snowman19

Maybe, question is when in “early” 2025 does it peak and start descending? Is it January, February, March?

@40/70 Benchmark I wonder if this ends up being more of a factor than people, including myself were thinking with the Atlantic hurricane season? Could it possibly cause all the record tropical season forecasts to bust IF it continues?

Not disagreeing with you. Either way it looks like this solar max is going to peak sometime in early 2025, then we start descending

With the epic furnace in the Atlantic (++AMO), if this (dust) continues, it may be the only thing that could help cap the number of cyclones that form this hurricane season, otherwise it’s probably going to be real bad given the other antecedent conditions globally

“How long does solar maximum last? Though solar maximum is often referred to in terms of the month where the sunspot number peaks, the associated period of high activity lasts longer than that — from one year to over two years. So, in the current solar maximum, we expect high levels of solar activity throughout 2024 and likely into 2025.” https://www.space.com/what-is-solar-maximum-and-when-will-it-happen#:~:text=Though%20solar%20maximum%20is%20often,2024%20and%20likely%20into%202025.

If you look back at every -NAO/-AO winter over the last 44+ years, since 1979, every single one of them occurred at a solar minimum, with a low number of sunspots and low geomag…..Without any exceptions. I don’t think we need to be at the exact peak of this solar max for it to be hostile to AO/NAO blocking. The high solar flux/high sunspots/high geomag alone argue very strongly against any sustained blocking in those domains this winter. That said, some experts are predicting that this solar max cycle peaks this winter/early next year. This should be an interesting one to watch

Agreed. When you see tropical instability waves that well pronounced, you know it means business. I think we see enhanced trades and easterly wind bursts (triggering upwelling and surface/subsurface cooling) shortly, which is typical with this kind of progression

This SSTA animation is showing very well defined tropical instability waves (“TIWs”), which are indicative of real healthy La Niña event developing. Enhanced trade winds and easterly wind bursts usually follow. To me, this suggests that at the very least, a moderate event becoming more and more likely. It is forming more rapidly than both ‘98 and ‘10 were at this point in time @GaWx

This high solar cycle continues to overperform

The furnace south of the Aleutians (if it continues), would strongly support Aleutian ridging/Aleutian high going into the cold season. Which would fit typical Niña climo

As of now, I doubt an ONI that low too, the RONI however may be a different matter

There has been some chatter on twitter about this event possibly reaching 73-74/88-89 levels

I expect the models to start to get stronger with the La Niña as we go forward. At least a moderate event (ONI) looks very likely, RONI may go strong

We’ve been playing this game with the long range climate models for years now and been burned really bad over and over again, last year being a shining example. They show phantom forcing in 8-1-2 that never happens

The climate cycle we are in right now is part of the reason, among many others, why I think 95-96 is a horrible analog

How many winters in a row now have people hyped that the MJO is going to go phases 7-8-1 only to have it get stuck in phases 4-5-6? With an oncoming Niña, it’s extremely likely to be status quo this coming winter too

While it’s certainly possible that this La Niña only peaks at “high-end” moderate on the ONI, it’s looking more and more likely that the RONI is going to be strong. I also expect that the MEI will indicate a strong event given the coupling

The BOM’s consistent severe warm bias last year, run after run for months was simply astonishing

The more I look at it, the more they do look like decent analogs so far

Stratospheric effects TBD, but Volcanic Winter said the cumulative effects all added up should definitely come to a VEI 5. They appeared to be classic tropical eruptions which injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, as opposed to an atypical one like Hunga Tonga, which was almost all water vapor

@Volcanic Winter

When you add in the effects from a possible volcanic stratosphere (1st winter after the eruptions), the signal for a +AO grows even more

The models are showing it starting east-based, then quickly transitioning to central-based/Modoki by November, late fall. No reason to doubt that evolution right now

The PDO and PMM are screaming (as are the ENSO region subsurface anomalies and declining IOD) that a very significant Niña event is coming. There was some talk on twitter this morning that the RONI may make a run a rivaling 73-74 and 88-89, while the ONI only gets to “high-end” moderate for the lowest trimonthly. Got to start keeping an eye on the trade winds/EWBs and SOI responses going forward. This ought to be interesting to watch