snowman19

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

While we certainly appear to have already reached the “peak” of this -PDO cycle, it looks like we are still in it, probably for at least another year…..

Yea, I saw your studies on it. I believe HM also touched on it in a post here many years ago….descending solar after a max is actually worse for NAO and AO blocking than it is at peak solar max

Although nothing in weather is “impossible”, I would say an El Nino, even a weak one is extremely unlikely

Obviously way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, I think the only things that are obvious at this very early juncture unless something changes dramatically and unexpectedly are: 1) “cold” ENSO is a VERY good bet (question being is it going to be cold-neutral or do we see another weak La Niña?), 2) Still elevated solar and geomag 3) -QBO 4) Hedging towards another -PDO; although not severely negative like the last several 5) possible strong -IOD? 6) Likely -PMM. That’s about it for now….

It’s starting to look like we see, at minimum, a cold-neutral ENSO, with a weak La Niña becoming a distinct possibility

The -PDO aside, the tropical indicators (IOD, PMM, trade winds, SOI, surface/subsurface ENSO profiles) are supportive of a cold-neutral at the very least, with weak La Niña turning into a possibility

I’m starting to wonder if we see a weak La Niña develop. I’ve been saying cold-neutral and I still think that’s the favored outcome but the door seems to be opening for a possible weak Nina to develop this summer/fall. It appears a strong -IOD is taking shape, that, along with a continued -PDO, -PMM and the surface/subsurface/trade wind/SOI trends are seemingly opening the door for a possible weak Niña

I had thought the PDO cycle was going to change this year, but that does not appear to be the case. I think we remain in a -PDO cycle for at least another year. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be severely negative like we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Also becoming more convinced by the day that we see a cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña ENSO (based on subsurface, surface, -PMM, trade winds, SOI trends)

IMO calling this past winter a La Nada/cold-neutral is absolutely ridiculous. ENSO was very clearly in La Niña mode, atmospherically and oceanically and if you adjust it for climate change, it was a solid weak La Niña winter. It just happened to be a late-bloomer event

I’m not assuming anything given its way, way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, a -PDO would not surprise me, although I do not think it will be anywhere near as strong as we have seen over the last 5+ years, which were record breaking

IMO, best guess, we see a cold-neutral, possibly borderline weak La Niña ENSO. El Niño looks extremely unlikely now

Good luck getting an El Niño with this going on:

Completely agree. I’d say right now a cold-neutral is most likely, with a lower chance of a weak La Niña. El Niño being extremely unlikely

I’m starting to gain more confidence in a cold-neutral ENSO. At this point, based on the subsurface, surface, trade winds and the -PMM, I’d say an El Niño is extremely unlikely

I’m going to take into account the global warming skew and say this past winter was a “late bloomer” weak La Niña. There was very dramatic cooling and EWBs starting in late November/December

If the projected summer global picture (cold-neutral “Nada” ENSO coming off a La Niña, -QBO, -PMM, -PDO, still elevated solar/geomag activity) continues into the fall, I have a feeling that the winter forecast is not going to be a cut and dry easy one at all, not that any of them ever really are, but this one may be exceptionally difficult

If the Copernicus is correct (-PDO, cold-neutral ENSO), it’s probably going to be a hot summer in the east, especially coming off a La Niña (“hangover”)….