snowman19

Which ones of the high ACE Nina’s were also high solar and geomag, +QBO, -PDO?

This may be the very beginning stages of an eventual flip to a negative AMO. We won’t know for sure until next summer. The transition stage normally starts in the tropical Atlantic first, then moves north, throughout the rest of the Atlantic over time. As of now, the AMO remains strongly positive

One of my analogs, 01-02, had 17 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, ACE of 110

2014 was obvious once the PDO went ++. You knew the +PNA/-EPO/-WPO was coming. 13-14, though technically -PDO, the configuration resembled +PDO and it was as textbook a +TNH pattern as you will ever see

IMO the forecasts for 25-30 named storms are probably in peril

IMO 17-18 was another easy one. It already tipped its hand by this point in time and very little changed that fall. The overall synoptic picture never stopped being a very favorable one from August on….

Definitely interesting. My guess is that 10-11 would have been way different had there been high solar flux/high geomag, in fact I feel very confident in that. That article is still informative though, thank you again, good read. Also wonder if the weaker +AMO and lack of a New Foundland warm pool played a role? These are the main factors I’m looking at going into this winter that IMO will be the main drivers and need to be monitored going into November: 1) High Solar/geomag 2) Weak La Niña (looking more likely to be central based), also will be very well coupled as evidenced by the MEI/strong Niña background state 3) -PDO 4) -PMM 5) +QBO (possibly a strong event) 6) ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool 7) -IOD 8) MJO, very likely to see phases 4-6 being dominant again given the SSTs, -IOD/Nina combo 9) Very low arctic sea ice; I believe it’s contributing to the predominant +NAO/+AO we’ve had in recent years 10) Any possible stratospheric effects from the April Ruang eruptions, although likely to be weak effects given they were only a cumulative VEI 5, 11) AGW

Thanks. Never seen that article before

Honestly, I think this winter is going to be a relatively easy one to predict, in fact, I think this is going to be one of the few easy ones, (i.e. 02-03) we’ve seen, without many question marks. The people on twitter who are saying that it’s “going to be a very hard one to predict” are the same people who look for excuses to predict a very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast every year. I’m reserving my final judgment for November because things can change of course and it’s foolish to make a winter forecast right now IMO. That said, I don’t expect very much at all in terms of the main global ‘players’ to change between now and November. I think this winter is already showing its hand pretty clearly

Don’t disagree that they can have *some* stratospheric impact, however if you want a classic “Pinatubo” stratosphere, with the biggest effect, you want a tropical volcanic eruption greater than a VEI 5

Even a very strong El Niño couldn’t flip the PDO, it actually got more strongly negative. With a La Niña developing, I very seriously doubt TC’s moving through are going to do anything but cause transient, temporary cooling then right back to the marine heatwave. We’ve seen this happen already. SSTs that anomalously warm aren’t just going away, it would take months of a constant assault. The North Pacific High just keeps rebuilding over and over, as long as that feedback cycle continues, the PDO is going to continue to be strongly negative. The PMM also failed to respond to the Nino, that was one of the reasons for the huge disconnect with the MEI last winter. We’ve also heard how many times now that the AMO is about to flip negative, when in fact it’s just gotten stronger positive. Kind of like how JB has been saying that arctic sea ice is going to increase lol It’s akin to the MJO….how many times in the last 5+ years have we seen failed attempt after failed attempt at phases 8-1-2? It just stays in phases 4-6….why? Because that’s where the warmest SSTs are. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the strongest convection/forcing where the warmest SSTs are despite what a climate model or even ENSO may say as we saw last winter. Now that the IOD is going negative along with a Niña, that just gives more support of the MJO in those phases On an unrelated note, I know you follow it, but it looks like the sunspot number for August is going to be over 230. Also appears that the QBO is going to see a rather large rise this month Edit: @40/70 Benchmark I don’t think a volcanic eruption that far north would have an effect on the stratosphere even if it were June. Tropical volcanoes are the ones that do it

I believe to have a significant climate effect it needs to be a tropical volcano that reaches the stratosphere with a VEI of “high-end” 5 or above. I defer to @Volcanic Winter

I would be shocked if we don’t see a trimonthly weak La Niña (ONI). Cold-neutral is a given, that’s happening and IMO the probability of a weak La Niña is growing more and more likely by the day

Nothing to stop it either. Niña/-IOD favors it right there (MC)

We are outperforming the solar prediction made by NOAA at the beginning of this month by so much it’s not funny. Both sunspots and solar flux. Geomag is also way overperforming original predictions

*Take note*

The MEI shows how well the atmosphere is coupled to ENSO. Given the new data, I’m more confident than ever that even if we end up with a cold-neutral/La Nada ONI, the synoptic pattern won’t reflect that

@Raindancewx Even if the ONI does in fact stay cold-neutral this winter, the atmosphere wants to be in La Niña mode. The MEI, OLR, AAM, tropical forcing/MJO are all solidly in Niña territory

It was absolutely the PDO, especially 14-15, when it was off the charts positive. Even though the PDO was technically negative for 13-14, the configuration basically mirrored a +PDO. Bluewave pointed that out about a month ago. That winter was classic +TNH

Mesoscale lake-effect. Synoptic scale, that winter was awful

When there is a distinct absence of an ENSO signal, then solar and extra tropical forcings play a much bigger role than they normally would (i.e. 01-02)

If this winter does go cold-neutral ENSO, then we are at the mercy of a very high solar flux/geomag, strong -PDO, -PMM, a relentless MJO in phases 4-6, -IOD, ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, low arctic sea ice, etc. I don’t see how that would end well….

I’m seeing 1983-84 popping up as an analog on twitter and I get why…people want the very cold December. There are major problems with it though, first and foremost it was +PDO, second, it was volcanic. I guess you can make the argument that we had the major eruptions back in April, however, this year is not on the level of a 1983 or a Pinatubo volcanic stratosphere