snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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As a sweeping generality, -ENSO/-PDO winters tip their hand in November and December….if those 2 months are warmer than normal with below average snow, that usually sets the tone for the remainder of the winter season….the opposite (colder than normal with above average snow) normally also holds true
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Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall
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The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?
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What @BlizzardWx posted yesterday makes the most sense….recurving hurricane/well above normal ACE tropical seasons during -ENSO’s are a symptom of an overall Atlantic background state resulting in -NAO blocked winters…..not the cause of them
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Can you narrow it down further to -NAO/-ENSO (La Niña/cold-neutral) winters? The whole theory was based on years with high ACE and recurving hurricanes during -ENSO’s supposedly causing -NAO blocking during winter
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There was/is a very questionable theory that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during a -ENSO results in -NAO blocking in winter. I have seen zero hard, convincing evidence that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during -ENSOs (La Nina’s/cold-neutrals) cause -NAO blocking in winter. JB has been the biggest pusher of this unproven theory ever since the 1995-96 winter because of the ‘95 Atlantic hurricane season that preceded it
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I’m not saying it CAN’T happen, I’m going with my gut and what has transpired thus far/what is projected to transpire in early-mid September. It is my strong OPINION that this is not going to be an above normal ACE season. Can I be wrong? Sure
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I don’t think there will be any debate on that indisputable fact. The question remains, how will this tropical season finish in terms of ACE and named storms, all added up, said and done, on November 30th, which is what really counts. There are signs that at least early-mid September will become quiet again. Despite the current uptick in ACE to this point with Erin, I still have very serious doubts that this 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will end up above normal in ACE or in named storms
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Above normal number of storms and above normal ACE
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It seems that the musings back in July about the Atlantic SST profile being unfavorable for a big tropical season were correct in spite of a -ENSO. @DonSutherland1 was spot on with his call of a -AAM regime setting up in August as well
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The difference between cold-neutral and weak La Niña is negligible. Same atmospheric response. The atmosphere isn’t going to say “I’m going to behave completely different because there’s a technical classification as ‘cold-neutral’ as opposed to ‘weak La Niña’. The classification difference between the two is one degree C
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A “La Niña Watch” has been issued by the CPC/NOAA; expecting La Niña conditions come fall into early winter before going back to cold-neutral conditions by late winter into early spring…..
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My guess is that the PNA is more negative during the winter than last year….2nd year -ENSO
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My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now
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It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year
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IMO we are more “Niña” than 13-14 was
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Unless there is a very radical shift in the PDO to a Victoria mode between now and December, I would not have 13-14 as an analog. The blooming -IOD also doesn’t fit, neither does ENSO
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There has also been a propensity for -PMM the last several winters and thus a weak to very weak STJ….
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No one here said it will maintain severely negative levels. But is a solidly -PDO winter a very good bet? Absolutely
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@DonSutherland1 Looks like the anticipated shift to a -AAM regime has just started
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No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part
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If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth
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Tropical cyclones passing through the area
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The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:
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13-14 was not driven by ENSO IMO. It was driven by a Victoria mode PDO (pseudo +PDO) on its way to becoming the very strong +PDO of 14-15. There was also no -IOD in 13-14. I 100% believe we see a weak La Niña this season, given the SOI, MEI, -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, easterly wind bursts, RONI, subsurface
