snowman19

The thing I remember most about the 10-11 winter was HM nailing that massive NAO/AO blocking over a month before it even happened. It was right around Halloween and he sounded the alarm that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major high latitude blocking was coming for December and January. And I know people are going to be shocked at this, but I have to give JB credit for accurately calling the complete breakdown of the blocking in February. Around mid-January he warned that winter was going to come to an abrupt end, over and done in the east in February and the NAO/AO were going to collapse and not come back again. The weenies were furious with him, wanted to rip him apart. He turned out to be right

@Stormchaserchuck1 Very interesting post/research on why the subsurface is arguing that this is likely going to be a 2nd year “double dip” La Niña:

13-14 was a “Victoria mode” SSTA pattern in the PAC. A Victoria mode resembles a +PDO in the SST signature way more than it does a -PDO. Even though 13-14 was technically a weak -PDO, the SST distribution resembled way more of a +PDO than it did a -PDO. In fact, if you looked at the SST maps from that winter you would think the PDO was positive @donsutherland1 @bluewave

It definitely looks like a more “traditional” -PDO in the NE PAC with the cold horseshoe from the GOA down the west coast of NA. What’s also very striking is how severely negative the PMM has become

While the MJO has definitely been active in phases 5-6-7 so far, it hasn’t been very strong/amplified like last summer was…..

Lol with the lone exception of 1916-17 those were +PDO winters. If he’s trying to argue that the PDO is somehow going to magically flip positive by winter, I wish him lots of luck….i think he’s going to need it

As Ray has mentioned a few times, descending solar from a solar max peak is actually more hostile to NAO/AO blocking in winter than it is right at solar max peak

These dateline EWBs are causing central-based/Modoki La Niña events. This year is no different, dateline EWBs and ENSO 1+2 is and has been in a Nino. The last true east-based Niña event we had was 17-18.

I’m talking wide spread CONUS summer humidity/heat this extreme

Even though we are slowly descending from the solar max peak during the winter, sunspots and geomag activity remain high

Absolutely oppressive, tropical rainforest heat is going to hit the Midwest and Ohio Valley next week. Dewpoints in the 80’s and temps near 100. We haven’t seen heat/humidty like this in the CONUS since the summer of 2011…..

The correlation to drier than normal with a strong -PDO and -ENSO was in fall, not so much winter if I remember correctly. The correlation to a warmer to much warmer than normal fall with strong -PDO with -ENSO was a really strong tendency

Given the very strong -PMM (cold waters off of Baja down to Hawaii) that has developed, if it continues, my guess is that the STJ is very muted this winter. -PMM correlates to a weak STJ, especially when combined with -ENSO. To your other point about fall….I’m really starting to think this coming met fall (Sept, Oct, Nov) is warmer to way warmer than normal due in large part to the ridiculous -PDO that has developed. My early guess is that we see a lot of -PNA/RNA. And likely +WPO….given the heatwave in the WPAC off Japan. It would also not surprise me if this fall is drier than normal….probably not as dry as last fall, but a solidly drier than normal fall would not shock me at all….

The EWB in region 3.4 is verifying to be very strong

Cold-neutral at the very least is guaranteed and a weak La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. IMO a warm to very warm met fall (Sept, Oct, Nov) is a definite possibility for the reasons you stated. I also think there’s a dry risk to fall as well

The EPS and GEFS did a very good job at range predicting the big Nino 3.4 cooling this month

I agree. I really think I may have been wrong with my cold-neutral call and we actually see an official La Niña

Yes it does bias towards a -ENSO, which is why I’m starting to agree with your musing that we may actually see a weak La Niña instead of just cold-neutral, which has been my guess up to this point

Were those winters +PNA winters or -EPO/-PNA winters. -PNA/-EPO can still certainly be cold. Just because there may be a dominant -PNA doesn’t automatically mean warm

This is the strongest -PMM signature we’ve seen in many years. The odds of a weak La Niña are definitely increasing….

2nd year -ENSOs very strongly support predominantly -PNA winters. There’s multiple studies showing that. As far as ENSO 1+2, it basically has been in an El Niño state for months and still is. It appears a Modoki/central-based cold-neutral or weak La Niña event is developing

The PDO isn’t even close to the 2013 progression at this point. Like not even in the ballpark. ENSO isn’t similar either

They might have not downgraded far enough. It looks extremely unfavorable

Looks like CSU has downgraded their Atlantic hurricane season forecast as of yesterday, based on the reoccurring dry air, wind shear and “cooler” SSTs suppressing convection in the Atlantic tropical basin. Would not surprise me if we struggle to get over 100 ACE this season

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over