snowman19

Copernicus C3S FWIW:

@40/70 Benchmark Very good call on this being a CP La Niña months ago. You never bought into this being an EP event at any point in time

He is already doing his yearly wash, rinse, repeat ‘cold and snowy east coast from Thanksgiving through New Year’s Day’ hype. I have no doubt whatsoever that he will be predicting below average temps and above average snow for the east coast, December - March by the end of November. It’s the time of year where he peddles likes, follows, retweets and subscription money from his I-95 weenie base

Agree. Warmest waters still in MJO 4-6. That’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. And besides the marine heatwave there and in the North PAC around Japan, the heatwave around New Foundland in the Atlantic just refuses to budge

@Gawx And just looking at the anomalies, we should definitely see the +QBO continue to strengthen more this month…

It’s almost as unbelievable as you being a useless, clueless troll who contributes nothing!!

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:

Credit where credit is due….even for him. I remember another good call of his back at the end of January, 2011, he said all of the high latitude blocking was about to completely break down in early February and declared that winter was about to end. The weenies wanted to throw rocks at him and were ripping him apart at the time. He turned out to be exactly right

@Bluewave On a side note, you were correct about the Atlantic going right back into a +AMO look and that New Foundland marine heatwave is relentless

Unfortunately the MEI may not update for awhile but I assume it’s deep into Niña mode

IMO the North Pacific pseudo +PDO is what directly lead to the -EPO blocking and +TNH that winter

As far as snow, it was one of the worst in 30 years for the NYC metro area. Epically bad. November had nothing. December had 2 minor events both washed away by rain. January had a trace. February had a minor event early that month, washed away by very heavy rain, 2/22 had 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, which was the biggest event of the entire winter, then a very minor event the last day of the month and that was it, winter was over. Nothing in March. Nothing in April. 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12, 19-20, 22-23….the 6 worst winters since 1994

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter:

Did you actually bother to read my post? I was talking about snow in NYC metro area not temperatures. It was easily one of the worst winters for snow in the last 30 years there

I’ve thought it was BS ever since the super El Niño back in 15-16. I’m sure you remember it well. Judah was predicting and hyping a very cold, arctic winter for the east because his index showed way above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October. Even as ENSO 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, he just kept chiving on and going with it

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

Models getting more aggressive with the trade wind bursts in region 3.4. We are probably solidly into a weak CP Niña by the end of this month. Also, the -IOD and -PMM appear to be gaining strength

IMO we are canonical Niña in February. 20-21 would have never had the 2/21 blocking if it wasn’t for the solar minimum, again IMO

Latest SSTs: Radio flux is off the charts…over 310 now. Sunspots well over 200. Solar/geomag states:

Judah Cohen:

Judah Cohen