snowman19

The entire high ACE argument is based on it adding momentum, ridge pumping, as well as latent and sensible heat to the North Atlantic tropopause through recurves, possibly leading to -NAO. Here is my question, and you and I discussed this already….would the years that were high ACE/-NAO have been -NAO even without high ACE? In other words, would the ENSO/solar/geomag/QBO/(AMO in the case of ‘95), etc. have lead to the -NAO even if the ACE had been below normal?

The factors into the 17-18 winter were screaming that it was not going to be a dud….east-based La Niña, low solar and geomag, negative QBO, (favorable for SSWs), neutral PDO, no overpowering IOD, an MJO that wasn’t perpetually stuck in phases 4-6, non volcanic and it was before AGW, low arctic sea ice and the AMO went completely off the charts

The last estimated peak I saw back in May for this solar max was the tail end of this year/early next year. Based on what we are seeing right now, that appears to be a good estimate

Sunspots are coming out even higher than expected, now over 230, this solar max has been unprecedented, continuing to overperform: Also, appears there’s even more to come. We won’t know when the peak occurs until months after it happens, however, it’s pretty obvious that we definitely haven’t reached the peak yet as the solar flux continues to increase:

Like I said I hate to use the we are due argument but the last cold winter was 9 years ago (14-15) compared to 22 years ago for the last drier than normal one lol On another note, @Stormchaserchuck1 holy s**t at that ridge in the Atlantic, showing well over 600dm! Right where that record warm pool is

Just wanted to add that the -PMM supports a weak/muted STJ. This gives your drier winter idea some validity

In a real big turnaround from the +IOD forecasts they had in the spring, the majority of models are now predicting a neutral to slightly negative IOD by October. It’s currently neutral at -0.19. Not unexpected, as +IOD La Niñas are extremely rare. It looks very unlikely that the IOD will play a big role in this upcoming winter @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

The last true dry/drought winter we had on the east coast was 01-02. I hate to use the “we are due” argument, but after over 22 years since the last time, one is inevitable sooner or later……

After all the non-stop hype since March from some on twitter, if this Atlantic tropical season ends without a super high ACE, it will be one of the most epic busts in recent memory

New research (November, 2023) on the QBO and ENSO, both Niñas and Niños. It confirms the older research and shows a strong connection between an easterly (or -QBO)/La Niña and a weak stratospheric polar vortex/-AO and a westerly (or +QBO)/La Niña and a strong SPV/+AO. @Stormchaserchuck1 Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07040-x

Given what is going on right now, that assessment would obviously be wrong. Sunspots don’t continue to increase after a peak

The solar experts have estimated that the peak should occur at the tail end of this year/early next year. We won’t know for sure that the peak occurred until after it has already happened

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development

Absolutely no sign of this solar max cycle peaking yet. We are most likely several months away from the actual peak….solar activity/sunspots/flares/geomag are still increasing and extremely impressive. @GaWx Sunspots look to go over 200:

He stopped talking about it on X about a month ago because he knows he’s going to get ripped apart. He’s been hyping on the paid site to get subscription money from the weenies

No, JB has been incessantly hyping and wishcasting that the PDO is somehow magically going to turn raging positive. That’s why he’s using the asinine analog of 14-15

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

The expected July strengthening period looks like a go: CPC:

I believe Chuck @Stormchaserchuck1 said the warm pool in that region is an even stronger signal for +NAO

WAR/SE ridge city

Holy hell at that New Foundland warm pool

Yes, from the little I do remember, they were tying recurving hurricanes and tropical storms into -NAO development during the winter. It was all NAO related discussion. Here’s my question…..does high ACE from low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems have the same effect as recurves that gain latitude poleward into the far North Atlantic? I would think that recurves do a way better job of transporting latent and sensible tropical heat energy and momentum into the tropopause of the North Atlantic and subsequently pumping ridges than do low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @raindancewx @bluewave Thoughts?

That’s what I meant to ask Ray before but it slipped my mind. I vaguely remember the correlation being high ACE with recurves releasing latent and sensible heat energy into the tropopause of the North Atlantic. Not sure if it applied to East-West tracking tropical systems too, I honestly didn’t read into the research I had seen on it years ago, but I do remember that recurves were mentioned

Just using 95-96 as an example, yes, it had the record high Atlantic ACE, but did that directly lead to the massive -NAO/-AO blocking that winter or was it the low solar/geo mag, -QBO, +PDO, weak east-based Niña that would have lead to it regardless, even if it wasn’t high ACE?