snowman19

@40/70 Benchmark I know you’re not considering ONI, but it looks like we are going to see some considerable warming with a WWB in the eastern to central ENSO regions. Region 1+2 is warming very quickly right now. That absolutely does not support an east-based event. Regions 3 and 3.4 are also going to see warming push in. I still feel like we may end up cold-neutral in the ONI sense, it’s very late for a substantial Niña event (SSTs) to take shape. Either way, this is going to be interesting to watch over the next 2 months

@bluewave It appears we are going to see a strengthening of the already strongly negative PDO this month. Warming is continuing in the northwest PAC near Japan and the western Aleutians while there is rapid cooling in the GOA, the eastern part of the basin along the west coast and off Baja (-PMM) This is not screaming -WPO, -EPO, +PNA to me. Furthermore, we’re at the time of the year where the trade winds begin to collapse over the equatorial Indian Ocean as the Indian and Asian monsoons terminate, we are going to see SSTs warming up across the maritime continent and the eastern IO and additions cooling across ENSO. However, a potent WWB is forecast across the central and eastern part of the basin which will likely warm up the waters even more. Also, a prolonged EWB will park across the western basin and maritime continent which would fuel a -IOD. -IOD/-ENSO is only going to enhance the background Niña circulation state and the Maritime Continent (MJO 4-5-6) convective forcing

Great find

For anyone interested, here is a very good write up by @Isotherm on geomag/solar and the NAO. Also touches on QBO and ENSO influences: https://lightinthestorm.com/archives/tag/solar

FWIW this is the new C3S snowfall projection for winter

@bluewave did a very good job of explaining why the PAC side did what it did in 13-14. Back in the fall of 2013, HM nailed the very strong +AO/+NAO that winter. He attributed it to the geomag, solar and QBO. The North Atlantic SSTs in the fall were kind of a good giveaway as to what was about to happen too IMO

Huge PDO configuration difference. There was a cold pool where the marine heatwave by Japan is now

Looks like a new sunspot region has just emerged, have to see what it does….

I mean we’ve been in a default La Niña background pattern for years and nothing has changed in the PAC so……

My analogs are +NAO +AO +WPO +EPO -PNA MJO 4-6 -PDO. In honor of that troll Snoski14

If there is to be an official trimonthly La Niña 24-25, it needs to make moves NOW. We are at the out of time point here. If this slacks off again for any extended period, I think we end up with a cold-neutral winter

Not much of a surprise with -ENSO but the model runs back in the spring showing a +IOD were a massive fail And this solar cycle continues to way overperform

Severely positive, no. But a solidly positive NAO for DJFM? Absolutely

Stop ruining this thread with your token, useless garbage. Adults are talking in here. Go slither back to the NYC forum and troll there

Just to illustrate my point, you can visualize the zone between the warm/cold SSTs where the jet is going to want to position itself over the North Atlantic

The SSTs in the North Atlantic are very highly suggestive of a +NAO winter. We haven’t seen anything even close to a tripole since May….a bad sign. Then you have the New Foundland marine heatwave. Not only that, you have cold SSTs from Davis Straight, south of Greenland and over to Iceland, then the New Foundland warm pool south of it. That temperature gradient between the warm/cold SSTs is a differential zone for a juiced up, fast (zonal) Atlantic jet stream to position itself. IMO the record low arctic sea ice we have now is also playing a role in the overall +NAO tendency. Current antecedent conditions are favorable for a +AO/NAM….La Niña/-ENSO, high geomag/sunpots/radio flux, +QBO, results in a cold, strong SPV once into cold season

There’s a few models showing it as a “hybrid” event by winter with the cold anomalies in ENSO regions 3, 3.4 and 4, while 1+2 is neutral

A trough over Japan with SSTs this warm? Color me very skeptical. While there is certainly validity to the “pattern causes the SSTs” argument, when you have SSTs this anomalously warm, they start feeding back into the long wave pattern. @bluewave

As depicted, very clearly not an east-based Niña despite what Twitter may be saying….

I think the record low arctic sea ice is contributing to the NAO’s behavior in recent winters

Hate to disagree, but IMO, as of right now, I very seriously doubt a -WPO/-EPO winter. I think we can both agree that RNA is going to dominate though. Also, as of now, I think +NAO/+AO dominates. Not my final thought however, I’ll give my final guess in November

The SSTs around Japan are actually ridiculously warm now, right after that TC passage, it warmed right back up and rapidly so. That is a classic +WPO/-PDO signature

This is the 1st time in a long time that Nino region 4 is negative

Agree about the ENSO configuration. If you compare the subsurface now to 2017 (a true east-based event), it’s not even remotely close

The Atlantic continues to look deader than a doornail. If we end up below 100 ACE for the season, it will be one of the most epic forecast busts of all time for a lot of people….