snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Wow! The 12K NAM is too amped. Color me shocked! That model is as useful as tits on a bull
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Hey Chief, here’s the 3K NAM, even at Kuchera ratios. Nothing, zilch, nada. Something is obviously wrong with what the 12K just showed. ZERO support from ANY other model (even its ensembles/SREFS). But let’s go ahead and ride the 12K NAM. It’s obviously an extreme outlier 3K: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The 3K high res NAM shows absolutely nothing of the sort. Not even close in fact. Given the 12K NAM’s horrid performance over the last few storms color me very skeptical. 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The only models showing anything more than snow showers with the ULL passage is the 12K NAM and SREFS. The 3K high res NAM isn’t as aggressive as the 12K NAM and the SREFS. The newest SREFS run actually cut back from last night. Other than that, every other model (mesos and globals) is snow showers, well under an inch. To me this is nothing more than that, maybe the eastern end of Long Island (twin forks) sees an inch or two?
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Great post about the NBM. NBM has a very bad lag and it’s not done adjusting to the new model consensus we just had, the next update will have even less snow. This one is over IMO. Today at 12z was my benchmark for declaring it dead after all the model runs completed. We are now inside of 3 days and have complete consensus on a total non event. NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, EURO, EURO-AIFS, GFS-GraphCast and the ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) are all in the same agreement
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Full on NAM cave job. And the RGEM and ICON follow with zip zero now too. This was an absolutely horrifying bad, bad, bad performance from the NAM, ICON, CMC/GEPS, RGEM, UKMET and the EURO/EPS. The GFS/GEFS, GFS-GraphCast and EURO-AIFS schooled them. Completely embarrassing
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Yep. Very good Multi-ensemble agreement with the EPS, GEPS and GEFS for the beginning of March
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@Allsnow @Rjay What’s the next date I need to buckle up for? I’ve been buckling and unbuckling so much since the end of November that my buckle strap broke, I need to order a new one so I’m ready….
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How many times are you going to repeat the same lies over and over again? You are a troll and a very bad one at that. I never had a blowtorch winter. That’s a lie, typical for you. I said +2 - +4 for Dec-Mar averaged out. That was my forecast back in November. That’s hardly a blowtorch and I even said that. I never see you continue anything at all to this board other than your token passive-aggressive, trolling commentary. I’ve never seen you put a forecast out. Get a new routine, it’s old
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Now??? What are you talking about??? Did you read my post, I said MARCH. Someone dares to mention warm up and you get triggered. So I guess we’re not allowed to discuss the future on this board unless it’s to forecast cold and snow, March is less than 2 weeks away
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Finally, at long last, it looks like we are going to actually see a legit warm up in March. Good ensemble agreement now. Verbatim, temps we haven’t seen since early-mid November
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I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
snowman19 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The main roads by me are fine but some of the back roads still have snow/sleet/ice on them. Looks like they were just salted and not plowed off. Hoping they plan on going out this morning and plowing them off because mid-40’s with no sun isn’t enough to completely melt them off later. If they refreeze it’s going to be a disaster tomorrow morning -
I would imagine NOAA will schedule a special flight over the Pacific this weekend just for that sampling purpose, given that this is going to potentially be a high impact storm next week for the entire I-95 corridor
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That’s the thing right there that has separated this winter from all the other recent ones over the last several years…the SE ridge. Up until this winter, the tendency has been for the models to miss the SE ridge amplifying/strengthening at the last minute. This winter, with a few exceptions obviously, the tendency has been for the models to overdo the SE ridge and end up de-amplifying it at the last minute
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I would be shocked if the GFS/GEFS and ICON scored a coup on the EURO/EPS, but I guess stranger things have happened. That said, I do think the CMC is too amped as usual and I don’t consider the UKMET to be a very reliable model, but occasionally it will do pretty well. As far as the EURO-AIFS, it seemed to have been doing well this winter up to this point and I saw that it moved NW at 0z, but still a miss. And the GraphCast….I haven’t seen the verification scores yet
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I think today has underperformer written all over it south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex. Daytime, very marginal temps, crappy rates, crappy dendrite snow growth, weak to non existent frontogen. Take the under
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Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably
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Factors other than ENSO ruled the roost this winter. There’s obviously been a huge, large scale change in the North Pacific, arctic and North Atlantic. It’s been a predominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO, cross-polar flow winter. The only thing missing was a strong, juiced STJ, if we had that, this probably would have been a historic, record breaking winter for both snow and cold, definitely rivaling, if not surpassing 95-96, 13-14 and 14-15
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IMO the risk with next week has always been OTS. The cutter talk by some was ridiculous, next week’s pattern in no way, shape or form ever supported a cutter or runner. This is either a big hit or OTS
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Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol
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So does the EURO AI FWIW
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Is anyone concerned about how far out to sea the EURO AI is? IMO that’s the risk with next week. I can definitely see how it can turn into a coast/LI/eastern New England special
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Next Friday (2/21) is when you actually really start to see sun angle be an issue for daytime events with marginal temperatures and light to moderate rates. With heavy rates and/or true arctic air in place with temps well below freezing it doesn’t matter obviously
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30 miles northwest of the city would be Rockland County. It’s going to be well above freezing on Sunday up here, solidly into the upper 30’s
