even a weak one is extremely unlikely

Obviously way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, I think the only things that are obvious at this very early juncture unless something changes dramatically and unexpectedly are: 1) “cold” ENSO is a VERY good bet (question being is it going to be cold-neutral or do we see another weak La Niña?), 2) Still elevated solar and geomag 3) -QBO 4) Hedging towards another -PDO; although not severely negative like the last several 5) possible strong -IOD? 6) Likely -PMM. That’s about it for now….

It’s starting to look like we see, at minimum, a cold-neutral ENSO, with a weak La Niña becoming a distinct possibility

The -PDO aside, the tropical indicators (IOD, PMM, trade winds, SOI, surface/subsurface ENSO profiles) are supportive of a cold-neutral at the very least, with weak La Niña turning into a possibility

I’m starting to wonder if we see a weak La Niña develop. I’ve been saying cold-neutral and I still think that’s the favored outcome but the door seems to be opening for a possible weak Nina to develop this summer/fall. It appears a strong -IOD is taking shape, that, along with a continued -PDO, -PMM and the surface/subsurface/trade wind/SOI trends are seemingly opening the door for a possible weak Niña

I had thought the PDO cycle was going to change this year, but that does not appear to be the case. I think we remain in a -PDO cycle for at least another year. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be severely negative like we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Also becoming more convinced by the day that we see a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña ENSO (based on subsurface, surface, -PMM, trade winds, SOI trends)

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

I’m not assuming anything given its way, way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, a -PDO would not surprise me, although I do not think it will be anywhere near as strong as we have seen over the last 5+ years, which were record breaking

IMO, best guess, we see a cold-neutral, possibly borderline weak La Niña ENSO. El Niño looks extremely unlikely now

Good luck getting an El Niño with this going on:

Completely agree. I’d say right now a cold-neutral is most likely, with a lower chance of a weak La Niña. El Niño being extremely unlikely

I’m starting to gain more confidence in a cold-neutral ENSO. At this point, based on the subsurface, surface, trade winds and the -PMM, I’d say an El Niño is extremely unlikely

I’m going to take into account the global warming skew and say this past winter was a “late bloomer” weak La Niña. There was very dramatic cooling and EWBs starting in late November/December

If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult

If the Copernicus is correct (-PDO, cold-neutral ENSO), it’s probably going to be a hot summer in the east, especially coming off a La Niña (“hangover”)….

FWIW, this is what the Copernicus is showing for this summer (continuation and strengthening of the marine heatwave in the NW Pacific/-PDO, cold-neutral ENSO, -PMM) also, a developing, descending -QBO:

Just read on facebook that salt trucks are out up in Pine Bush. Not really sure why, it’s above freezing, I can’t imagine any stickage on the roads, even up there

Becoming pretty confident that we do not see an El Niño. The PMM has become severely negative (cold water off of Baja). -PMM argues very strongly against Nino development. My best guess right now is La Nada/neutral and most likely cold-neutral

I’ll take “Things that definitely aren’t going to happen” for $1,000 Alex

JB, Mark Margavage and a several others on twitter

After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled

After all the SSWE hype the end of February and throughout March, the mid-March event failed to couple, as was the case with every other stratospheric wave reflection and stretching event that has occurred since November. The stratosphere and troposphere have remained totally uncoupled

Try again in December. Game over been over