snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Just to add, while it’s certainly possible that the solar cycle peaks this month, you typically don’t see this level of CME activity as a solar cycle is just about to start descending. Again, it will take months to know for sure if this is actually the peak happening right now
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The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV
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All one has to do is look at the huge warming of the Indian Ocean (and -IOD development) over the last month. That’s the elephant in the room right now. The overall La Niña, -PDO atmospheric background state is NOT going to change in a big way with that setup. It’s just going to potentiate the MJO 4-6 tropical forcing and standing wave regardless of whether the region 3.4 ONI is cold-neutral or weak La Niña this winter. Some of us overlooked that fact last winter and instead decided to believe the long range weeklies and monthlies and it was a very huge mistake. Fatal error and resulted in really bad busts
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Look at how much the Indian Ocean has warmed since October. This is only going to serve to reinforce the strong La Niña background state and tropical forcing (MJO 4-6) along with the -IOD
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We’ve been hearing that the solar cycle has peaked since July and those claims have obviously been completely wrong. We won’t know if November is actually the peak for several months
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Closing in on mid-November and 70’s behind a “cold” front….
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@bluewave Just like the stronger SE ridge/WAR correction on the Atlantic side, the correction to a stronger -PNA and +EPO on the PAC side continues on today’s modeling. Over and over again
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So shocking. Another -NAO hooking up with the WAR/SE ridge that the models underestimate, then get stronger and stronger as we move forward in time. Looks very likely that the uber dry pattern continues right through the tail end of this month and the drought goes on unabated. The measly .20-.30 of rain that fell last night will get vaporized this afternoon. We have smoked the 2001 late summer/fall drought, left it completely in the dust
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All I know, from what I read on twitter, is Judah said Siberian snowcover buildup looked promising around mid-October, then it took a dump and completely stopped the last 2 weeks of October. I believe it finished just “normal” and he was very disappointed
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Normally that’s completely true, but given how this entire fall (really since the end of August) has gone so far, would anyone actually be surprised if that doesn’t work out?
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This fall is and has been finding every way possible not to rain. The new RGEM barely has anything for the metro area now and the late week “event” has turned into a nothing burger. 12z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111012&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Wxbell is purposely skewing the maps cold. There’s no other explanation. They are totally corrupt, lead by Joe Bastardi. Without the weenies forking them over the subscription money, they’d go bankrupt
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That’s all PAC maritime air. Look at the vortex/Low over AK (+EPO). The arctic is completely cut off. All the -NAO block is doing is trapping the PAC air underneath it
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
snowman19 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
The long range ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) want to keep a big low/vortex in AK right into late November. That has to change IMO if we are to see some true arctic cold get into the pattern -
The new National blend of models is showing around 0.3 area wide which seems reasonable. Better than nothing I guess. But it’s all going to get vaporized once the sun comes out and winds pick up on Monday. I don’t think it does much if anything to mitigate the fire threat and it’s obviously not going to come close to touching the drought. Looks like a total miss now for late next week
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I think at this point, an above normal (temp) winter looks extremely likely. Snowfall is obviously the hardest to predict because it only takes one rogue big storm in an otherwise total crap snow pattern to skew the entire winter season. We saw that in 15-16
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New NMME:
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Tomorrow into Monday has underperformer written all over it, the models have backed way off from what they were showing a few days ago. These dry feedback patterns are very difficult to break once they are in place. And yea, late next week looks like a miss. Once again, the SE ridge is hooking up to a south based -NAO. The never ending cycle. The EPS was never on board for a wet pattern on the east coast the next 15 days which was a big red flag
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Going to have hope so because the models continue to get drier and drier with Sun/Mon
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
snowman19 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
When the op GFS is the only model showing it, it’s probably a bad sign….. -
Once again, as has been the case for the last several years, it’s going to all depend on the Pacific. If that’s crap we are screwed even with a -NAO
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Given how this has gone since late August would anyone actually be surprised if the late next week possibility turns into nothing more than showers? And you know it’s been real bad when we are looking forward to .2-.4 of rain Sun/Mon
