snowman19

Despite the hype on twitter that there’s going to be a huge Atlantic tropical burst this month, this isn’t looking so hot @PhiEaglesfan712

All they did was show the NAO. Nowhere in that tweet did they say +NAO = warm in the east nor did they even mention temps. I’m not sure what the gripe is, it is in fact showing a +NAO and no it’s not showing big warmth either, which was my point, separate from their tweet. If the NAO is really going to be that positive, then you would need -EPO assistance on the PAC side to avoid warmth in the east, which it evidently has

Take it FWIW, but If (IF) this is correct, pray for a -EPO winter again

Just off the top of my head it definitely did not work in 2013….low Atlantic ACE, cold-neutral ENSO and one of the most positive NAO/AO winters in recorded history

Me either. Up until right now, everything I have seen on this topic has tied high Atlantic ACE, not low Atlantic ACE to a -NAO

We are at the tail end of arctic sea ice melt season, the final numbers for August are not in yet, but as of the last NOAA update on 8/27, although we are at record low sea ice levels, we were solidly higher than the all time record low in 2012. Back on 8/5 the UK Met Office had us in 5th place (lowest), however, they also have yet to update the final numbers for August NOAA: https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover

Here’s how the month’s sunspots finished….and solar flux is back up over 230. Geomag has also really picked up, NOAA now expecting a strong G3 geomag storm

Well defined tropical instability waves showing up in the Nino regions on the SST anomaly charts…..a sign of a rapidly developing La Niña. SSTs in region 3.4 are starting to pass the Niña threshold of -0.5C. EWBs are continuing. I think it’s all but a given that we are going to be in a La Niña this fall into at least the early part of the winter as the models have been projecting for some time now @FPizz Weak

If I had to pick out the things in the PAC that are different from last year at this time besides the obvious (-IOD, earlier developing La Niña, -PMM, -AAM), it would be the total lack of a parade of recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical systems coming off the coast, upwelling and cooling the marine heatwave around Japan like we had last year.

@GaWx As expected, geomag is picking up again

13-14 was one of the strongest ++AO/++NAO winters in history, I believe it was second only to the 88-89 winter. It was 100%, all Pacific driven. We went into a Victoria mode PDO (psuedo +PDO) and had relentless strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO all winter long. The PAC side behaved like an El Niño despite the cold-neutral ENSO that was in place

EURO/EPS hasn’t been what it used to be for awhile now @Stormchaserchuck1 In regards to your last post: “Actually the cold waters off of New Foundland have turned my N. Atlantic SST indicator for Winter NAO negative on the daily. Of course, it's an average of May-Sept, but Erin really did cool that -NAO area a bit.. if you want to make a correlation between ACE and following Winter NAO, like a lot of people do... It's been pretty rare lately to have that whole area from the Davis strait to N. Atlantic below average, but there has been persistent -H5 over the region this Summer. I've found that since 2012 it correlates with a following Winter ridge at 90N.” The last time I remember the North Atlantic being this cold was 2013-14

This is shaping up to be the strongest -IOD event since 16-17

Lowest region 3.4 SSTAs since the tail end of last winter….

The cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight was there way before Irene. It’s been a very stable feature for several months now. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out well over a month ago. The cooling along the east coast and further out in the central North Atlantic was upwelling from Irene yes

@Stormchaserchuck1

Sorry but I totally disagree. There is a reason why Nino and Nina events are measured/defined by what happens in region 3.4 regardless of what 1+2 or 4 or 3 do. I consider last winter to be a weak La Niña. A late-bloomer weak Nina maybe but a weak Nina nonetheless. I know Ray @40/70 Benchmark does too

I haven’t blocked him for the entertainment value. His forecast is the exact same literally every single year without fail for the past 20+ years. “Severe cold and snow in the east from Thanksgiving until New Year’s”. You can set your watch to it, wash, rinse, repeat

Just noticed everyone’s favorite met tweeted the EURO 30 day QPF map

I’d be more concerned with the new EURO 30 day QPF forecast which goes to October 1st. If it’s correct, September is going to be dry as a bone on the east coast from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast…..

Looks dry for the foreseeable future. If this continues through September we will end up in the same boat we were in with last fall’s drought

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity too

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped