snowman19

Agree about the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max evolution. At least through mid-February a major SSWE seems very unlikely. If one were to occur at the beginning of March, with the lag, we would be looking at late March (spring) before it would downwell enough to affect the tropopause….too late

I’m not so sure we suddenly go into a -AO/-NAO blocking pattern during the last week of February and into early-mid March like some are musing on twitter. Besides the very strong SPV and ice cold stratosphere, the La Niña years that went -AO/-NAO in March had legit major to even historic (2018), SSWEs. None of the models so far are showing that at all, and I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Very strong +NAO regime coming up as we go into February @Stormchaserchuck1

Why are you posting yesterday’s 12z run?

@Allsnow The EURO/EPS wants nothing to do with a snow event this weekend, even north and west of NYC

This winter has fit a classic front-loaded Niña winter to a tee. Cold from the end of November through the end of January, then the canonical patterns kicks in by the start of February. Although we have had nowhere near the amount of snow 2010-11 had, we are following that front-loaded Niña winter pattern very closely

IMO, this late peak argues for a latter effect of La Niña on the pattern. I don’t see how a late peak argues for the pattern to end earlier. That doesn’t make sense to me. @bluewave pointed out that aside from March 2018, our March snow patterns have failed in recent years

This La Niña is not going to be denied. Region 3.4 is dropping like a rock, we are at the lowest of this entire event, moderate on the dallies, approaching -1.5C. The subsurface has also dropped the last week. There’s also a very strong EWB projected to continue right into early February

The NAO is also going to be positive as hell. Nothing about that setup screams big snow/ice south of I-84. No mechanism to stop it from moving further north in time

@Rjay This is looking like a SWFE. These almost always end up being New England events. The GFS being the furthest south at this range is no surprise at all, it’s destined to adjust further north. These always end up moving further north as we get closer in time. Would not surprise me at all if this ends up being an I-84 north snow/ice storm with very minimal onset frozen to rain south of there. We’ve seen this play out time and time again over the years…..

Region 3.4 dropping like a rock, the lowest of this event….approaching -1.5C. We are now at moderate on the dailies

If Paul Roundy is right about the tropical forcing progression, this happens at mid-February and we don’t go into deep winter again like Ryan Kane is saying:

Twitterland has had us buckled up since Thanksgiving. I’ve gotten 6 feet of modeled digital snow and twitter snow so far this winter

That’s something to look at in the spring for clues to what ENSO does next winter

@Stormchaserchuck1

I could say the same about snow but I won’t. And not once did I say the word “warmth” you keep saying that lol

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into next month

February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February

With the exception of March, 2018, which was driven by a record breaking, historic SSWE in mid-February; resulted in severe -NAO/-AO blocking and a major arctic outbreak, March’s over the last 10+ years have not been kind to us snow wise. Does that change this March? I have no idea

I think one thing that will be different in February and is something we haven’t seen all winter long is the SE ridge finally making an appearance. Ever since the cold pattern kicked in the day after Thanksgiving, the SE ridge has been absent. @bluewave has already mentioned it a few times but it does fit February Niña climo as does -PNA

Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all

The difference now is that we are about to see both the NAO/AO go very positive. The stratosphere is projected to get record cold and the SPV is going to go on steroids and is going to couple with the troposphere. That coupling is something we haven’t seen thus far. The ++NAO going to allow the SE ridge to really flex, especially with the ridge way off the west coast