snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Literally every time over the last several winters that we’ve had a “kicker” out west instead of a stout +PNA ridge, it hasn’t ended well here
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What is the EURO AI showing for 2/20?
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Still no change at all IMO. Next week is either a hit or suppressed/OTS
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@Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February: @EastonSN+ Yes, this is a La Niña (-ENSO)
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Joe the clown Bastardi has completely ignored his latest epic bust and has already started to hype a major SSWE in March. He has no shame. Even if we were to see a SSW in March it’s too little, too late, it’ll be spring before any effects are even felt with the lag. Game over, say goodnight and goodbye, adios, fat lady will have sung, bring down the curtain, stick a fork it winter 24-25 at that point, a former winter
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Massive fail. After all the non stop, bombastic hype for close to 2 weeks (from BAMWX, Joe Bastardi, Eric Webb and a few others) about a coming massive SSWE along with a split of the SPV for mid-February, some even invoking February, 2018 as an analog for it. Total flop, bust a rama for the ages
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That’s the risk next week right there, suppression/OTS. Just based on the 500mb, I don’t think next week is a cutter risk
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That map is complete asinine garbage
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Agree with you that the blocking looks very impressive, no doubt about it. That said, it’s do or die time. We are going to have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…
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It’s do or die time. We have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…
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Looks like a nice rain storm for NYC this weekend
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December, 2022. February, 2024
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After the NAM’s monumental, epic bust on the storm last night, I will never, ever trust that model again even for warm nose events. It’s beyond awful and the very minimal utility I thought it had, it doesn’t
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Part of my comment was tongue in cheek, but on a serious note around 2/21 is when you actually start noticing sun angle and its warming effects during the day when you’re standing in it, in your car, in sun facing rooms in your house in the afternoon, etc.
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Playing catch up again. Not surprising given this nowcast with the primary, parent low. This only supports even more WWA and stronger warm nose. There’s a possibility we may actually start as sleet tonight. And the surface high is gone, pushed well off the coast. Sleet fest incoming:
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The SREFS are basically the ensembles for the NAM suite. They absolutely nailed the last event along with the operational NAMs. The global models and even the RGEM and HRRR were complete disasters. They were insisting on NYC getting, 2, 3, even 4+ inches of snow run after run, were way too cold aloft and completely busted the warm nose. It was embarrassing how bad the NAM beat them. Same setup tonight
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The primary/parent low is already well north and projected to keep driving north, as Contentwxguy pointed out, the new SREFS are anemic at best for snow and have a rapid transition to sleet tonight even NW of NYC. The NAM is absolutely believable and it does extremely well with the thermals for warm nose events. The globals and even the HRRR and RGEM completely busted terribly on the event we just had Thursday, the NAM and SREFS schooled them. They kept insisting on 2-3 inches of snow in NYC and the city ended up getting 0.5 before the sleet ping fest started. Similar setup tonight, if not a stronger warm nose. We have an extremely strong midlevel WAA/warm nose event coming up and the midlevel low tracks suck for snow here. I would not be surprised at all if this is a quick 1-2 inch hit of snow before we go into a ping fest, even up where I am in Rockland. IMO tonight will be remembered for sleet, not snow
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@SnowGoose69 @wdrag There is going to be a very strong, potent midlevel warm nose extending well north tonight and we are going to go over to sleet even up to Orange, Sussex and Putnam. In situations like this, the globals and even some mesos will completely miss it and bust horribly on snow totals. It also appears the primary is going to drive quite far north now. Go with the NAM suite/SREFs for situations like this. The RGEM and HRRR can even be way too cold aloft for these, see this past event we just had
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Yea, IMO New England is the place to be for all snow tomorrow night. Agree with Mt. Holly. I think the entire metro area, including north and west goes to sleet after some snow initially. It may be a real extended ping fest tomorrow night and I doubt we ever go over to all rain. Something like a 1-3, 2-4 north and west of the city for the combined snow and sleet totals. This seems to always happen in our area at the last minute and New England cashes in with SWFE’s @LibertyBell Yes. They probably aren’t getting more than 6-8 inches of snow in New England because this storm is going to have the jets on tomorrow night and Sunday morning. It’s flying too fast to produce much more than that. There’s screaming zonal flow
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That’s quite the downgrade. WWA and only 2-4 inches total of snow and sleet for Sussex County, NJ. Can’t say I’m shocked though given what the hi res (3K) NAM, SREFS, extended HRRR and the NBM are showing. If the global models are even showing a substantial warm nose extending north and west of the city at this range, you know it’s going to mean business tomorrow night, since they always underestimate them
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I’m not so sure this is an all snow event even for places like Bergen, Rockland, Westchester. I think they go over to sleet too. This is probably about the only time you will ever hear me say this, but because of this warm nose setup, the 3K NAM may be the way to go tomorrow. The globals aren’t going to pick up on the warm nose strength/location until it’s too late
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Pretty much the only time the NAM (especially the “high res” NAM/NAM-NEST) excels is in events that have a warm nose, like the one coming up this weekend. It’s the rare occasion where it can score a coup
