snowman19

If this La Niña does in fact become strong, the most recent example we have that went from super El Niño right to strong La Niña would be 98-99

Correct. 1995-96 was, 1998-99 wasn’t. Just looking at those quickly as examples

Over the last decade, factors like the PDO, AMO, ENSO, solar, IOD, volcanic, have been more dependable in winter outlooks than have arctic sea ice or Siberian snowcover, both of which have largely been debacles. Not great, but better than those 2. I suspect it’s largely related to AGW. Basically, there’s no denying anymore that AGW is having a HUGE effect on our climate, really big

Doubtful lol

Good info. This solar setup, along with the possible volcanic stratosphere, +QBO/La Nina (possible Modoki?) is a strong signal for +NAO/+AO with a decreased chance of SSWs. Also, the +AMO is a stronger than normal signal for a juiced up SE ridge IMO

IMO very good evidence for a strong -PDO this coming winter despite what Mr. Bastardi is saying. It’s strengthening right now. Also looks to be a moderate La Niña at the very least, possibly strong, especially if the IOD goes negative this fall

HM did an extensive write up many years ago on why low geomag correlates with -NAO/-AO. Wish I still had it. It fits with Gawx’s finding that all of our “recent” -NAO/-AO winters (since 79-80) have occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

It’s obviously still extremely early, but yes, as of right now it looks very ugly. At least a moderate, possibly strong La Niña, some models are suggesting a Modoki Niña event, +QBO (when combined with a Niña and high solar makes SSWEs very unlikely, +QBO/Nina also supports less I-95 snowfall than -QBO/Nina per Joe D’Aleo’s research), strong -PDO, solar max, high sunspot numbers, very high geomag, ++AMO (seems to support a stronger SE ridge), very likely -IOD come fall into winter (supports Maritime Continent/Eastern IO MJO 4-6 forcing and a stronger La Niña), possible volcanic stratosphere with the recent high-end VEI 5 tropical volcanic eruptions, I guess a high Atlantic ACE tropical season with recurves would be a possible plus for the NAO, however, as Gawx pointed out, literally every single -NAO/-AO winter we have had in the last 45+ years, without exception, since 79-80, has occurred during a solar minimum with a low number of sunspots and low geomag. Arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover buildup TBD this fall, however, both of those have been pure voodoo, as we have seen over the last decade…..

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

Very clearly way off and makes zero sense. Only the completely delusional (JB) would believe that

The new Copernicus model run has started to back off the strength of the +IOD this summer and most have it neutral by September. Not a surprise since a +IOD La Niña is extremely rare. My guess is that the IOD goes negative this fall which would fit Niña climo @bluewave

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5 https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

Going by past history, decades

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle, then we went into a +PDO cycle at the tail end of the 70’s. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

Textbook -PDO, strengthening and getting even more well defined. JB’s +PDO wishcast isn’t looking too good….

I still remember the one winter, forgetting which one, when the record low arctic sea ice started….all the epic busted forecasts calling for major -AO blocking because the open waters were supposedly going to add moisture and cause record arctic snowpack and lead to -AO all winter. There had to be at least 5 of them. The weenies jumped all over that theory and it failed, big time @donsutherland1 I’m sure you remember that debacle well lol

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure

HM sounded the alarm at the beginning of November, 2010 that the troposphere and stratosphere were “talking” and massive, sustained high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking was coming. Again, IMO, this was due to both the solar state and the extremely east-based nature of the La Niña in the early to mid part of that winter. As soon as the event moved into the western ENSO regions by the end of January and was no longer east-based, the blocking completely folded like a deck of cards and fell apart, then winter ended for all intents and purposes in February

I think a couple of things lead to the -AO/-NAO blocking that winter (10-11)…first and foremost, the solar minimum and low geomag, it also started out as a very east-based La Niña. It migrated west as that winter wore on and became much more west-based/Modoki at the end of January, then the blocking vanished in February and it never came back again