snowman19

I saw a rumor that he’s going warmer than average with below normal snow on Twitter Wednesday night. Guess it was true. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it come November or reverses and goes cold and snowy. My guess is that he’s cold and snowy by Thanksgiving….

Right. Assuming that’s really what is happening, it would have an effect on next winter. It’s still strongly positive at the moment and I don’t see it having any effect at all on this winter, it’s starting to happen way too late for that and it’s going to be a slow process, again, assuming this is the case

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer

If we do actually end up seeing an official trimonthly La Niña (I’m not sure we do anymore) there’s no models showing it being east-based. I think we can take an east-based event off the table

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting

That would be them. Just saw the bogus ice age wxbell run for DJFM get posted about an hour ago

Correct. And not everyone thinks this winter is going to suck. The weenie twitter clowns are posting the CFS and saying the “analogs” are 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21. Normal yearly routine for them….

I realize and he’s doing the same thing JB does IMO

That’s fine. Learn from it. Then admit defeat and say “my forecast failed because of XYZ” instead of saying my forecast was right and I had the right idea but….JB loves doing that when when he busts

It’s him finding a way out of his forecast. Just an excuse. He’s been hyping a huge Atlantic hurricane season since the spring. You see this tactic with winter forecasts, they will find anything to say “my forecast would have been right if it wasn’t for the completely unexpected, unseen X that happened, no one could have possibly seen this coming!” @bluewave has shown how strong the large scale Niña like forcing has been for months now. It will not be 100% of the time and that applies to any type of forcing, there will be small scale temporary/transient anomalies and deviations from time to time

Completely agree. Everything I’m seeing globally supports a warmer and drier than normal fall (SON)

Solar and geomag don’t even remotely resemble 10-11, like not even close. Solar/geomag do not match 20-21 either. No models are or have been showing an east-based Niña, so no go on 17-18 and now there is a big question in my mind as to whether we even see an official La Niña

Those analogs are way better than some of the ones getting hyped on Twitter right now (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21). All one has to do is check the ENSO state and you know the exact analogs certain people are going to pick before it even happens. Just like when there’s an El Niño, you know 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are coming. Literally every time without fail….

The ridiculous New Foundland warm pool is definitely a match for 07-08

Weather is always humbling. If this does in fact turn into a cold-neutral/La Nada, it definitely humbled me as I thought a weak La Niña was the very likely outcome just a few weeks ago. Is it AGW related? Quite possibly. The other humbling phenomenon may well be the Atlantic tropical season…..

I’m starting to doubt that we ever see an official (trimonthly) La Niña event now. I know Raindance is too. A central based cold-neutral event is beginning to look more likely. We are starting to run out of time. A solid Niña atmospheric background state is a very good bet though

The MJO has been stuck in 4-6 for years. Why? That’s where the warmest SSTs are…in those phases. The 31C isotherm is right there. The atmosphere will always put the convection/forcing right over the warmest SSTs. The -IOD further supports convection in that area

It will take quite the historic Sept-Nov to live up there some of the 230+ ACE forecasts that were put out back in the spring and early summer (i.e. JB)

It’s nowhere near becoming -AMO right now, not even close. We won’t know if the AMO is truly flipping until next summer

If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences

Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was

@GaWx It’s starting to look like a good chance that this solar cycle ends up stronger than the 01-02 solar max of Cycle 23….

I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that

“The driving force behind these severe weather outbreak is the enhanced or stronger than normal Pacific jet stream. THAT feature is being enhanced by the record setting extremely positive QBO. As a result the jet stream velocities especially the mid and upper levels are enhanced. As the Pacific jet drives these significant powerful weather systems into the West Coast... They will move across the Plains the Midwest and towards the East Coast over the next two weeks” It’s looking likely that we see a strong +QBO this winter…