snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The CMC is even seeing a pronounced warm nose now, it turned it to sleet all the way up to High Point State Park on this latest run. Considering that the globals are very likely underdoing it, can we completely discount models like the high res NAM-NEST? I normally ignore the NAM suite but in special situations like this with a warm nose, it can sometimes actually score a rare coup. FWIW, the extended HRRR and the SREFs are similar to the NAM-NEST as well Link to the NAM-NEST in case anyone wants to look: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/ @SnowGoose69
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I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years
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I’ll bite. IF that look is actually real, again, big if, because we are talking about 2/19 here, it would be primed for a KU event up the coast in the 2/20-2/23 time frame. The caveat obviously being that’s it’s 14 days out and the EPS has shown long range pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mirages that suddenly disappear in the past (i.e., last winter’s long range phantoms)
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After what the GFS just I’m kind of surprised the EURO looks like that. Figured it would bump north
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Agree. If there was a -NAO block or strong 50/50 low to counteract the SE ridge and force everything south/lock the surface high and confluence in, it would be game on Saturday night. I think we are just seeing the beginning of a north trend
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Here comes the last 48 hour north trend @Allsnow warned about yesterday. The surface high leaves and moves OTS before the storm gets here, there’s no -NAO block or 50/50 Low to hold confluence/high in and the AO is positive. Also, you have the SE ridge flexing. If convection blows up in the SE the latent/sensible heat release aloft is going to strengthen the SE ridge even more. There is a decided midlevel warm nose on the GFS now, also one on the RGEM. The midlevel low tracks aren’t good either. I don’t think the north trend is done
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I agree. That midlevel warm nose means business tomorrow. This is an inch of snow, maybe 2 NW of the city then sleet
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The GFS is having issues with snow algorithms. It’s incorrectly showing sleet and freezing rain as snow:
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I’m not doubting the EURO/EPS this close in. I don’t care what the other inferior models like the ICON and UKMET are showing. This is the EURO/EPS “deadly” range. And the GFS/GEFS snow algorithms are having big issues with snow output, specifically showing sleet and freezing rain as snow. See this:
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I’m talking about the GFS sounding in that post, not the NAM’s or the RGEM’s. Just click on the GFS precip type map at the time it’s showing snow and the sounding comes right up on Pivotalweather. Its own sounding doesn’t support the precip type it’s showing. The RGEM did the same, the sounding at the same time doesn’t support its own precip map, showing snow, they are sleet soundings not snow soundings
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The GFS is making the same mistake as the RGEM with the midlevel warm nose. Look at the GFS soundings, those thicknesses and midlevel temps = sleet, not snow. It’s showing all snow when it should be showing sleet. So the 10:1 snow ratio maps are getting inflated. It has a sleet sounding, yet it’s showing all snow. And using the HRRR at this range is definitely not advisable at all. It’s nowhere near its accurate range
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I wonder what the bias-corrected EPS is showing. @purduewx80 any idea? I don’t have the link to that
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@MJO812 @Allsnow I never doubted a stretching/wave reflection event. That wasn’t my argument. My point is that the models have completely lost the major SSWE and subsequent SPV split they were showing, which have tremendous staying power….30-60 days like March and April, 2018. All of March and April had strong high latitude blocking and cold and it didn’t finally breakdown until the beginning of May that year. Wave reflection/stretching events have a limited amount of time for their effects and last nowhere near as long as a major SSWE with a split do. @bluewave has made this point a few times
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^This. With those soundings, it’s going to be sleet not all snow like the RGEM is showing, not with those midlevel temps and thicknesses. No way in hell would it be all snow. Plus, when there’s a strong warm nose event like this one is going to be, the models always underestimate the midlevel warmth at this range. Wouldn’t surprise me if this is a quick transition to sleet after a quick 1/2 inch to an inch of snow
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I never said it means warmth and it’s going to get very cold and blocking is going to develop. I’d have to be an idiot to deny that fact. However, it does mean that the blocking and cold is not going to lock in for a month or two like it may have, had we had a major SSWE and subsequent SPV split, i.e. March/April 2018
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@Allsnow
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You beat me to it. This looks like it’s going to be a very big fail for those on twitter who have been hyping and basically guaranteeing a February, 2018 SSWE redux the last week. A major SSWE and SPV split is starting to look extremely unlikely. Jason Furtado nailed this happening last week:
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The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:
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@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:
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The HRRR has been very consistent run after run today that Connecticut is the sweet spot for tonight. It’s actually been cutting down amounts west and south of where the advisory is. I think it’s probably less than an inch south and west of the advisory area. The HRDPS is showing the exact same thing as the HRRR and has also been very consistent for many runs now HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 HRDPS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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@donsutherland1just posted in the NYC forum about this. The NAO forecasts aren’t matching up, like not even close
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I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app
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Saw that. Let’s see if it holds. As far as this week and next weekend, I think those end up mostly New England events. I think the pattern is not favorable for snowstorms here during that time frame. Not sure about the following week though
