snowman19

There has been some chatter on twitter about this event possibly reaching 73-74/88-89 levels

I expect the models to start to get stronger with the La Niña as we go forward. At least a moderate event (ONI) looks very likely, RONI may go strong

We’ve been playing this game with the long range climate models for years now and been burned really bad over and over again, last year being a shining example. They show phantom forcing in 8-1-2 that never happens

The climate cycle we are in right now is part of the reason, among many others, why I think 95-96 is a horrible analog

How many winters in a row now have people hyped that the MJO is going to go phases 7-8-1 only to have it get stuck in phases 4-5-6? With an oncoming Niña, it’s extremely likely to be status quo this coming winter too

While it’s certainly possible that this La Niña only peaks at “high-end” moderate on the ONI, it’s looking more and more likely that the RONI is going to be strong. I also expect that the MEI will indicate a strong event given the coupling

The BOM’s consistent severe warm bias last year, run after run for months was simply astonishing

The more I look at it, the more they do look like decent analogs so far

Stratospheric effects TBD, but Volcanic Winter said the cumulative effects all added up should definitely come to a VEI 5. They appeared to be classic tropical eruptions which injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, as opposed to an atypical one like Hunga Tonga, which was almost all water vapor

@Volcanic Winter

When you add in the effects from a possible volcanic stratosphere (1st winter after the eruptions), the signal for a +AO grows even more

The models are showing it starting east-based, then quickly transitioning to central-based/Modoki by November, late fall. No reason to doubt that evolution right now

The PDO and PMM are screaming (as are the ENSO region subsurface anomalies and declining IOD) that a very significant Niña event is coming. There was some talk on twitter this morning that the RONI may make a run a rivaling 73-74 and 88-89, while the ONI only gets to “high-end” moderate for the lowest trimonthly. Got to start keeping an eye on the trade winds/EWBs and SOI responses going forward. This ought to be interesting to watch

Unlike some others, you learned and moved on. It’s akin to how every winter, JB and his followers use the SOI voodoo, no matter what the ENSO state to predict cold and snow for the east coast (-SOI = east coast trough), that correlation works only during El Niños, not La Nina’s. We can be deep in the throws of a Niña event and they all start hemming and hawing that the SOI went negative and a huge east coast trough is coming soon. They never learn

The wishcasting back in 15-16 was unreal. I know you remember it well. No disrespect to him, but Judah Cohen was all in on a very cold winter because of the SAI and arctic sea ice. And of course, JB was in full on delusional mode and said it was a “west-based” super El Niño and used his default Nino “analogs” of 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10. It was surreal

Even during the super El Niño of 15-16, when region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, we still saw strong MJO forcing in Niña phase regions. It’s a symptom of the overall background state of the PAC. This has been the theme since, which is why I think we see a lot of phase 4-6 MJO forcing this coming winter, especially given a coupling -ENSO. I would take it a step further and argue that this (and AGW) is the reason for the record low arctic sea ice and why Siberian snowcover buildup doesn’t work as it should with the NAM/AO

We have seen non stop La Niña like tropical convective forcing from the MJO since 15-16 with very few breaks. This year should be no different. I’m pretty confident we see MJO phases 4-6 (Maritime Continent/eastern IO) highly favored this coming winter given the Niña, -PDO and neutral to negative IOD

We have basically been in a background Niña state for years now. The added effects of AGW just exaggerates everything

Think at least moderate is a good bet. Talked about this with @GaWx the other day, but this may be a case where the RONI is strong but the ONI is only indicating high end moderate. The RONI is way ahead of the ONI right now

We are in agreement on pretty much everything so far. I also really doubt the AO/NAO cooperation for the following reasons: solar, ++AMO, volcanic stratosphere?, +QBO, moderate-strong Niña (possibly quickly transitioning to a Modoki), especially if the IOD goes negative come fall, I think the event goes strong. Unlike last year where the PDO and PMM did not synch with the Nino, this one will have no issue “coupling” (MEI/RONI)

There were multiple reasons why 95-96 happened, high Atlantic ACE aside, it was before AGW really kicked in, it was -QBO, it was +PDO, it was solar minimum/low geomag/low sunspots, the AMO wasn’t severely positive and it was a weak La Niña with a synoptic pattern that was atypical for a Niña, which was due to the PDO IMO

Does the Niña configuration make more of a difference in the WPO response than strength of the event? I.E. East-based vs Modoki?

I’m starting to think you’re right, this may be a case where the RONI shows a solid strong Niña event and the ONI is only like -1.4C or -1.5C trimonthly. One thing I can say with certainly is that there won’t be the MEI disconnect this time around

This +AMO cycle continues to amaze….