snowman19

What is your take on the new models showing a “Canadian warming” of the stratosphere at the end of this month? I know you follow that closely

We know. You will be tracking it till Saturday night, maybe Sunday lol

The weekend has not surprisingly trended into a nothing burger. We were trying to depend on a perfect +PNA spike in a perfect location with perfect downstream wave spacing and amping. A completely thread the needle setup…No -NAO and no 50/50 low and very fast northern stream flow, no southern stream involvement/phasing. It’s been doomed for awhile IMO

That’s the Niña standing wave and the reason why I think we go -PNA mode around the 2nd week of January as the entire “Nino like” NPAC pattern retros

Good discussion Don. I think we see a -PNA develop by the 2nd week of January. It’s pretty clear that the big “Nino like” NPAC trough is going to retro and I believe we see a -PNA take shape right around that time frame. The tropical PAC is very clearly in full Niña mode and it’s not going to be denied IMO

The fantasy on twitter is that Saturday is going to somehow miraculously, magically turn into some massive KU for the I-95 corridor and all the models are somehow missing it. This isn’t 2004, technology and the models are way advanced from the days when a massive snowstorm would just “pop up” out of nowhere 48 hours before an event. If this was actually going to be a big coastal snowstorm, one of the models would be showing that by now, which NONE of them are. And most importantly, the pattern in no way, shape or form supports such a scenario and no amount of wishcasting is going to change that

Even up this way in Rockland I doubt any snow at all accumulates tomorrow night. That WWA is more for the glazing/freezing rain threat. And agree about next Saturday. Color me very, very skeptical of any meaningful snow event

So does Dr. 18z GFS

The region 1+2 warming is all consistent with a CP/Modoki Nina event

@Stormchaserchuck1

I knew as soon as JB started hyping a big east coast snowstorm for next weekend and started hemming and hawing about how the models were wrong about any warmup in the east between Christmas and New Year’s “my hurricane analogs say!!” It was definitely doomed. That guy is the ultimate kiss of death for winter in the east

I did it just to get this reaction. Thank you. Made me laugh

You can see that in today’s EPS, GEPS and GEFS runs for late month

Region 4 is the coldest it’s been this entire event. And agree about the RONI. There is no denying that we are in a “late bloomer” La Niña

I’m not denying that at 12z today there has been a major change on the models. And I’m not downplaying. However, given the PAC jet extension and the tropical forcing, I believe that model change to be totally wrong. Once again, just my opinion given the totality of the synoptic pattern. The great part of this forum is that we can have differing opinions and disagree and I’m not changing my opinion based on one or two ensemble runs. I’m sticking by it. Maybe I’m wrong and that’s fine @MJO812 Christmas week hasn’t happened yet. Something that hasn’t happened yet isn’t “in trouble”

Well aware, and I’m not buying an arctic outbreak/extreme cold. Sorry we disagree but not believing the BAMWX, etc. GEFS model hype on twitter. Again, if I’m wrong I’ll own it

I absolutely believe that the Christmas week period is not going to end up an arctic tundra like twitter would have us believe right now. I completely agree with Earthlight. Again, if I end up being wrong, so be it, you guys can roast me lol New EPS:

And as far as this ridiculous SSWE hype on twitter, it is complete and total BS. A blatant wishcast if I ever saw one

Very impressive forecast from back in August. I’m pretty shocked with how well it worked out. I’m still definitely not buying that the MJO is just going to plow right into 7-8-1-2. Not buying it having absolutely no resistance to the Niña standing wave/EWBs/subsidence and cooler SSTs. Neither is Earthlight, who everyone well knows is far, far away from being a warmista. If I end up being wrong, I’ll gladly admit it and you guys can rip me apart

An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun

Yea. Up to this point they have been decoupled but there is some good evidence that they will couple in the next 2 weeks

Definitely nothing even close to an upward flux major warming of the stratosphere. JB was hyping one last week for clickbait and subscription money, but he’s dead wrong as usual

Will be interesting to see if his theory actually works out. Will also be interesting to see if we meet or eclipse the strongest +QBO on record