snowman19

I realize and he’s doing the same thing JB does IMO

That’s fine. Learn from it. Then admit defeat and say “my forecast failed because of XYZ” instead of saying my forecast was right and I had the right idea but….JB loves doing that when when he busts

It’s him finding a way out of his forecast. Just an excuse. He’s been hyping a huge Atlantic hurricane season since the spring. You see this tactic with winter forecasts, they will find anything to say “my forecast would have been right if it wasn’t for the completely unexpected, unseen X that happened, no one could have possibly seen this coming!” @bluewave has shown how strong the large scale Niña like forcing has been for months now. It will not be 100% of the time and that applies to any type of forcing, there will be small scale temporary/transient anomalies and deviations from time to time

Completely agree. Everything I’m seeing globally supports a warmer and drier than normal fall (SON)

Solar and geomag don’t even remotely resemble 10-11, like not even close. Solar/geomag do not match 20-21 either. No models are or have been showing an east-based Niña, so no go on 17-18 and now there is a big question in my mind as to whether we even see an official La Niña

Those analogs are way better than some of the ones getting hyped on Twitter right now (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21). All one has to do is check the ENSO state and you know the exact analogs certain people are going to pick before it even happens. Just like when there’s an El Niño, you know 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are coming. Literally every time without fail….

The ridiculous New Foundland warm pool is definitely a match for 07-08

Weather is always humbling. If this does in fact turn into a cold-neutral/La Nada, it definitely humbled me as I thought a weak La Niña was the very likely outcome just a few weeks ago. Is it AGW related? Quite possibly. The other humbling phenomenon may well be the Atlantic tropical season…..

I’m starting to doubt that we ever see an official (trimonthly) La Niña event now. I know Raindance is too. A central based cold-neutral event is beginning to look more likely. We are starting to run out of time. A solid Niña atmospheric background state is a very good bet though

The MJO has been stuck in 4-6 for years. Why? That’s where the warmest SSTs are…in those phases. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the convection/forcing right over the warmest SSTs. The -IOD further supports convection in that area

It will take quite the historic Sept-Nov to live up there some of the 230+ ACE forecasts that were put out back in the spring and early summer (i.e. JB)

It’s nowhere near becoming -AMO right now, not even close. We won’t know if the AMO is truly flipping until next summer

If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences

Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was

@GaWx It’s starting to look like a good chance that this solar cycle ends up stronger than the 01-02 solar max of Cycle 23….

I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that

“The driving force behind these severe weather outbreak is the enhanced or stronger than normal Pacific jet stream. THAT feature is being enhanced by the record setting extremely positive QBO. As a result the jet stream velocities especially the mid and upper levels are enhanced. As the Pacific jet drives these significant powerful weather systems into the West Coast... They will move across the Plains the Midwest and towards the East Coast over the next two weeks” It’s looking likely that we see a strong +QBO this winter…

@GaWx The strength of the +QBO is important too. DT has always argued that if a QBO gets strongly positive it directly strengthens and adds velocity to the PAC jet. We saw a few examples of this, most recently in the 16-17 winter when the PAC jet was roaring. DT warned that it was going to happen and he ended up being spot on DT: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile

“Extremely” positive maybe not, but right now, I see no reason not to expect a solidly positive NAO winter (DJFM)

Simple, the 1980’s were during the -AMO cycle. 1995 was the first year of the +AMO cycle

If you compare 1995 (classic tripole/New Foundland cold pool, warm SSTs north of there from Greenland and just south of Iceland to Northern Europe) to now, it’s night and day. We now have the New Foundland marine heatwave with the cold SSTs north of there, extending from Greenland and Iceland to Europe. That’s a very strong +NAO signature and supports a roided up Atlantic zonal jet running right along that cold/warm SST temperature differential

Here is a post I found, (16-17 winter) he attributed the roaring PAC jet directly to the strong +QBO: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

I remember distinctly that he said strong positive QBO leads to a raging PAC jet. I’m looking for it now. He had a specific range on numbers

Besides the La Niña, solar/geomag, MJO and -PDO, I think another important factor to watch is the QBO. I remember years ago, DT found good evidence that strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging PAC jet. I forget what his actual ranges were for that though….