snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see
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Not that I’ve seen yet. I’ll let you know. The only thing he’s really commented on is that he doesn’t believe the “warm blob” is going to last into the winter and thinks a classic ‘cold horseshoe’ -PDO alignment is going to develop
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24-25 was weak La Niña IMO
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I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not
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It’s been a real long time since we’ve seen a true predominant +EPO winter. Honestly since 11-12. Ever since then we default to -EPO several times during the winter and haven’t really seen a +EPO “lock in” like that since
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The “warm blob” has been taking a big hit over the last few weeks. Now the question becomes does it come back by December (i.e. 2013)? Or do we see a classic “cold horseshoe” negative PDO alignment develop like Paul Roundy thinks is going to happen?
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I think what saved 16-17 from being a complete dud was the PDO. That winter had a neutral PDO, coming off of the ++PDO the winter before with the super Nino
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Even if we go above 100 ACE, which seems likely now, I very seriously doubt we go above normal and the ACE connection to winter is extremely questionable anyway
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@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes your warm/dry -PDO October
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We disagree on poleward ridging. -QBO/-ENSO supports a destabilized tropical tropopause, on equator forcing/convection and a flat Aleutian ridge. Not saying no poleward ridging at all but as much as we saw last winter? Nope IMO
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The ACE relationship to winter is extremely sketchy at best
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I don’t think we’re going to see anywhere near the amount of poleward ridging that we did last winter
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Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats
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Honestly I think it’s totally useless but that’s just my opinion
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That is correct. I re-read up on it and the whole point of Judah’s SAI index is to measure the rate of snowcover buildup in Siberia, in October, especially mid-late October @kazimirkai As far as the northeast Pacific warm blob, I read that Paul is expecting it to continue cooling and not last into winter. Over the last few weeks it has been weakening and cooling, whether that continues or not remains to be seen
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I thought October was the important month not September
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Offsetting the WPAC warm pool may be a very tall task. The above normal anomalies out that way are still off the charts
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It would not shock me to see an uncoupled (disconnected) SPV this winter where the SPV is weak but there’s a +AO at the surface, as Commoditywx showed in that tweet above. That looks like a very strong tendency of previous years with the -IOD and the Copernicus is showing it for November and December
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Since 19-20, he always finds a way to predict a -AO/-NAO winter with a very weak SPV and major blocking every single year. He’s only gotten one right by default….20-21. And I get accused of being biased lol
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The Copernicus model suite is showing the same total disconnect between the SPV and the TPV that we saw last winter. It’s showing them staying uncoupled in November and December with a very weak SPV, but a +AO/+NAM at the surface. Interestingly, the last times such scenarios happened was when we had a negative IOD @Stormchaserchuck1
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The drought continues to worsen. Yesterday’s rain event underperformed what was expected earlier on in the week, not that it would have made much of a dent anyway. Soil moisture is also ridiculously below normal
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As far as the WPO goes….I have to agree with you there. The WPAC SST pattern over the last couple of months up to now is matching past years that had predominantly +WPO winters. If that doesn’t change in a big way between now and the end of November, a +WPO winter would not surprise me
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I agree with the BOM. A weak La Niña the remainder of the fall into at least early winter is inevitable
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My opinion has not changed. I don’t care what the models say. I still believe we finish this season below 100 ACE. If I’m wrong so be it
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My bias is not part of this conversation. I know you’re ready to start one of your 5th grade personal attacks
