snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I’ll leave that one to @GaWx He’s done a bunch of research into it
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It sure has…over 250 and climbing. There’s a chance we go over 300
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So we are going to end up with a perfectly normal October SAI. Not that it mattered anyway. We spoke about it before but 14-15 rendered the entire high SAI = -AO and -NAO argument bogus. A record high SAI in 2014 and one of the most positive AO and NAO winters on record
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@Gawx
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We have left the record dry fall of 2001 in the dust
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Dry as a bone the next 2 days with super low dews. Inevitably some moron will toss a cigarette out of their car and start a huge brush fire. Never fails
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You were right, didn’t take long for the +AMO look to come back. And the dry period since this fall has been astounding, when you compare it to other dry -PDO’s:
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Thoughts on the +EPO/Bering Sea vortex?
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Typical Nina/-IOD forcing developing @Bluewave
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If the overnight ensemble runs are correct about the upper level pattern at the beginning of November, whatever tropical development happens will have no way of making it up the coast. Strong westerlies all the way into the Deep South. Any TC development would get shunted right OTS. Not much of a surprise though as that is typical of November
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I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now
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Which would not fit November climo at all. The westerlies are normally way too far south at that point
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This fall (really since August 20th) has made 01-02 look like the wettest fall in history
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@Bluewave So shocking, MJO 4-6 dominating. Here we go again….
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Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point
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The absolute worst case scenario is a persistent Bering Sea vortex. Complete shutdown pattern. Even an AK vortex isn’t as bad and can be somewhat workable for you guys up there at your latitude….
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I’ve never had well water so I know nothing about it. Just repeating what he told me last night
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We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it
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Even more troubling than that map showing the ridiculous dryness since late August, this is definitely something you don’t want to see. The ensembles are developing a huge Bering Sea vortex at the beginning of November. If that’s a sign of things to come, ooof
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And bone dry as far as the eye can see on all ensembles
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IMO 16-17 was helped by a neutral/slight positive PDO
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Getting hit by a hurricane, death and destruction is fun?? Huh?
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The Euro suite has been underestimating +EPO’s and showing huge -EPO ridges over AK that never actually happen for several years now. The beat goes on
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Westerly anomalies behind a fast moving MJO wave is not going to result in a full scale shift of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. You would need STRONG, sustained, honest to goodness WWBs (i.e. El Niño) to do that. We are obviously not getting an El Niño this winter or even a warm-La Nada. All that’s going to happen (and is being shown) is transient, temporary westerly anomalies behind MJO wave convection, not true WWBs. This is not even going to be close to a true trade wind reversal/WWB event, like not even in the ballpark. Webb clearly eludes to this if you read the entirety of his tweet. Once the MJO goes back to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent, phases 4-6, which is what the models are showing, EWBs and cooling is going to start anew. The MEI, RONI, PDO, IOD, PMM and SOI are all deep into La Niña mode. All one has to do is look at the global long wave circulation and OLR over the last several months till now to see that the atmosphere is very clearly into a La Niña state. And the subsurface under region 3.4 is still cold
