snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It would not surprise me at all if the drought continues right through November, in fact I think it’s very likely
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The arctic air is staying locked on the other side of the hemisphere through at least the start of November. If we reach the end of next month and it’s still there with no signs of it migrating to our side of the pole that will be a very bad omen. A continued drought through the end of November would be another bad omen
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The new extended ensembles are bone dry for early-mid November in the east….
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The new extended ensembles are drier than a frigging bone for early-mid November in the east
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I was joking with you and Anthony about 11-12. I do think 01-02 may be an analog though given the solar max/very high solar flux, -PDO, -ENSO, cold GOA and Bering Sea and the very dry fall
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That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this continues next month then we have a dry winter, we have problems come spring…..big problems
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We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it in the boundary layer
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Ditto for the GEPS. Dry as far as the eye can see. It has been so anomalously dry since late August it’s not funny. It seems we have gone into a dry feedback cycle, something we really haven’t seen in the northeast in a very long time. If we get to the end of November and it’s still status quo, it’s probably a real bad sign for precip this winter. Patterns this anomalous usually don’t magically do a 180 and flip come December
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Are you naturally this stupid or did you have to take a class?
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Don’t even bother. He has no idea what he’s talking about and is nothing but a troll
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My analog for this winter is 2011-2012. That would fit perfect :-)
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In that post I stated clearly “for those who follow it, I don’t”. I know some on here don’t have twitter so I gave a FWIW update in case they were wondering what Cohen’s thoughts were at the time, in case they were interested. When his theory first came out, I thought it had validity, then I saw the SAI’s record over the last 15+ years and changed my opinion Edit: @George001 How do you explain the SAI’s miserable failure for the 14-15 winter? Record high SAI yet one of the strongest ++AO/++NAO winters on record? By Judah’s theory, that should have been a -AO/-NAO orgy
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I live rent free in your head lol Must have my posts saved on a file on your home computer lol
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Because I knew what was coming next to prove a point…he always does. Doom and gloom then bliss. Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde. As predictable as the rising sun. I started thinking the SAI was BS back during the 15-16 super El Niño. He was going for an arctic cold winter for the east because Siberian snowcover build up was very high. The hype was off the charts even as region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November. Then winter happened and that wasn’t the only example over the last 15 years….
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Voodoo IMO
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Not surprising given the very strong Niña background state
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Very good model consensus now (GEFS EPS GEPS) for the beginning of November
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The thing is, the 500mb pattern since 9/1 till now doesn’t match up at all with 2013. It’s night and day different. Apples and oranges between then and now at 500mb
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Done purposely. Wxbell/JB wants the all their flawed maps so they can hype a cold and snowy east coast winter year after year and feed their weenie base for subscription money. That’s the only way they are able to survive…..hyping a cold/snowy east coast and denying climate change. 99% of their paid subscribers are I-95 weenies. They are laughing all the way to the bank
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Once September started, we left 2013 in the dust. The pattern hasn’t even been remotely close to that fall since
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The only one I saw who suggested that the PDO might flip positive was JB back in the spring and early summer when he was having his 14-15 analog for this winter orgies
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November definitely looks like it’s going to be a warmer and drier than normal month
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@40/70 Benchmark @Typhoon Tip Here is a 2021 study on arctic sea ice loss and QBO effects. Per the study: “The stratospheric polar vortex in the northern hemisphere weakens in response to Arctic sea-ice loss during QBO easterly but strengthens in response to Arctic sea-ice loss during QBO westerly. The polar vortex state is not found to be as strongly modulated by ENSO as the QBO. During El Niño with QBO westerly however, there is an observed change in seasonality of the tropospheric response to sea-ice loss compared to the neutral ENSO state” https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021AGUFM.A15I1771W/abstract
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Yes, I think it definitely affects the NAO too. No argument there. I think it’s more of a potentiating factor on the AO when other +AO factors are present. This year, I have to agree with @Typhoon Tip that we very likely see a dominant +AO given the -ENSO/solar/+QBO/low arctic sea ice states
